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Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

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Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-04, 10:01 am

Since we're less than a month away from Meteorological winter here is a general thread for winter weather discussion

The latest average of the last 10 runs of the CFSV2 is suggesting colder than normal for December. Even though I hate the warm bias that this model seems to have at a few months out it has been decently close from a month out


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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by jmundie on 2012-11-04, 5:07 pm

Toot wrote:Since we're less than a month away from Meteorological winter here is a general thread for winter weather discussion

The latest average of the last 10 runs of the CFSV2 is suggesting colder than normal for December. Even though I hate the warm bias that this model seems to have at a few months out it has been decently close from a month out

That looks like we're on the wrong side of the troughiness - but it's better than warm.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-14, 5:53 pm

There is currently a 480DM Polar Vortex (Extremely Strong) sitting over the Arctic circle making tremendous amounts of sub zero temps. This is the cause of the mostly zonal flow across the US right now!

But watch out!! When the rubber band snaps the EPO/NAO/AO will go negative and this Airmass will come plunging southward into the Conus! IMO this will start happening around the end of the month and this will likely be the first true Arctic outbreak of the winter! right on cue with my top analog of 2009/10!


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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by jmundie on 2012-11-14, 6:03 pm

Toot wrote:There is currently a 480DM Polar Vortex (Extremely Strong) sitting over the Arctic circle making tremendous amounts of sub zero temps. This is the cause of the mostly zonal flow across the US right now!

But watch out!! When the rubber band snaps the EPO/NAO/AO will go negative and this Airmass will come plunging southward into the Conus! IMO this will start happening around the end of the month and this will likely be the first true Arctic outbreak of the winter! right on cue with my top analog of 2009/10!


We need to hope it doesn't dump into the northern pacific. I'm afraid this is gonna be a gradient winter.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-11-14, 9:18 pm

Definitely worth watching this threat. I haven't seen the 18z GFS, but apparently, according to Americanwx, the model develops dual blocking!!! splits the PV and displaces it pretty far South. Granted, its 18z, and its just one run, but it gives me encouragement that things may pick up soon here, like we've been talking about.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-16, 11:41 am

Latest JAMSTEC is out and has a cold winter for eastern US..cant say im surprised..been touting this idea since late summer!


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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-11-16, 11:57 am

I just noticed that on amwx. Looks like it has a pretty good track record too appears to be pretty much spot on for 5 of 6 of the previous 6 winters. Appears that 10-11 it went warm, when that was not the outcome. So, 83% accuracy, I'll take that. pals looks like a nice cold winter shaping up

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Mrgolf on 2012-11-16, 12:28 pm

Jeb33, it would be nice to see a cold winter after last yr. Im taking things more CAUTIOUSLY than last yr. People got 2 excited i think. The PV is strong in the artic right now, but if it splits or breaks apart, we would get cold, granted it dont go overseas. Lots to keep abressed on beer

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-11-16, 1:41 pm

Yeah, you're right. Lots of things can go wrong like last year. Seems like that was the winter that everything that could possibly go wrong went wrong. However, I'm liking the looks of this winter. Trying to balance my enthusiasm with a dose of reality can be tough though, lol. I do hope we start getting more precip though, as it's been relativey dry now for awhile, and continues to be. Cold with no precip is no fun

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-24, 4:45 pm

Even old Donnie Sutherland is going cold in the east this winter for many of the same reasons I have already mentioned here...but he definately has some new and interesting stats to add that I havent seen this season!

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37584-2012-13-winter-medium-range-discussion/page__view__findpost__p__1878672

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-24, 6:20 pm

Tonight will probably be the coldest night of the seaason thus far as old man winter may have crept in a few days early.. or so it would seem.



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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2012-11-24, 6:42 pm

confused Didn't know where to put this, so if you want to move it please do. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDbRtwzTibs
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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by skillsweather on 2012-11-25, 6:17 am

I heard stuff about the Polar vortex or something along the lines of that splitting in later models few days ago. So I got into looking around about it kinda because I figure that If it happens it will make the chances of a good winter better then if it didnt happen. Anyways I got this image off that picture to the left but you can already see the split taking place. (idk what im talking about so take everything Im saying with alot of salt (not a grain Very Happy ) But to me it looks like you can see the warming then the splitting of the colder sources (aka polar split). Notice also how our side is more deeper vs Russias side. Just something to keep an eye out on for the next few weeks of boring weather. Also noticed theres more blocking over us vs the west so thats bad so we need to hope this moved the blocking over them in a few weeks or we might get shafted. Still lots of time.. Almost got a month to go before actual winter starts anyways.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-25, 8:53 am

Good post Skills beer

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-25, 6:11 pm

Man..people are tripping over the bering sea block. I say the same blocking feature will end up moving eastward into the EPO/PNA position by the second week of December. Then the same block that people was all up in a rut about will actually be enhancing the colder pattern here.



