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Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-02-11, 9:40 pm

jmundie wrote:Not sure why you guys are getting pumped over an Ohio valley snowstorm.

Remember - that's 12 hours of precip prior to the temps. Only snow in tn is in northeast corner.
last i checked, thats wet snow in the thrmal profiles... 2m temps marginal.. but 850 supports heavy snow on that run. wet snow at heavy banding will support accumulation... besides, there should be shift further south, cause this system this weekend should apply some blocking... intersting week ahead

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-02-11, 9:52 pm

Mundie , surely you will take this look for Nashville 8 days out and be happy. Sure it will probably be gone in a couple of hrs but looks good now. rfl


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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-02-12, 5:59 pm

Well to Hell with winter. cliffdive I'm going crappie fishing.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by VFL on 2013-02-12, 8:56 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:Well to Hell with winter. cliffdive I'm going crappie fishing.
And river stripe.
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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2013-02-12, 8:59 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:Toot, What does the Euro show at around 220 to 228 ? This might be in the wrong thread but close to time frame.
Lol..its the beginnings of a midwest snowstorm with possible severe weather in the mid south as a strong low tracks from Oklahoma to Indiana..but by hour 240 its reforming another low much further south..which is good signal that a model cannot predict the track of the low with any accuracy.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2013-02-12, 9:04 pm

Lol, radar is obviously way overdone. It has me in moderate rain, but nothing is falling. Virga? I didn't remember dry air being an issue for tnite. Wherse's Mr. Dry Air? Tom-there's dry air out there tonight, lol.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-02-12, 9:58 pm

Toot wrote:
Dyersburg Weather wrote:Toot, What does the Euro show at around 220 to 228 ? This might be in the wrong thread but close to time frame.
Lol..its the beginnings of a midwest snowstorm with possible severe weather in the mid south as a strong low tracks from Oklahoma to Indiana..but by hour 240 its reforming another low much further south..which is good signal that a model cannot predict the track of the low with any accuracy.
you arent joking man. thats one wound up vortex low there folks... that veriies, i will loose sleep night before that baby screaams towards us... bring on spring severe

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-02-13, 12:54 am

Toot wrote:
Dyersburg Weather wrote:Toot, What does the Euro show at around 220 to 228 ? This might be in the wrong thread but close to time frame.
Lol..its the beginnings of a midwest snowstorm with possible severe weather in the mid south as a strong low tracks from Oklahoma to Indiana..but by hour 240 its reforming another low much further south..which is good signal that a model cannot predict the track of the low with any accuracy.

I know this is in voodoo land. The reason that I asked was the GFS has showed a storm here for 3 or 4 runs. St Louis has been the bulls eye but the 00 GFS moved a little south. Has the LPS over Nashville. Something to watch anyway.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by wxgeek on 2013-02-13, 12:57 am

dudes, I'm an optimist but this sucks. I usually criticize local mets for not forecasting more than 4 days out but I get it now. models are handling this winter very poorly.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by ballpark on 2013-02-13, 8:33 am

It is starting to turn all Snow in WhiteHouse. Nothing sticking but it looks nice.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2013-02-13, 11:33 am

Read on another forum there is a possibility of. A 12 to 18 inch snow over TN, GA, and Al. They are pumped about it saying it can't miss because 2 models picked up on it. It shows on the maps for next January but the models could change by then. They also said we may have another storm on its heels but concentrate on the first one 11 months away because the 2nd storm is in fantasy land.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2013-02-13, 11:40 am

Also, look close at my picture. That's what I think of the models outside of 12 hours.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2013-02-13, 11:48 am

You may be right. Am sure they will hit that one next winter since two models said so. Am going to place my bet now so i can cash in next year on those models. You know it right cause you saw it on the Internet. stupid
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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by joereb1 on 2013-02-13, 12:20 pm

Nasty, you make more since than any forecaster I've heard All winter, lol lapat

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by etnwx on 2013-02-13, 6:51 pm

Grandpa Nasty wrote:Also, look close at my picture. That's what I think of the models outside of 12 hours.

And it's what I think of this winter as a whole... it's been bs all along. Wonder how spring is going to turn out? club I will bet you this though... summer will run up on us quick. We'll probably be in the upper 80's in May making the summer a long drawn out burning hell. burn Wish we just could skip from spring to fall. bird summer!

