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Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2012-12-07, 7:33 pm

Everyone knows about Accu weather. I look out toward the forecast for the 21st and it showed Rain/Snow for Chattanooga/Harrison. Around 0.11 of Snow. But that is just a wish cast for Accu - weather am thinking. Shows sunny sky's for the 25. I guess i can dream. But the forecast high on the 21st was 40.
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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-12-07, 8:13 pm

The AO is not shown to go positive.. in fact its shown to keep going deeply negative in the near term...not sure where you are getting that at.

I said it was going to be near positive. 12z GFS and GGEM ensemble mean show that.

The pacific is also much improved..there is now a ridge where there was once a AK vortex. I know there is a bunch of people out there saying "We are stuck in this warm pattern...Blah Blah Blah" but the pattern has already changed greatly from what it once was.

The pac pattern improves for a few days but in the long range it slides back into the previous regime. +EPO/-PNA

Also.. the AO was only negative for a brief period of time during the month of JAN last year. Otherwise it was raging positive...a complete opposite of this year! Im sick of people comparing this winter to last when the NH 500mb pattern is clearly much different!

When the AO finally went negative last winter it was mostly wasted and it didn't help us at all as most of the cold dumped out on the other half of the NH. Once again we are seeing a deeply negative AO (over the next few days) and are going to have little to show for it. No one is saying this winter will be like last but there are similarities, especially in the Pac.

I fully believe that the turn to colder has already began and by Christmas we will be in a much colder regime. If im wrong I will be the first to admit it

The GFS ENS Mean shows the 384hr PV over Northern Siberia and a huge low in the GOA. 240 hr EURO Ens show the PV in the same place. I hope you are right but right now it doesn't look likely.

Also it would be nice to start laying down a good snow cover in the northern US where we are running behind by quite a bit.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-12-07, 8:50 pm

snowdog wrote:

I said it was going to be near positive. 12z GFS and GGEM ensemble mean show that.
So..you are going to take the words of the GFS in la la lands word for it?

Lets ignore the fact that -AO decembers highly correlate to -AO Januarys. Lets also ignore the fact that the GFS ensemble mean never gets it above -1 and that its not been positive since November! Lets also ignore the fact that its been trending downward since November!







The pac pattern improves for a few days but in the long range it slides back into the previous regime. +EPO/-PNA

Where are you getting your teleconnections at? Wal Mart?..lol Razz



You must of missed both NCEP and PSD ensembles predicting a variable negative positive negative EPO


I couldnt care less about the PNA when I get the EPO and NAO into the negative range..its game on then!





When the AO finally went negative last winter it was mostly wasted and it didn't help us at all as most of the cold dumped out on the other half of the NH. Once again we are seeing a deeply negative AO (over the next few days) and are going to have little to show for it. No one is saying this winter will be like last but there are similarities, especially in the Pac.
Who cares about last year? The Stratospheric PV and the NH pattern is very different. Its comepletely unscientific to compare the two cyclops





The GFS ENS Mean shows the 384hr PV over Northern Siberia and a huge low in the GOA. 240 hr EURO Ens show the PV in the same place. I hope you are right but right now it doesn't look likely.
So..you're going to go there again? Snowdog..its one run and at hr 384 fantasy land at that wow And I wont even say how bad the euro has been doing during this pattern change..horrid! NO guidance models can predict exact ridge/trough positions during the change from autumn to boreal winter at that range! Its not a question of if they will be off with ridge/trough placement but its by how much!

The least little shift westward or eastward has big impacts. Nice try tho! hurry




Also it would be nice to start laying down a good snow cover in the northern US where we are running behind by quite a bit.
Finally..something I agree with! It already seems to be happening tho Very Happy

Widespread Wintry Conditions for the North-Central U.S. this Weekend

Winter Storm Warnings, Watches and Advisories blanket the northern tier of the U.S. Across the northern Plains and Upper-Midwest this weekend, 2 to 4 inches of snow are likely, with locally heavier amounts possible. Temperatures will plummet to well below freezing, and will feel even colder due to strong winds accompanying the system.



Last edited by Toot on 2012-12-07, 11:53 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-12-07, 9:49 pm

I might add some nice stratospheric warming anomalies showing up at 70Mb out in the distant future right before truncation. This will only reinforce the negative AO!


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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-07, 10:22 pm

on a side note... south bend indiana broke a record today for not seeing any measurable snowfall since back in march... other words, this is the longest they have gone into late fall without seeing snow... dating back to 1948. wow. cant even get lake effect snows anymore

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-12-07, 10:51 pm

Is it going to be another non winter?

