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Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-25, 8:29 am

John1122 wrote:0z Euro looks to drop 2-4 inches of snow in far NE TN. West Virginia will be digging out for weeks if it comes to pass.

6z GFS Ensembles look alot like the euro..if this trend continues I would think that at much of east Tennnessee will see some snow at least falling...with possible light accums in the NE sections.



The 6zNAM also is in agreement with the euro..and shockingly the DGEX also

Check out the 6z DGEX clown map this morning Razz
That looks like 80 plus inches in WV wow


Last edited by Toot on 2012-10-25, 8:54 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-25, 8:52 am

Toot wrote:
Check out the 6z DGEX clown map this morning Razz
That loks like 80 plus inches in WV wow



Road trip?
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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by snowdog on 2012-10-25, 8:58 am

Toot wrote:Check out the 6z DGEX clown map this morning Razz
That looks like 80 plus inches in WV wow

Is the clown map correct? Just look into his eyes, you will find your answer.


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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-25, 9:07 am

^^Lmao...In all seriousness WV looks to be in for a major Blizzard at this point if the guidance is to be trusted and I think it is. It would not surprise me to see them measure snow in feet with this system. Truly a very anomalous situation unfolding here.


Here is what I posted on the blog this morning


Good Morning..After lashing Cuba most of the night.. Hurricane Sandy continues her track northward this morning. The national hurricane center lists her pressure at 967Mb with sustained winds of 105MPH. She has basically emerged back out over open water virtually unscathed and guidance models seem to be converging on a landfall in the Mid Atlantic region of the Eastern US.. where she will merge with a strong cold front.

The European model and the GFS ensembles continue to support the snow probability graphic I issued here 2-3 days ago. Folks in the central Appalachians (Mainly West Virginia) really need to be paying attention to this system.. as there is a very good possibility of seeeing a Blizzard on the scale of the 93 Superstorm for that area!! Some folks will not like me saying that.. but thats what some of the most trusted guidance data supports and I will not sugar coat the situation! I will be around most of the day analyzing new guidance data as it comes in.. but I think we are much closer to seeing models converge on a trusted outcome this morning. Stay tuned!


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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-25, 9:35 am

Here is the European model's current idea of snow accumulations from Accuweatherpro. Looks alot like the graphic I issued 2-3 days ago


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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by snowdog on 2012-10-25, 9:51 am

Nice write-up Toot. Look forward to reading your thoughts the next couple days. If a foot of snow does fall in WV, it won't stick because the ground will be too warm. club (inside joke)

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Jed33 on 2012-10-25, 10:00 am

Toot wrote:Here is the European model's current idea of snow accumulations from Accuweatherpro. Looks alot like the graphic I issued 2-3 days ago


WOW Toot, that looks like accumulating snow pretty far S and W. Looks like even down a little below Knoxville? Shocked Am I reading that Euro map right??? Geez. That would put down 2 inches or so if I am?

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-25, 10:11 am

snowdog wrote:Nice write-up Toot. Look forward to reading your thoughts the next couple days. If a foot of snow does fall in WV, it won't stick because the ground will be too warm. club (inside joke)

Don't forget about the sun angle. Wink
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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-25, 10:18 am

snowdog wrote:Nice write-up Toot. Look forward to reading your thoughts the next couple days. If a foot of snow does fall in WV, it won't stick because the ground will be too warm. club (inside joke)

Lol..Thanks Snowdog!

WV certainly wont have any problem getting the snow to stick Razz Im so glad this is now starting to get closer to the range of the mesoscale/Hi Res models.. because the globals dont pick up on NW flow details that well. The Great lakes should act to enhance the NW flow with alot of moisture due to how vigorous the flow will be from such a powerhouse of low pressure system. This should enhance the snow totals over the higher elevations of the southern Appalchians and give places in the lower elevations quite a bit of flakeage.

Being that its still October it will be extremely difficult to pick up any accumulation in the lower elevations this far south but I would not rule it out in NE TN! Of course this is all based on The Euro and GFS ensembles..but when you have the euro and the gfs ensembles in such agreement its a pretty good bet whiskey


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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-25, 10:25 am

Jed33 wrote:

WOW Toot, that looks like accumulating snow pretty far S and W. Looks like even down a little below Knoxville? Shocked Am I reading that Euro map right??? Geez. That would put down 2 inches or so if I am?