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by pippinm on 2013-02-13, 8:54 pm

Local Met on news tonight said he was looking at long range models and a powerful storm could be brewing towards end of month. Tri-cities area

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2013-02-13, 9:26 pm

Lol, it won't be brewing when it gets to within 2 days of that timeframe, trust me. I may sound jaded, but this pattern may change here and there, but the fast flow of the Pacific doesn't/hasn't changed all winter. I'm afraid anything over 2 days is long term this winter. I'm not holding my breath for anymore snow this season.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2013-02-13, 9:57 pm

Jed33 wrote:but the fast flow of the Pacific doesn't/hasn't changed all winter.

The Pacific has changed.. and has been favorable from time to time this winter! However..it is EXTREMELY hard to get significant snowstorms without a negative NAO. And the only time this winter the NAO was decently negative was around mid January and what do you know there was a decent snowstorm affecting parts of the southeast and Mid Atlantic regions during mid January. (I personally caught thundersnow on video)

If you want something to blame..here is your something! The NAO has been neutral to positive since mid December. I warned folks in My winter forecast months ago that "If the NAO didnt cooperate it would trump any cold or snowy forecast for the eastern US" you cant have a decent winter with such horrible NAO values and the NAO has ultimately trumped the rest of the pattern since December aside for a little while in mid JAN

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-13, 9:59 pm

Friday is the last day of what I consider the heart of winter, after that the odds of any frigid, lasting cold goes way down. We may still get a lucky needle threading snow or a few days of very cold temps. But any cold as you get later in February is almost always fleeting. I'd say in the next 3 weeks some of us will see our first 80 degree day. Our first spring severe event, and probably some days with snow showers too.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2013-02-13, 10:12 pm

Yeah Toot, the Pacific has changed a little here and there, but it combined with the neutral to positive NAO, as you said, is to blame. I just wish we could get everything to cooperate, and sooner or later, one winter here in the future, we will. I am frustrated more by guidance being so wishy washy this winter. I know it's guidance, and you can't get caught up in any one run, but I still am just speechless at how bad it is this year with the modeling. facepalm


Last edited by Jed33 on 2013-02-13, 10:13 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : stupid editing-can't seem to get it right, lol)

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-02-13, 10:49 pm

The NAO yesterday was projected to go neg! But!!! Today is a new day!it is net to pos it sucks. The models can't predict tomorrow! No blocking! No snow! Winter was a no show for me. Ready for spring and severe weather!

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-02-15, 10:25 pm

The system coming in on Thursday still looks odd to me! I know the models suck. but I think if the blocking is stronger And can hold in Canada this system will be driven south. It want make it to the lakes but the models have trended colder the closer we get! Very interesting to me! Still holding on for one decent snow. yak

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2013-02-16, 2:17 am


by Jscentraltn on Wed Feb 13, 2013 10:49 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:The NAO yesterday was projected to go neg! But!!! Today is a new day!it is net to pos it sucks. The models can't predict tomorrow! No blocking! No snow! Winter was a no show for me. Ready for spring and severe weather!



Post by Jscentraltn Yesterday at 10:25 pm
.



The system coming in on Thursday still looks odd to me! I know the models suck. but I think if the blocking is stronger And can hold in Canada this system will be driven south. It want make it to the lakes but the models have trended colder the closer we get! Very interesting to me! Still holding on for one decent snow. yak


Which is it?


Last edited by Grandpa Nasty on 2013-02-16, 2:19 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Late)

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-02-16, 8:20 am

Nasty! Like I said!!! yak yak yak it's both hot today cold tomorrow. Snow today. Rain tomorrow! Flip a coin I'am just saying that is the model trends this winter! Good day beer so today I will get my mower ready for spring!

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-02-16, 8:58 am

Jscentraltn wrote:The NAO yesterday was projected to go neg! But!!! Today is a new day!it is net to pos it sucks. The models can't predict tomorrow! No blocking! No snow! Winter was a no show for me. Ready for spring and severe weather!
PLUS ONE... i am ready to chase me a monster wedge Very Happy

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

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