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Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

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Winter 2012/13 wx discussion - Page 19 Empty Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Grandpa Nasty 2012-12-25, 5:36 am

Cross posted from the Xmas storm in case you missed it!


Blizzard Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
417 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH
FROM LATE TODAY...THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS TEXAS
WILL TRACK INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL SPREAD
OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY
EARLY EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NIGHT WITH THE ADDED POSSIBILITY OF AN INITIAL ICE PELLET MIX. IN
ADDITIONAL TO THE HEAVY SNOW...STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
45 MPH ARE EXPECTED...CAUSING SEVERE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES...ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING CONDITIONS.

ARZ027-028-035-MOZ115-TNZ001-002-019-251800-
/O.UPG.KMEG.WS.A.0002.121225T2100Z-121226T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMEG.BZ.W.0001.121225T2100Z-121226T1500Z/
POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-CROSS-PEMISCOT-LAKE-OBION-DYER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...WYNNE...
CARUTHERSVILLE...UNION CITY...DYERSBURG
417 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT.

* WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO
45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$


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Post by John1122 2012-12-26, 1:59 am

The Euro was somewhat snowy for Tennessee this coming weekend on yesterday's run, but the GFS had lost the snow and was saying mostly rain. The GFS went back towards snow tonight at 00z showing 1-3 inches across the area.

Winter 2012/13 wx discussion - Page 19 00zgfs10

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Post by windstorm 2012-12-26, 7:02 am

I think for my neck of the woods from now till maybe first week of January in my neck of the woods, we will have to back up and punt. May be some wrap around snow north of me but nothing great. These systems want to keep us on the warm side until they pass by us and then what ever is left well, just maybe if you happen to be in the right place you may get snow. These are not winter storms as far as snow. They are like feeding crumbs to you dog after you ate the big meal. Nothing real, real cold other then 40 to low 40's for highs. Model want to show snow from time to time by then it's gone the next run or next day. But looks like may be some good rain in the next week. Everything keeps loading up for the west coast and that not good for where we sat. Just my 2 cent worth. I was afraid this might happen this winter. No, am not writing winter off but down south you don't have a lot of open windows for snow down this way. Could be that if January shows nothing Feb may be the cold weather month. But if nothing in those two months show up then rare that you have a very cold winter in March. But hey anything can happen so let's watch and hope for some big to happen soon. Hope everyone had a good Christmas and hope everyone has a great New Year Ahead,... Now turning it back to live coverage. Thanks... cliffdive
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Post by keithinala 2012-12-26, 12:51 pm

January looking cold. Nice. rock on
Winter 2012/13 wx discussion - Page 19 UsT2mMonInd1

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Post by Toot 2012-12-26, 1:21 pm

Models are really close to a very nice snow here in east TN this coming weekend. I mean it is right on the borderline..no doubt the mountains will pick up several inches but it will be tight in the valley. It really could go either way..the more north you are the better. Seems like north of I-40 is becoming the regular show..I could easily see 2-4 inches at TRI and maybe 1-3 at TYS but it could just as easily be mostly rain at both places. Another one that looks to come right down to the wire!

Here is the 12z Canadian at hr 72 which is Saturday. This is basically in agreement with the GFS ensembles and the Euro
Winter 2012/13 wx discussion - Page 19 F72
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Post by John1122 2012-12-26, 5:23 pm

Looks like everything backs off for this weekend now. I was hoping to cash in with one of them. The pattern is probably not going to be great in January. days 11-15 GFS ensembles have the NAO near neutral, the PNA going negative and the AO going moderately positive. The GFS OP has the AO going to +5.

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Post by Toot 2012-12-26, 6:24 pm

Im not ready to throw the towel in on the next system as most guidance is very close to decent little snow storm. Here is the 18zensembles
Winter 2012/13 wx discussion - Page 19 F66
Thats really too close to call at this point.. but the lack of an NAO block during this next system and the extended is worriesome. As john said there is pretty good agreement on the AO going back into the positive phase but that was going to happen sooner or later..it cant stay negative forever.

