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Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Reb on 2012-10-29, 10:32 am


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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by John1122 on 2012-10-29, 10:42 am

I'm under one of those blue dots, but MRX clearly doesn't know anything about elevations in the area. They say freezing will drop below 2000 ft but leave a huge area of 1800+ out of their accumulation area. Maybe the think lack of moisture but put snow 25 miles SW of 2000+ elevations with no snow on it.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by John1122 on 2012-10-29, 10:49 am

The very optimistic 06z gfs.


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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by John1122 on 2012-10-29, 11:13 am

12z NAM is warmer with no accums outside the mtns. Far less precip overall.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-29, 11:17 am



Atlantic City:

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-29, 11:20 am

Ocean City, Maryland yesterday:



Today:

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-29, 11:24 am

Times Square web cam for future viewing:

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timessquare/
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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-29, 11:26 am

Hurricane snow in VA:

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-29, 11:27 am

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-29, 11:35 am

MRX

000
FXUS64 KMRX 291441 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1041 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A RARE EARLY SEASON WINTER WEATHER STORM IS BEGINNING TO COME
TOGETHER ACROSS THE EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING UPPER-LOW HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD OVER THE
REGION AND WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH LANDFALLING HURRICANE SANDY
LATER TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...GENERALLY HUGGING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHERE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 2500-3000 FT ARE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING AND HAVE BEEN RECEIVING LIGHT TO MODERATE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL SINCE LATE YESTERDAY EVENING. INCREDIBLY...BEFORE THE DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SANDY HAS EVEN ARRIVED...WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF
4-5 INCHES OF SNOW AT NEWFOUND GAP IN GSMNP AND AT HIGH KNOB IN
WISE COUNTY VA AS OF 10 AM EDT. WHILE THESE AMOUNTS ARE VERY
LOCALIZED AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IT POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS THAN EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN THE DEEP MOISTURE FINALLY DOES ARRIVE.


FOR TODAY THOUGH...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MUCH OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SMOKIES. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THIS PRECIPITATION COULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS LIFT/MOISTURE INCREASES. ADDITIONALLY...IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE NAM-12 ALONG WITH THE GFS ARE NOW TRENDING SLIGHTLY
COLDER IN THE VALLEYS...WHICH MAY ALLOW /ESPECIALLY WITH WET-BULB
COOLING OCCURRING/...FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH THE RAIN EARLIER
THAN ANTICIPATED IN SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND 1500-2000
FT. HOWEVER...MOST/ALL OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TODAY SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME SPOTS BEFORE 00Z. MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL EXPERIENCE ALL RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
I-26 CORRIDOR WHERE HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID/UPPER 40S IN THE KNOXVILLE METRO AREA. ELSEWHERE... ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEASTERN TENNESSEE AND THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU...DRIER AIR
WILL PROMOTE SUNNY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS IN THE 50S.

ADDITIONALLY...THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY...AND SOME PRETTY GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THUS...GIVEN ALL THE FACTORS
MENTIONED ABOVE WILL OBVIOUSLY MAINTAIN A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE...ALONG WITH THE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS WELL.
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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-29, 12:30 pm

Here is my more localized call.. designed particularly for east TN folk. This forum will be the only place that I post this! If you need any reasoning or explanation for any aspect of it.. just ask me!


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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Jed33 on 2012-10-29, 12:58 pm

Lol where are the counties. Nah, just messin. Looks pretty good to me

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-29, 1:13 pm

Jed33 wrote:Lol where are the counties. Nah, just messin. Looks pretty good to me

Lol..Well I figured everyone knew where they lived in respect to the state borders. I guess I will have to include counties next time beer

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by John1122 on 2012-10-29, 2:00 pm

Not sure how this doesn't warrant a blizzard warning.

Snow showers. High near 22. Wind chill values between zero and 5. Windy, with a north wind around 35 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Tonight Snow showers. Low around 18. Wind chill values between -2 and 3. Windy, with a northwest wind 35 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Tuesday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 21. Wind chill values between -4 and 1. Windy, with a northwest wind 35 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Tuesday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Windy, with a northwest wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by AndyP on 2012-10-29, 3:48 pm

The new MRX snowfall prediction gives us here in Erwin upto 7 inches, with higher amounts in the mountains surrounding town. Now if that happens I think it will be bigger than any snowfall we had last season! I went up above Erwin into the mountains this morning, the peak nearest my house is around 5,000 feet. There was already an inch on the ground! This should be an interesting night!!!
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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by John1122 on 2012-10-29, 5:25 pm

From MRX.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES OF NOTE THAT MAKE THIS EVENT
DIFFERENT FROM A TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW CASE IN THAT THERE WILL BE A
PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS...COMBINED WITH SOME
UPPER-LEVEL SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM A TROWAL FEATURE ROTATING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE/LIFT
REALLY RAMPS UP. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
TRENDING COLDER IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE AND ALONG NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE PLATEAU AS WELL /ESPECIALLY WITH WET-BULB COOLING TAKING PLACE
AS IT STARTS TO PRECIPITATE/. GIVEN ALL THIS...HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW /WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS/ ACROSS THESE
AREAS.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by John1122 on 2012-10-29, 5:30 pm

Updated MRX snow map.


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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by windstorm on 2012-10-29, 7:06 pm

NWS;;;;;;;; SOME OF THE TALLEST PEAKS IN THE SMOKIES MAY APPROACH
30 INCHES BEFORE THINGS TAPER OFF ON WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE NORTH. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL STICK WITH THE WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.
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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by AndyP on 2012-10-29, 8:11 pm

Anyone seeing any snow? Several reports of accidents over towards Sams gap on interstate 26, even saw an uncomfirmed report of one of our county salt trucks on its side! Schools are closed tomorrow here in Unicoi county, however as of right now there is no snow in Erwin.
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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by VFL on 2012-10-29, 8:27 pm

On TWC they said the center of the storm is going futher west than first thought. Will this make a difference in our area? Knoxville area, central valley?
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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Jed33 on 2012-10-29, 8:55 pm

I imagine it could. Especially if it would wobble sw. Only wish the temp would go down more. Currently at 37 here and wasting precious precip lol. It does appear though, that clinch mtn. Just to my west may be mixing. Seeing some pink on radar.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by VFL on 2012-10-29, 9:02 pm

41' at my house in Hall's. I just wan't to see some flakes. cliffdive
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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by etnwx on 2012-10-29, 9:27 pm

43 here in NW Knoxville near Karns. Temp has gone up 2 degrees over the last 30 minutes as the wind is picking up.

Live data here: http://classic.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KTNKNOXV19

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-29, 9:35 pm

It seems the temp here in Abingdon VA has gone up a few degrees from earlier. It was 32 at 4:00pm. NWS says it's 36 now. Still snowing, but little of it is sticking of course.
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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Neals on 2012-10-29, 9:36 pm

Is Cocke going to get some snow tonight?

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

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