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Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-29, 10:57 pm

jmundie wrote:
You are right Matthew - being reasonable and using data is what makes people weenies.
This coming from someone who looks at the OP GFS post truncation for ideas on what the winter might bring

jmundie wrote:
Gradient winter is all I can see when I look at the post truncation gfs



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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by andyhb on 2012-11-30, 12:20 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:and the big melt down has offically begun today... folks r already about to go winter cancel on most if not all the other forums... moscow getting there biggest snow in50 years and the extreme cold over at the wester hemisphere... seems like the harsh of the cold if not all of it will be going back on the wrong side of the pole... long range euro and gfs not good at all... first red flag warning was when the nino died... also signs of the polar vortex going over greenland, that will put a big dent in any chances of a nao or ao going negative, at least for a long period of time... now keep an eye on our dreaded se ridge friend, it wants to come n stay for a while... i am starting to have flash backs, except already this time last year we had a little snow already... nada a flurrie so far just yet this season.
Not to be snarky, but it looks like you are one of them.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-11-30, 5:57 am

i kknow its the 6zgfs and its in the longer range... but finally the pacific looks a whole lot better on that run... like the looks of the tall ridge developing out there... now thats a good start if things can hold... with the look of that pacific on that run... fun times would be just around the corner for us, looks to almost be trying to pop a pos. pna also

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by skillsweather on 2012-11-30, 6:11 am

Winter don't start till the 21st so we got plenty of time for the pattern to work itself out. All I want is a good sold wintery month and ill be happy.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-11-30, 8:42 am

well, I am usually just quiet, and sit back..... However, I must toss myself into the fray. Seems like there is plenty of time for this winter to be or not to be. beer I'm just gona hang back an take it easy!!
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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by skillsweather on 2012-11-30, 9:12 am

If come December 21st and models are all still showing nada and warm temps then I will worry/panic/jump off of cliffs and all of that (end of the world!) But until then we are still in November (ok last day...but still) and were worried because there's no big winter weather makers in the model for us now? Most time we don't get any nice snow until after Christmas anyways.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-11-30, 1:08 pm

i take the 12z gfs and run with it ... showing a nice severe weather system which will change the pattern... ala still out... wash

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-11-30, 1:20 pm

Yep Bruce, looks like the cold air definitely builds strong in Canada on this run. Appears to have also vacated the eastern hemisphere too, which would lend further credence to a pattern change

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-11-30, 2:16 pm

Ok, lets avoid calling anyone out here by name on their forecasts. Everyone has a right to forecast what he/she thinks may happen, whether or not it actually does or not. You have been warned Mundie. It's not going to be tolerated again here!

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by skillsweather on 2012-11-30, 2:25 pm

Well not to take sides Toot does the same thing about Mundie also.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2012-11-30, 2:42 pm

Yeah, we can all argue back and forth about who is right and who is wrong, but, it adds nothing meaningful to the thread. Lets get back on topic and discuss the weather not bash each other.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-11-30, 8:08 pm

euro ensembles finally showing a true positive pna... omega ridge goes bye bye

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-11-30, 9:50 pm

Mundie...ive told you several times that if you have a problem with my forecasts/outlooks to start a thread about it to keep from clogging up wx threads with ur bullshit! This will be the last time I tell you!

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-01, 6:48 am

this mornings 6zgfs, just drops down the mother load in longer range... lets see if this hold cold

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by skillsweather on 2012-12-01, 7:27 am

Thats encouraging news. I have been hearing that the pv in longer range models is showing signs of getting back together. Hope not unless it helps us somehow but usually we want that broken.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-12-01, 10:43 am

Today is the first day of scientific winter..hooray!! Smile


Toot wrote:
snowdog wrote:Zzzzzz. Wake me up around Dec. 5th. Looks like the pattern might turn favorable around that time. The Pacific has been a complete mess recently.

I agree..this is about the next timeframe that catches my eye too. Possible dual blocking signal with the alignment of a -EPO/-NAO/-AO. I'll take my chances with that in the second week of December on any day of the week!

Right on cue.. guidance is now picking up on the blocking out west in the -EPO/+PNA position with some models are even showing a dual blocking signal with a -NAO around the second week of this month. The key to where any winter storm tracks will be just how negative the NAO goes. Fun times lay ahead!

0z European ensemble mean showing the flooding of Arctic air into the eastern half of the nation!


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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-01, 12:13 pm

yea, i am going to have to agree with toot on this... pacific has been a mess but after first week of december, things do a bout face out west... looking more and more likely we will develop apositive pna ridge west.... and thank god, the alaskan ridge looks to be completelyfading on the ensembles... i love the trends, and usually i am very conservative on my winter forecasts as everyone knows

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-01, 2:39 pm

todays 12z euro, first wk pattern still looks progresive... but last 2 frames you can see the tall ridge out west starting to build... which should produce a pos. pna...course euro only goes 240.. just beyond there is were the gfs is starting to show the cold pattern change... so hopefully, the euro is picking up on this also... word is the 12zgfs todys ensembles look very sexy... maybe toot or someone else can post them for us

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-12-01, 4:35 pm

I'm still in a holding pattern. 10 day 00z Euro Ens Mean still shows a +EPO and -PNA. Long range GFS and GGEM 00z Ens Mean shows the AO and NAO slightly negative to near neutral.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-12-01, 6:11 pm

The image I posted above is the 0z EURO ensemble mean and its showing the EPO/PNA ridge even tho the huffman EPO/PNA indices are near neutral..its plain to see where they are headed. Its not only the EURO ensembles showing this..its also the GFS ensembles. As far as the AO goes..it's already done its dirty work! It will take a week or two to see the results as there is a 2-3 week lag in strat warming..hence the models showing all this high lat blocking developing in about a weeks time.

The wildcard will be the NAO and how negative it goes!

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2012-12-01, 6:22 pm

Im not sure you will get indices looking any better than this as they ahow this alignment in about 8-12 days -AO/-NAO/-EPO +PNA




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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-12-01, 7:12 pm

Toot wrote:Im not sure you will get indices looking any better than this as they ahow this alignment in about 8-12 days -AO/-NAO/-EPO +PNA

I was using the ensemble tele's from Raleigh's site.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2012-12-01, 9:36 pm

I think this is for the NE but has a few maps and things on it that would show some colder weather down this way. http://firsthandweather.com/blog/all-posts/major-warmup-coming-12-weeks
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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by snowdog on 2012-12-02, 12:06 am

I put my exterior Christmas lights up today in 70 degree weather. It sucked. Yeah it was a beautiful day for December, but I'm a cold weather lover.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2012-12-02, 10:48 am

I email Tom Skilling weatherman on WGN news/weather. And ask him if he would give me some info on this upcoming winter in Tennessee. If he does i will post it on this site. popcorn
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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

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