The question is how long it stays positive if the models actually verify a positive AO this time around. They've tried to take it positive for well over a month now and havent succeeded There is damn good agreement on it this time tho! The biggest thing to me is the lack of any type of NAO blocking. That said..the CFSv2 and euro weeklies continue to say colder than normal for most of January!
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Post by Toot 2012-12-27, 4:21 pm

Even though I am saying there is no true NAO blocking in the above post there is still some favorable blocking of some kind or you wouldnt have two legit southern stream systems (This weekend's system and New Years System) to track. You have to have some form of high latitude blocking to make it possible for a gulf low to form. The pattern remains somewhat favorable for frozen precip but any long lasting arctic outbreak or major snow storm remains unlikely over the next two weeks but since the global models are showing a lull in activity (Probably just a pattern reload) the ever amusing winter cancel birds have came out in full force today on many weather forums!
Winter 2012/13 wx discussion - Page 19 710ewg

lol



-----------------------------------------------------------------------------


Adressing Joereb's post from the christmas storm thread
joereb1 wrote:I had flurries yesterday between 5 and 7 P.M. Nothing after that and of course no accumulation. I was watching radar and there was snow North of me and snow south of me in the smokies. Oh well, maybe I'll get lucky once this winter. What do you guys think, how does it look for this weekend or New Years for some valley accumulation?
This weekends storm system looks too warm in the valley as the surface low never really gets organized enough to pull some colder air into the system until it gets further north but there will be your expected NW flow snow showers in the valley on the backside. However I personally think this system could be a bigger deal in the mountains. The new years storm will have a better airmass to work with but we will still need a stronger system to make a good snow. I do like our chances with the New Years system but models are still to scattered to know much of anything.



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Post by Jed33 2012-12-27, 5:49 pm

Lol Toot at the gif. It's crazy how people get so hung up on the models, as if they control the weather, and whatever they say is exactly what is going to happen. Only, to flip 12 hours later to a total different solution. I'm not sure exactly what the problem is, we just had a freakin' blizzard in AR and a decent winter storm in NW TN! Not to mention that we have had snow in the air, with minor accum. here in E TN over the past week, and one in Mid TN. as well. Then, today, the high temp. fails to get above freezing, at least N of Knoxville. I guess people want 09-10 redu' or 10-11 or something. Goes w/o saying that we can't get that every year here even in the upper south. I think people have a type of winter withdrawls or something. This is WAY different than last year people. We didn't have a single strom anywhere in the South that produced like the one in AR and W TN just did. I wish that the blocking could have been such to allow it to slide right along and wallop the whole state, but that was not the case. Still, it's a darn good start if you ask me to have what we've had before January. If you're from the deep south like me (I'm from N MS, enough N to get snow every now and then, but too far south to get it every year), you know that Dec. doesn't usually produce squat. So, I'd say we're off to a great start. Some of the very ones crying on other forums are from even further south than where I grew up. My dad and I were just talking about this fact this weekend that some years he can remember not even seeing a single snowflake. He's been around 61 years, including the epic winters of the 60's through the 80's, and he says he didn't see a single flurry some years. That tells me that these people from Central and South MS, AL, and GA need to chill out, lol. Anyway, enough of my ranting. I think we will cash in before winter's over, just got to be patient. If we don't, we don't and at least we got to see snow in the air, and a little on the ground.

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Post by windstorm 2012-12-27, 7:19 pm

lapat I think a lot of them have not got over last winter and are thinking they may go another winter without any snow.. Let face it, down here is not the snow belt zone for the USA. Many winters we don't get much of anything but a tease here and there.
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Post by Toot 2012-12-27, 7:54 pm

These next two storms will have to monitored closely by forecasters especially the second one.

18zGFS snowfall through hr 180
Winter 2012/13 wx discussion - Page 19 212e49i
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Post by snowdog 2012-12-27, 7:56 pm

Nashville used to average around 11" a season. So to act like snow is rare in these parts is not true. The last 20 years have really hit the average hard and now we average around 7 or 8" a year.

Also, we just came out of a period where the AO has been quite negative (for pretty much the whole month of December) and we will average well above normal for the month in the temp category. So, much like last year, the teleconnections are not translating.

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Post by windstorm 2012-12-27, 8:12 pm

A lot of these guy's are in Ga,Alabama, or other places that don't see much. And SC. We have been hit hard the last 20 or so but Nashville set in a much sweeter spot than people south of like the states am writing about. pals
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Post by Jed33 2012-12-27, 8:26 pm

Snowdog, i really feel for Nashville. knoxville too. Both have missed out on the 6+ inch snows that hit to the south, west, east, and north. It's snowed of course but it does seem like both, but esp. Nashville, have been largely keft out. My post was mostly about the cry babies from deep down in AL and GA, who were crying so much again today on other forums. I hope Nashville and Knoxville both get dumped on soon. I want blizzard warnings too, lol.

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Post by snowdog 2012-12-27, 8:47 pm

Jed33 wrote:Snowdog, i really feel for Nashville. knoxville too. Both have missed out on the 6+ inch snows that hit to the south, west, east, and north. It's snowed of course but it does seem like both, but esp. Nashville, have been largely keft out. My post was mostly about the cry babies from deep down in AL and GA, who were crying so much again today on other forums. I hope Nashville and Knoxville both get dumped on soon. I want blizzard warnings too, lol.

