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Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-02-16, 12:43 pm

Boy there is a monster brewing for the SE in voodoo land. It is way out there but has been there for 3 or 4 runs in a row and it is pretty to look at. rfl


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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2013-02-16, 1:23 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:Nasty! Like I said!!! yak yak yak it's both hot today cold tomorrow. Snow today. Rain tomorrow! Flip a coin I'am just saying that is the model trends this winter! Good day beer so today I will get my mower ready for spring!

I understand. I was being sarcastic. I do the same thing. I'm ready to grill out myself. When is the next snow threat? See, we all do it.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-02-16, 2:13 pm

Lol!!!! I know nasty! You may get some this afternoon. It has been no snow at all on the ground at my house the last 2 winters. I enjoy the snow and cold. The models over the last 2 days has gotten colder with the tue storm as well it looks like the storm splits. For what the NAM is worth it is showing border line event even on tue! I,ll be happy either way!!! Speaking of grilling i'am doing that this afternoon chilly but fun smartass



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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2013-02-16, 2:32 pm

Some interesting convective and popcorn like snow showers have formed east of the Apps.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-02-16, 2:39 pm

Guy's how do you post pics,model runs ex. I can't figure it out! I'am not a retard!!! HELP!!!! I know I should have post this somewhere else but what the hell! gaah

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-02-16, 2:44 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:Guy's how do you post pics,model runs ex. I can't figure it out! I'am not a retard!!! HELP!!!! I know I should have post this somewhere else but what the hell! gaah
dont feel bad, i havent got it down either... i know i am not a retard either. lol hell i can read any model out there thourghly, something to do with paste.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2013-02-16, 2:46 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:Guy's how do you post pics,model runs ex. I can't figure it out! I'am not a retard!!! HELP!!!! I know I should have post this somewhere else but what the hell! gaah

Save the image you want to post then either use the "Attach file" function provided by the forum underneath where you enter your text when making a new post or the best way is to create an account at http://tinypic.com/ and upload the saved image to a their site. They will give you an IMG Code for Forums & Message Boards to paste here in your post.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by dahrkdaiz on 2013-02-16, 4:17 pm

Even the cloud cover is popcorn-ish.

What's with that sudden "wall" of clouds? Is that where our Gulf low is "boom"-ing with the trough out at sea? I.e. what we wanted to happen earlier to get a good snow?

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2013-02-16, 5:48 pm

Gosh, thats the best NAO look we've had ALL year- I really, wish it was Jan. 10, lol. Oh well, Feb. Is ok. Prob. Going to have another threat to tack if that really does materialize!

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2013-02-16, 6:32 pm

Those popcorn clouds are from the very cold air. And they are strato- cumulus . or how ever u spell it popcorn
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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Snowfia on 2013-02-16, 7:49 pm

We had a dusting here in Southern Campbell Co. The wind blew for a while off the lake and I had a short taste of what could be The snow was beautiful falling. ( My first official observation! ). LOL
Elevation approximately 1100 feet.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2013-02-17, 11:01 am

Mt Leconte recieved 10 inches of new snow yesterday. Just goes to show how that mountain can make several inches out of very little moisture


Morning y'all,

The mountain is COLD at the moment. The high yesterday reached 12 degrees. The overnight low was 0 degrees. It was 1 degree and overcast at 7am observation. The mountain received 10 inches of new snow. It's insanely fluffy. The total up top is around a foot. It sounds like 441 will be closed for a little while longer. Be safe out there! All blog and no play makes JP a dull boy! At long last, SnowSNOWsnoW!!!!

http://www.highonleconte.com/daily-posts.html

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-02-17, 3:49 pm

Hopefully with the NAO going neg for the first time since nov or dec! If we can't get a decent winter storm between now and the end of the month hang it up! club

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by windstorm on 2013-02-17, 9:12 pm

Mt Le Conte great place and all of the SM. wash
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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by jmundie on 2013-02-18, 11:45 am