Lol..thats my opinion on the subject..just thought I would put it out there!


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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by jmundie on 2012-11-25, 7:37 pm

Toot wrote:Man..people are tripping over the bearing sea block. I say the same blocking feature will end up moving eastward into the EPO/PNA position by the second week of December. Then the same block that people was all up in a rut about will actually be enhancing the colder pattern here.



Lol..thats my opinion on the subject..just thought I would put it out there!

They are the same people that said there would be no major east coast storm and cold blast south of dc without the pna relaxing toward neutral.

I would listen to those people. Every other model run wants to retrograde it post truncation, but it's by no means a certainty.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-25, 8:34 pm

While not major by any means there will be an eastern US LPS that will produce snow Mundie! And if you hadnt noticed its been quite cold for this time of year the past couple of days. Now im no rocket scientist but for there to be snow there has to be cold airmass and some kind of LPS! I will admit its nothing like I thought it would be but its definately there. Dont make me quote several major east coast snowstorms in a negative PNA regime either..cause they are there too!

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Mrgolf on 2012-11-25, 11:31 pm

Toot, the bering sea block OMEGA block isnt what we want to see imo. Do u know what it would take to allow it to shift a certain direction?

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-26, 12:00 am

In time and in theory it will be pulled even further northward as the PV breaks down via the -AO. Before that happens my personal opinion is that it gets pulled eastward into the EPO/PNA region when the AK Vortex ramps up whilst a block in the NAO region begins to show its muscle. Having said that.. any synoptic feature that is near it could change its position by simply weakening or strengthening.

You're actually talking about WPO/NPO territory there. That area really dont correspond real well to the weather pattern here in the eastern US. For instance.. the winter of 2010/11 featured an early Bering Sea Block that was quite strong and long staying in itself and we all know how that winter turned out here in grand state of TN.

Im sure you could trace down what phase of the MJO supports troughing instead of ridging in the Bering sea but that same phase may also support troughing in the PNA region. Personally I think all this "OMEGA Block Bering Sea monster talk" is rubbish but we'll see.
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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-26, 12:51 am

One more thing before I turn in..Stratospheric warming does not get rid of high pressure systems in the higher latitudes like a certain Meteorologist is claiming. Stratospheric warming creates high pressure systems in the higher latitudes by reducing the mass of a large low pressure system called the polar vortex.

Basic meteorolgy will tell you that if you get rid of areas of low pressure they are instantly replaced with areas of higher pressure. Not sure where he gets the whole "Stratospheric warming will break down the Bering sea ridge" unless he is talking about it getting pulled further north into even higher latitudes because its nothing more than high latitude blocking itself.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by John1122 on 2012-11-26, 4:01 am

GFS long range has a fantasy miller A.


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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by skillsweather on 2012-11-26, 5:38 am

Yay.. Finally models that dont suck! I know winter isn't supposed to come till like after 2nd half of December but with all models until now basically showing crap the whole time it just brings memories of last years fail.. So glad that we have something to watch now. That would be big hit for east Tennessee. Ofc thats what 336hrs out lool... I love winter rock on

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-11-26, 10:15 am

Long range euro and GFS ensemble mean show neutralish NAO, slightly positive EPO and slightly negative PNA. With all indices (AO excluded, it is solidly negative) seeming to hover near neutral maybe we will see a pattern shift soon.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-26, 7:55 pm

The ensembles are starting to look pretty sexy in the extended range. Normally I wouldnt mention it but there is quite the consensus of some PNA ridging in about two weeks. The AO will end up dominating this pattern the same way it did last year except it looks as if we'll go deeply negative instead of positive this winter.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by jmundie on 2012-11-26, 8:36 pm

Toot wrote:The ensembles are starting to look pretty sexy in the extended range. Normally I wouldnt mention it but there is quite the consensus of some PNA ridging in about two weeks. The AO will end up dominating this pattern the same way it did last year except it looks as if we'll go deeply negative instead of positive this winter.

I'm still scared of a gradient winter. Even with the negative AO, we've got to get a little less Troughiness in the pacific to get the jet stream where we need it for sustained cold and snow.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

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