The first steps for having a cold/snowy winter is the breaking down of the Polar Vortex.



Are we doing that?

Yes we are...and have been for almost two weeks now!



Why are we not getting cold?
Usually..there is lag of 2-3 weeks for the -AO to partially/fully break down the PV and start affecting the weather with high latitude blocking... resulting in troughiness in the mid latitudes!



So in theory if there is a 2-3 week lag between the breaking down of the PV and a colder pattern here then the -AO should start to have an effect on the weather here within the next week or so?
Yes..that is correct! Smile

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-12-08, 12:22 am

So..you are going to take the words of the GFS in la la lands word for it?

Why are we battling over the AO being near neutral in the long range? Doesn't mean it will stay that way or even be correct, but as of right now long range modeling shows the AO going back near neutral. Yeah, for the long range I will take the GFS Ens Mean, that is what it is there for.


Where are you getting your teleconnections at? Wal Mart?..lol Razz

I use Raleigh's site.

You must of missed both NCEP and PSD ensembles predicting a variable negative positive negative EPO

Must have. I was looking at GFS and Euro Ens Mean.

EPO


Who cares about last year? The Stratospheric PV and the NH pattern is very different. Its comepletely unscientific to compare the two cyclops

I do. There were a lot of lessens to learn from last year and some of them carry over to this year.


So..you're going to go there again? Snowdog..its one run and at hr 384 fantasy land at that wow And I wont even say how bad the euro has been doing during this pattern change..horrid! NO guidance models can predict exact ridge/trough positions during the change from autumn to boreal winter at that range! Its not a question of if they will be off with ridge/trough placement but its by how much! The least little shift westward or eastward has big impacts. Nice try tho! hurry

Yeah if we are going to discuss long range, I'm going to "go there". That is what guidance is showing. Guidance has also been trying to show your pattern change off and on for the last 3 weeks and it still hasn't happened. It will at some point and hopefully it will be near the end of Dec. We shall see.


Finally..something I agree with! It already seems to be happening tho Very Happy

Yeah I noticed. We need a couple of systems to blow through there over the next couple of weeks and get a good base going. That will really help us out when the pattern finally does shift and we start to get some true arctic air masses in here.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-12-08, 12:39 am

snowdog wrote: Guidance has also been trying to show your pattern change off and on for the last 3 weeks and it still hasn't happened. It will at some point and hopefully it will be near the end of Dec. We shall see.

*SIGH*

The pattern has already changed..Dont you remember when you all was crying about the Bering sea ridge?? whistle Yeah.. its gone if you hadnt noticed Rolling Eyes





Guidance has never suggested any type of pattern change across the US until about mid month. It started showing up around the 12th of the month a couple of weeks ago. Ive always said it would take a while for the AO to change the pattern..so I have no earthly idea where you got the above fantasy from.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-12-08, 1:15 am

snowdog wrote:
Why are we battling over the AO being near neutral in the long range? Doesn't mean it will stay that way or even be correct, but as of right now long range modeling shows the AO going back near neutral. Yeah, for the long range I will take the GFS Ens Mean, that is what it is there for.



Not battling..just trying to correct you from using the word positive when you're really looking at a neg AO around -1.. that is a negative value that produces cold weather during winter... not neutral or "near positive" as you said earlier. I also see that you are calling a negative positive negative variable EPO that of a "positive" one.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-12-08, 1:30 am

Yeah the pac relaxes for a few days which enables the jet to amplify a bit and we get a couple of days of cold. Then the big high in the northeast Pac gets beaten down and we are back to a pretty crappy pac setup (+EPO/-PNA) which inhibits the jet from amplifying and by the end of the 384 hr period we are trying to fight out of southwest flow. Sound familiar?

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-12-08, 2:34 am

0z CMC valid Dec 16th




The pre Christmas timeframe continues to look very interesting IMO

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-12-08, 7:38 am

Hoping to see a little of the white stuff this monday night. NWS has a 50% rain/snow for that time period. It would be nice. Radar shows some thunderstorms off to the west this morning.
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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-12-08, 3:30 pm

As we speak the current -AO sets deeply negative at around -3.00 and guidance models just cant seem to be trusted as they continue to struggle in the extended range. Due to past behavior of the AO and stratospheric anomalies I expect the negative AO to continue into the extended range.

This will argue for a -NAO which in theory will let the cold bleed eastward. However..as long as the PNA is negative.. the negative NAO pattern will be the key to getting more of a sustained cold weather pattern here in the east. Without it.. we will no doubt be warm.