The people to the south, especially Northern Alabama, have done well the past few years. They should have nothing to complain about.

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Post by windstorm 2012-12-27, 8:55 pm

Think SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by Toot 2012-12-27, 9:07 pm

The science of Meteorology doesnt know or care what your annual snowfall average is...just saying!
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Post by tennessee storm09 2012-12-27, 9:08 pm

snowdog wrote:Nashville used to average around 11" a season. So to act like snow is rare in these parts is not true. The last 20 years have really hit the average hard and now we average around 7 or 8" a year.

Also, we just came out of a period where the AO has been quite negative (for pretty much the whole month of December) and we will average well above normal for the month in the temp category. So, much like last year, the teleconnections are not translating.
i agree with every word in this post... i am old that i was a kid back in the great winters of the mid late 70s... and so on... there is no doubt, something has happened... and its no mistake about... i can rememeber, when the whole damn state from memphis to bristol got a swath of snow, just about every system it seems like... course further ne and the nashville area seem to always get more back in those days... last few winters it seems, all systems want to ut up towards the apps or even west of that... not a best track for nashville... damn good track or the western half of the state... dont know whats up.. for one thing, i promise you... its no where cold as it used to be back when i was a kid... i can remember ice cicles hanging off my house at least 8 ft long... and stay there for weeks at a time... we were lucky to get 20 for a high sometimes for a whole week...we arent in the deep south... we should be getting snow here... we may not be in the snow belt of course... but snow around here shouldnt be this damn freaking rare... i just hope somewhere ole al gore is reading this post... because if he is... sure think he would be getting the big head even more... but i really am beginning to wonder if he isnt right sometimes torch

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Post by snowdog 2012-12-27, 9:17 pm

Toot wrote:The science of Meteorology doesnt know or care what your annual snowfall average is...just saying!

That is like saying cards don't care about your chances of winning the hand. In the end if you play enough hands the %'s win out.

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Post by Jed33 2012-12-27, 9:19 pm

The hwy 72 corridor from florence through huntsville east to the border of GA up into S middle TN, even Chatanooga to a degree, has really racked up. Esp. Giles co. who picked up a 13 incher in Jan. 11. Only a matter of time before N Middle TN gets dumped on. The law of averages if nothing else should catch up.

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Post by Toot 2012-12-27, 9:19 pm

snowdog wrote:
That is like saying cards don't care about your chances of winning the hand. In the end if you play enough hands the %'s win out.
This is the most unscientific post in this thread and that is really saying something! You just compared the science of Meteorology to a deck (52) of playing cards
lol!

Congratulations!
Winter 2012/13 wx discussion - Page 19 Sammoore
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Post by snowdog 2012-12-28, 1:02 am

Toot wrote:
snowdog wrote:
That is like saying cards don't care about your chances of winning the hand. In the end if you play enough hands the %'s win out.
This is the most unscientific post in this thread and that is really saying something! You just compared the science of Meteorology to a deck (52) of playing cards

It was a pretty simple analogy with poker, not playing cards. Evidently it went over your head.

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Post by Toot 2012-12-28, 1:28 am

snowdog wrote:

It was a pretty simple analogy with poker, not playing cards. Evidently it went over your head.

I didnt go over my head...lol

Poker is played with a deck of "playing cards" and no matter how many times you shuffle that deck of "playing cards" there is still only 52 "playing cards" Your analogy between a deck of "playing cards" and Meteorology is unscientific and invalid.
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Post by keithinala 2012-12-28, 2:12 am

Just made a new blog post, which won't be anything new to you folks, lol. Hope to nail down something better in coming days.
http://milkandbreadreport.wordpress.com/2012/12/28/happy-new-year-milk-and-bread-report-update/

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Post by joereb1 2012-12-28, 2:20 am

Jed33 wrote:Snowdog, i really feel for Nashville. knoxville too. Both have missed out on the 6+ inch snows that hit to the south, west, east, and north. It's snowed of course but it does seem like both, but esp. Nashville, have been largely keft out. My post was mostly about the cry babies from deep down in AL and GA, who were crying so much again today on other forums. I hope Nashville and Knoxville both get dumped on soon. I want blizzard warnings too, lol.

Jed, Thanks for your sympathies, I want all the winter warnings, bells, and whistles, too, here in South Knoxville, lol. I just head down Chapman Hwy early to the mountains to get my fix rock on
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