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Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by juju on 2012-11-27, 7:50 am

Forgive me guys but there is so much information on here that Im trying to learn that its going to take me a while to get a grasp on it and what it means. My background is in biochemistry and its not very weather related but science is science. I've given up on the wooly worms gaah

So untill I get up to speed, could someone in simple terms tell me How its looking this winter for snow?

And again, thanks for the education

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-11-27, 9:37 am

It's not looking good for the short-term(next 15 days or so) but, then again, winter doesn't officially begin until like Dec. 21 or so. So, technically, it's still Fall. Long-term, I don't think anyone really has an idea exactly when the pattern might change, or if it might only amplify enough to offera chance of cold and wintery weather, never fully changing, just offering short term bouts of winter. I can tell you this, until the Pacific changes, we won't have any lasting cold or snow.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2012-11-27, 9:55 am

There not much of a driving force this year to kind of hang you hat on. So it's kind of flip a coin type winter. But where i live in the Chattanooga/Harrison area. All 3 local weather men or calling for above snowfall in the area. But weather will do what weather wants to no matter how many past charts we look at. But I myself thinks it will be a little better than last year. But that's not saying much. There so many things that have to line up to get what I call a prefect winter here in the south. Right now at best 50/50 chance either way. I know this don't help much. cliffdive
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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2012-11-27, 10:06 am

Here one of the local weathermen winter forecast...http://www.newschannel9.com/news/top-stories/stories/david-glenns-long-range-winter-forecast-3253.shtml
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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by juju on 2012-11-27, 10:50 am

windstorm wrote:Here one of the local weathermen winter forecast...http://www.newschannel9.com/news/top-stories/stories/david-glenns-long-range-winter-forecast-3253.shtml

Thanks guys! I hope that weatherman is right cheers The ever changing weather and the difficulty in predicting it just makes it that more exciting. You can never rule out one heck of a snowfall season - hope is always there. So bring on the snow!

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2012-11-27, 3:22 pm

Looks like mild to warmer temps in the first week December from many difference things i am reading and long range maps. We will see how it turns out. May not feel to much like Christmas is upon us with these mild to warm temps if it turns out the way things are going. mad
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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-11-27, 5:15 pm

Heres a little optimism for those who like cold and snow. Despite a forecast of charming skies and temps around 50 here in E TN today, it has been cloudy and stuck in the low 40s. Currently 43. When I left Johnson City an hour ago, it was 40 there. So pretty big bust on temps. Maybe the models are overestimating temps in the extended. If they can't get them right in the short term, what makes you think they can in the long term. I'll take today any day in any November, as it is currently below normal. I think Gfs and EC have too much ENSO bias built in, and this neutral state we're in is just more than they can handle gun

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-27, 5:34 pm

Ive got to bring this thread back to reality..its getting out of hand..lol

Ok here are the temps compared to Average since October


As you can see the pattern has been nothing but cold since October

Now..we have been colder than normal here in Tennessee for the last four months


That is basically 120 days of colder than normal temps! The reason for this is high latitude blocking. There was warm spells but the pattern has been anything but a warm one and this pattern will likely continue!
Now..for one to speculate on December you cannot dismiss all this cold data and you have to understand what is currently taking place in the polar regions...because that is key to what will end up taking place this December.

The Arctic Oscillation is currently around negative 2.0 and all the ensembles take it past -3.0 and some even go past -4.0. Most seem to be missing the meaning of this!! This is a signal for stratospheric warming and the breaking down of the Polar Vortex. This will induce periods of high latitude blocking (Maybe even strong periods of it) during the month of December which will continue the colder than normal pattern here in the SE. I really dont know of anything suggesting warmer than normal for us except the CFSv2.

Anyone saying this December will be warmer than normal does not have much ground to stand on
lol!


Last edited by Toot on 2012-11-27, 5:48 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-11-27, 5:45 pm

Agreed Toot! We may have a few warm days, but the signal is there for cold too. Just have to be patient

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-11-27, 5:57 pm

if that pacific dont get its act together... i am afrraid signal of a any ao going negative will be false... and we only going to get transition cold shots at best... 12z gfs wants to bring the ole se death ridge. i wouldnt put my golf clubs up just yet folks... hope i am so wrong... but you watch the really cold air just get keep getting pshed further n further back

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-27, 6:01 pm

Lol..Bruce the AO is already negative 2 and stratospheric warming is already taking place....no false signal buddy
lol!

Do you need me to dig up the current 30-70Mb graphics to prove it to you?

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-11-27, 6:05 pm

Toot wrote:Lol..Bruce the stratospheric warming is already taking place....no false signal buddy
lol!

