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Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2013-02-08, 5:11 pm

wxgeek wrote:I know we've had a couple of recent light snows but I'm getting really jaded. As far as I'm concerned, this year is shaping up just like last year...lots of forecast promises 10-14 days out that never materialize. It's like a carrot on a stick. I'm not calling winter dead but I'm tired of getting my hopes up.

Hang in there wxgeek the next few weeks are going to be wild winter weather wise pals

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-08, 5:35 pm

Post V-Day monster for almost all of Tennessee.


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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-08, 5:47 pm

This is all snow in all of Tennessee, N.Miss, N.Ala, NW, GA.



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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-08, 6:00 pm

Finally the snowfall map from 18z.


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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Snowflake on 2013-02-08, 6:16 pm

Wow. It would really be something to have back-to-back snowstorms; V-Day and Post V-Day. About unheard of in these parts.
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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2013-02-08, 6:50 pm

The next storm is already being called the presidents day storm. Man..I cant even keep up its gotten so active!!


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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-08, 7:28 pm

The pattern is potentially loaded. Just hope we keep the storm track from Louisiana to South Carolina then up I-95.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by snowdog on 2013-02-08, 7:43 pm

Toot wrote:The next storm is already being called the presidents day storm. Man..I cant even keep up its gotten so active!!

LOL. Very true Toot. There is so much energy flying around it is hard to really post too much with any accuracy. The Euro and GFS/CMC continue to disagree a bit about storm #1.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2013-02-08, 8:12 pm

Lol Toot at the Giant Blob!

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2013-02-10, 11:59 am

Pretty impressive low pressure system out in the mid-west today





TOR watch down in the Arklamiss/tex

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-02-10, 4:18 pm

Well looking at the NAO outlook all the hype it showed for some great blocking!! Is turning around to do what it has all winter!! Stay NET to POS. so we will be in a zonal flow west to east. Nothing with holding power in and out!!!

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-02-10, 5:04 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:Well looking at the NAO outlook all the hype it showed for some great blocking!! Is turning around to do what it has all winter!! Stay NET to POS. so we will be in a zonal flow west to east. Nothing with holding power in and out!!!
yeah, this pattern has been so progressive it isnt funny...it wouldnt suprise me to see a severe weather threat next 2 weeks... changes are coming fast and fierece... this cold spell wont last very long... might get a clipper type event as we head into the next weekend... then after that, we should n look like we get into a progressive sw flow pattern... which could get interersitng as models hint at a big powrful system late range, which take with a grain of salt the the moment... but i have a eye on it... one thing about these progressive patterns, they can produce a nice big suprise in late winter time... like a big winter storm in march... think we are going to have a wild ride this spring... the drought seems to be no problem anymore, that will help with deeper moisture return out ahead of these big systems... keeping my fingeres crossed for a nice late winter suprise still without the sustain cold.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-02-10, 5:17 pm

Yeah! Seen that GFS was hinting around 392 hrs. For a powerful storm around that time. Like you said take it with a grain of salt for know! Really because the models are struggling at 2 to 3 days out! Fun and tiring days ahead for sure!!!!

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2013-02-10, 5:30 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:Well looking at the NAO outlook all the hype it showed for some great blocking!! Is turning around to do what it has all winter!! Stay NET to POS. so we will be in a zonal flow west to east. Nothing with holding power in and out!!!
The Euro/Euro ensembles are little more agressive with the -NAO. We shall see but this pattern coming up is definately not a + or neutral NAO look at all. And this is the GFS ensemble mean valid next sunday..thats the type of pattern a big storm could/would happen in!



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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2013-02-11, 9:15 am

Well, after teetering on the brink of going into the circle of death, the mjo has not cliff dived, lol. Looks like its going into phase 2 at least. Its actually now forecast to keep going. I've heard mixed opinions on what effects mjo has on TN, but I know that phase 2 is the most desired in Feb. For winter weather. I guess we'll have to wait and see, but i'm optimistic that it will make a difference!

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by snowdog on 2013-02-11, 10:00 am

Depends on how strong the MJO wave is.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2013-02-11, 10:31 am

Very true snowdog. Also, wouldn't it help if it could take it's time in p2, I.e. meander around? It doesnt look like it's gonna slow up any on the graphs, but then again, I'm still learning, so I could be wrong.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-02-11, 5:51 pm

Mother of PORN drool


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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-02-11, 8:15 pm

wash
Dyersburg Weather wrote:Mother of PORN drool
wash wash wash wash wash wash wash wash wash wash wash wash wash wash wash wash wash wash wash wash wash wash wash wash wash wash wash wash

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2013-02-11, 8:24 pm

lol Bruce, 28 wash is that one for every inch of snow haha. Just messin' verbatim, that would be about 12+ inches for W TN! That would be a great way to end winter for sure! Just let it slide E, although the placement of that low for that storm tells me I'm too far E to cash into the good stuff based on that run!

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by jmundie on 2013-02-11, 8:27 pm

Not sure why you guys are getting pumped over an Ohio valley snowstorm.

Remember - that's 12 hours of precip prior to the temps. Only snow in tn is in northeast corner.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-02-11, 8:29 pm

Jed33 wrote:lol Bruce, 28 wash is that one for every inch of snow haha. Just messin' verbatim, that would be about 12+ inches for W TN! That would be a great way to end winter for sure! Just let it slide E, although the placement of that low for that storm tells me I'm too far E to cash into the good stuff based on that run!
jed, i swear man... that storm comes true there for me... i wouldnt want snow again, swear to it... and i swear i would never mention severe weather again. ever lol

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2013-02-11, 8:38 pm

Lol, now cmon Bruce, you'd want snow again next yr. Surely. If not, give it to me, I'll take it!

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-02-11, 8:42 pm

Jed33 wrote:Lol, now cmon Bruce, you'd want snow again next yr. Surely. If not, give it to me, I'll take it!
guess i went a bit over board... maybe over the next 2 years. lol... guess i kknow time is ticking on us... just dont know how many more chances we can afford to swamder away...

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-02-11, 9:34 pm

jmundie wrote:Not sure why you guys are getting pumped over an Ohio valley snowstorm.

Remember - that's 12 hours of precip prior to the temps. Only snow in tn is in northeast corner.

Hell I know, but it sure does look pretty being that close. Something that big I am happy with being close this far out. Dyersburg would be bulls eye with a tiny shift in that setup.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

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