Jed..I think your mis judging where Knoxville is located on that image. To my eye Knoxville would be south of any accums on that graphic. That said those accums are probably overdone a bit also...but if the euro verifies there is no doubt in my mind that snow will be flying in the air at some point in the big city of Knoxvegas!

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Jed33 on 2012-10-25, 10:31 am

Toot wrote:
Jed33 wrote:

WOW Toot, that looks like accumulating snow pretty far S and W. Looks like even down a little below Knoxville? Shocked Am I reading that Euro map right??? Geez. That would put down 2 inches or so if I am?

Jed..I think your mis judging where Knoxville is located on that image. To my eye Knoxville would be south of any accums on that graphic. That said those accums are probably overdone a bit also...but if the euro verifies there is no doubt in my mind that snow will be flying in the air at some point in the big city of Knoxvegas!

Yep, You're right, my bad. stupid Still learning E TN geography, lol. It would be nice to see some October flakeage.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by snowdog on 2012-10-25, 11:05 am

I wonder if the Weather Channel will have a reporter giving updates from the snow sweet spot.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-25, 12:33 pm

12zGFS takes a huge step towards the euro...still not quite there but it will continue to trend westward until it lines with its ensembles


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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-25, 2:54 pm

12Z Euro isnt finished trending south and west..should put big snows into eastern TN...VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION. Monster phase with mid latitude troff. Good god..please let this run verify
wash



Past 3 hours snow total for for hour 120

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Stovepipe on 2012-10-25, 2:59 pm

Welp, if that happens to be what is modeled a day or so out from the storm I'm driving to Kingsport and setting up camp. No way I can miss that.
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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by John1122 on 2012-10-25, 3:01 pm

It pretty much shows 3-6 inches for say Hawkins to Bristol. 2-4 from Scott to Hawkins. 1-3 from around Knox to Morristown.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by John1122 on 2012-10-25, 3:02 pm

That run has broken Americanwx.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by southeastwx on 2012-10-25, 3:05 pm

SW Virginia looks to get clobbered with the last Euro run. Especially places like High Knob.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Jed33 on 2012-10-25, 3:06 pm

Toot wrote:12Z Euro isnt finished trending south and west..should put big snows into eastern TN...VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION. Monster phase with mid latitude troff. Good god..please let this run verify
wash


Past 3 hours snow total for for hour 120

Ok, now, I know that map shows at least NE TN getting some pretty good snows, and Morristown is in there too, albeit not as much as the Tri-Cities area. All I can say is Wow if this thing does perform according to the Euro. Sooner or later though, you would think it would reach a point where the westward trend slows down or stops. If not, look out all of E TN, maybe even part of middle TN.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by John1122 on 2012-10-25, 3:07 pm

MRX has the temps lowered quite dramatically now but not only doesn't mention precip here, they don't even mention potential clouds.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by John1122 on 2012-10-25, 3:09 pm

Jed33 wrote:
Toot wrote:12Z Euro isnt finished trending south and west..should put big snows into eastern TN...VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION. Monster phase with mid latitude troff. Good god..please let this run verify
wash


Past 3 hours snow total for for hour 120


Ok, now, I know that map shows at least NE TN getting some pretty good snows, and Morristown is in there too, albeit not as much as the Tri-Cities area. All I can say is Wow if this thing does perform according to the Euro. Sooner or later though, you would think it would reach a point where the westward trend slows down or stops. If not, look out all of E TN, maybe even part of middle TN.

That's only the 120 hour panel. Snow starts falling by 114 and continues until at least 126.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-25, 3:09 pm

John1122 wrote:That run has broken Americanwx.

LMAO.. it sure did lapat

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by Toot on 2012-10-25, 3:12 pm

southeastwx wrote:SW Virginia looks to get clobbered with the last Euro run. Especially places like High Knob.

They would definately be in part of the sweet spot

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by jmundie on 2012-10-25, 3:13 pm

Why is the euro so warm? So south it's not tapping Canada?

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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

Post by VFL on 2012-10-25, 3:22 pm

Pants are starting to get tight.
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Re: Hurricane Sandy (Halloblizzard)

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