Do you need me to dig up the current 30-70Mb graphics to prove it to you?
why can i not feel good about long range stuff just yet? ami i going crazy a little bit by going by run to run of the models. lol

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2012-11-27, 6:05 pm

Think SNOW, SNOW, SNOW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! AND cold
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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-27, 6:08 pm

I wouldnt think SNOW SNOW SNOW just yet.. but its probably a good bet to think COLD COLD COLD! beer

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by skillsweather on 2012-11-27, 6:26 pm

I agree with what your saying Toot but I think December will finish Above average in temps. We will be over 10+ degrees above average for like the first 10days in December it will be real hard for that to go to the - territory from the 2nd half of December. I do think by January we will be in the all cold zone again and depending on how the Polar Vortex acts we could be in a deep cold. (I hope) Very Happy

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-27, 6:35 pm

Where are you getting the first ten days will be at least 10 degrees above normal? Guidance that im looking at suggests a strong warmup for the first 4-5 days of December but a trough swings through cooling things back off the 6th 7th and 8th. Besides the number of days can be offset by intensity of cold or warm spells. Like I said..there is nothing suggesting December might average above normal except for some runs of the CFS V2

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-11-27, 8:38 pm

for us who wanting cold n snow, dont look at brett andersons long range euro stuff... heck over half of the country is nearly a torch , especially the first half...later towards end of december, he is going near normal for us... guess we see how this pans out

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-27, 9:01 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote: heck over half of the country is nearly a torch

I would love for the western half of the country to torch..that can only mean one thing here Razz

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-11-27, 9:11 pm

Toot wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote: heck over half of the country is nearly a torch

I would love for the western half of the country to torch..that can only mean one thing here Razz
what i was fixing to say toot, means cold n with a troughy pattern for the east

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by skillsweather on 2012-11-27, 9:25 pm

Holy crap(Frank Barone voice) look at that thing.. The high is forming deep right at the north pole and our side is deepening.. I so hope we can get the right blocking for this baby.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2012-11-28, 3:55 pm

Since this read goes into the NWS start of winter, i will post it here. If it needs moving, please do

Code:
LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND IN DECEMBER INTO THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE MAY FLATTEN SOME BY SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES BY MAINLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MOST LOWS WARMING TO
THE ABOVE FREEZING RANGE OF MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR THE SAME TIME
FRAME.THE ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE SHOWING SHOWERS
OVER SW VA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER SO
DECIDED TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH FOR THOSE
PERIODS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CANADA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN TN VALLEY AND APPALCHIANS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY.


Last edited by Toot on 2012-11-28, 5:20 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Fixed format)
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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-11-29, 6:41 pm

and the big melt down has offically begun today... folks r already about to go winter cancel on most if not all the other forums... moscow getting there biggest snow in50 years and the extreme cold over at the wester hemisphere... seems like the harsh of the cold if not all of it will be going back on the wrong side of the pole... long range euro and gfs not good at all... first red flag warning was when the nino died... also signs of the polar vortex going over greenland, that will put a big dent in any chances of a nao or ao going negative, at least for a long period of time... now keep an eye on our dreaded se ridge friend, it wants to come n stay for a while... i am starting to have flash backs, except already this time last year we had a little snow already... nada a flurrie so far just yet this season.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-29, 7:33 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:and the big melt down has offically begun today... folks r already about to go winter cancel on most if not all the other forums

I think I predicted this about two weeks ago..Im sure snowdog remembers!


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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Matthew on 2012-11-29, 10:18 pm

I remember Toot. Makes me not even want to read the weather boards. How negative people are. So what TODAY'S model are not good. Why live by each model run. Who knows we could have 2 weeks in Jan. and 2 weeks in Feb. to make up for December. I love snow. I am not going to let bad model runs ruin this time of year. I believe all these models and he AO/NAO/PNA and this block to that ridge and all the other freaking items have turned a lot of people into weenies. Everyone has the opinion which is great but why be so negative if their forecast is not right. Plus I hate having these 7-10 days sometimes more forecast. I wish we could go back to just simple forecast. Look at the overall pattern and signs but not take it to the bank. I am done ranting.
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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by jmundie on 2012-11-29, 10:50 pm

Matthew wrote:I remember Toot. Makes me not even want to read the weather boards. How negative people are. So what TODAY'S model are not good. Why live by each model run. Who knows we could have 2 weeks in Jan. and 2 weeks in Feb. to make up for December. I love snow. I am not going to let bad model runs ruin this time of year. I believe all these models and he AO/NAO/PNA and this block to that ridge and all the other freaking items have turned a lot of people into weenies. Everyone has the opinion which is great but why be so negative if their forecast is not right. Plus I hate having these 7-10 days sometimes more forecast. I wish we could go back to just simple forecast. Look at the overall pattern and signs but not take it to the bank. I am done ranting.

You are right Matthew - being reasonable and using data is what makes people weenies. It's certainly not wishcasting big storms and cold that never materialize.

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