In my opinion the pattern will end up being similar to this if the PNA stays negative into January


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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by skillsweather on 2012-12-08, 5:08 pm

Toot so even you now are saying this winter might not be good? Sad Im moving to Alaska if we get no good snow days this winter.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-12-08, 5:14 pm

skillsweather wrote:Toot so even you now are saying this winter might not be good? Sad Im moving to Alaska if we get no good snow days this winter.
Its going to be a battle between the PNA and NAO it looks like. If the NAO wins it will be a fun and cold winter...if the PNA wins..well cliffdive


Meanwhile..the NAM showing DW some love

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by etnwx on 2012-12-08, 6:45 pm

If this winter is a bust for cold and a decent snow fall, I swear I will move up north. It may take me a few years to get my ducks in order, but me and my family will be gone. Too bad too, we like Tennessee, but can't stand the heat.

I've studied this already and the best place that has the best price of electricity and natural gas is Minnesota. Wisconsin and Michigan are good too.

I can live anywhere since I'm disabled veteran. The suburb of Minneapolis is what we're thinking.

Sorry if sound like I was ranting and if I went off topic.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-08, 7:33 pm

if its going not be a good winter again this season... i sure as hell hope we get some good severe events down the road, rather it be this winter or spring.... both i hope

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2012-12-08, 8:36 pm

Next two weeks don't look good. wacko
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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-12-09, 1:28 am

Mother Of God

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1058 PM CST SAT DEC 8 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-MOZ113-115-TNZ001-002-019-091400-
CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-DUNKLIN-DYER-GREENE-LAKE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
OBION-PEMISCOT-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLYTHEVILLE...CARUTHERSVILLE...
DYERSBURG...HARRISBURG...JONESBORO...KENNETT...PARAGOULD...
UNION CITY...WALNUT RIDGE
1058 PM CST SAT DEC 8 2012

...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE MONDAY MORNING...

ARCTIC AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAY CHANGE
RAIN OVER TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE
BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AND EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET MAY OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO
NEAR FREEZING MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A HARRISBURG
ARKANSAS...TO UNION CITY TENNESSEE LINE. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS WITH THIS POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. STAY TUNED
FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS ON SUNDAY CONCERNING THIS
POSSIBLE THREAT.

$$

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-12-09, 9:20 am

Good gawwwd at the 0z Euro pals




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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-12-09, 9:26 am

00z GFS Ens Mean at 384. Sleep


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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Coach B on 2012-12-09, 11:16 am

Thoughts from Foothillswx:
This isn't quite the same as last Winter....YET. Back then, Greenland was cold, and so far , Greenland actually is slightly warm, same for waters and tendency for -NAO, unlike last year. But the Pacific and Gulf of Alaska looks terrible. Could be a wash in the end, with back and forth, and some big time volatility. I don't recall seeing so many conflicting signals as this, so we're kind of in unchartered waters. Remember last Winter there was that one system for Ky, WVA, Va and northern NC that brought a decent snow, yeah I know, no cold really. But with a tendency for Greenland blocking over the last 10 months or so, I think atleast we have a shot at one point, but no time soon. The good news is with so much PAC energy, all we need is one good 50/50 low and one good cold front to lay down, stall and then have Gulf development. There's no shortage of cold in Canada,and that's not going anywhere, so atleast cold is around up there. And for most of us, one good system will bring normal snow totals. I'm sure there will be some legitimate threats later on this Winter, more chances than last Winter.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-12-09, 1:24 pm

The southern Appalachian region will need to be monitored for a possible snow threat Wednesday into Thursday as a piece of energy sliding ENE spawns surface cyclogenesis near the Carolina coastal plain. A cold airmass will already be in place in this area and if guidance comes a little west it will be a huge surprise for some because nobody is really mentioning this system.

I think there will definately be SOME snow as precip shields from southern stream lows are usually grossly underestimated by the majority of guidance. Right now its just something that I feel needs to be monitored for trends!


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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by joereb1 on 2012-12-09, 3:51 pm

That would definitely be a pleasant surprise!! cheers

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-12-09, 9:48 pm

The Arctic Oscillation dipped down to about -4.00 today. (Deeply Negative) Looking back at other winters..there is not one case of a warm winter when the AO managed to average -2.00 or lower during the month of December!

The only winters this happened was in December of 1976...1995...2006...2009 and 2010! The only one of those that featured a -PNA for the month of December was 2010 and yes it it was still cold that winter. This data argues pretty strongly for AO/NAO blocking to occur and soon too. Will be interesting to see how this plays out the rest of the month into January

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

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