Toot -

You can't tell me you aren't fighting a big dog post for right now. Day 9-12 looks ripe for a monster.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2013-02-18, 12:11 pm

I'm down with it Mundie! I can't believe that the NAO just teases us all winter long at neutral or positive, and then decides at the end--oh yeah, ok, I'll go negative for you. It's like winter said "wait a min??? This is my season, I gotta wake up, I overslept." Certainly could be some amazing events unfold here in the next few weeks, or it could be just run of the mill. I seriously doubt though, that we will escape the rest of Feb. and the first week or march w/o having at least 1 legit winter threat for some portion, if not the majority, or a big slice, of the state! The teleconnections (-NAO, -AO, and +PNA) favor big eastern winter storms! If it were only Jan. 10th or so, and we had all that cold air built up there, with these indicies, we would have actually witnessed 1985 Redu....It was there due to the SSW, but the mechanism to get it down here, the combo we are seeing show up now, was not. So, we got what we got, which was very little, lol. Except for NE TN, where we got a decent snowstorm, and a glancing blow of cold, followed by an ice storm.
I hope beyond hope that the whole state can cash in with the progged pattern for the end of the month and the first few days of March, I really do! Probably would have to be a couple storms to do that though, unless we get a big ole "suthern slida" lol, ala Jan '88. wash Time will tell

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-02-18, 12:45 pm

I was about ready for it to be over but this has a chance. Hell my forecast for the first system that was being looked at for severe now shows 80 % chance of sleet.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-02-18, 1:57 pm

my thoughts on all of this, i am not going to get caught up in all this crap gfs is showing... been teasing us most of winter, hell its not about to change at this point of juncture... its just a trap to get some small hope up for good... winter is fading FAST, and so r our chances.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2013-02-18, 4:50 pm

jmundie wrote:Toot -

You can't tell me you aren't fighting a big dog post for right now. Day 9-12 looks ripe for a monster.
Ive been scrutinizing the data because I know how favorable this timeframe is but have yet to see anything modeled that really stands out! Im sure we will start seeing some interesting solutions being modeled tho. Just got in from work and havent looked at todays model data

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2013-02-18, 10:21 pm

This was my blog update today

Good evening..Just wanted to let you know that the severe threat for the eastern US is looking alot less likely now as the system just occludes to fast and the moisture return from the gulf of mexico is much weaker but there still may be some isolated severe storms along the gulf coast states but it shouldnt be nothing too crazy.

However..I have been yapping about a winter storm near the end of Febuary and the pattern continues to look more favorable for a winter storm than it has all winter right around the last of Febuary/first of March. With a big PNA ridge out west and some high latitude NAO blocking its hard for me to believe that there will not be an east coast winter storm of some type during this timeframe.

This is about a 9 days away so its still kind of far out for any kind of specifics such as stormtrack.. or who may get snow and just how much cold air is available. This is by far not etched in stone just yet..its just something to think about as we head towards the first of March. Spring is definately on the way but I dont think winter is completely finished with us just yet!

Here are the CFS weekly ensembles confirming this threat. These are valid from Feb28-Mar10. Its important to not pay attention to where its showing the snowfall but to notice that all 4 ensembles are showing some level of snowfall from a southern stream system with 3 of them looking quite snowy. I will continue to keep you updated on this threat as new data become available.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Toot on 2013-02-19, 12:27 am

I guess no one is going to mention the storm the 0z GFS has at day 9 and 10? Wait I just did didnt I? beer

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by jmundie on 2013-02-19, 7:03 am

Give it a little bit of time Toot - lets give it a couple days before locking on to one storm

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-02-19, 12:40 pm

Toot wrote:I guess no one is going to mention the storm the 0z GFS has at day 9 and 10? Wait I just did didnt I? beer

Ok. Stop the models. The whole state will take the 12z and be happy. drool

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2013-02-19, 1:34 pm

Heck yeah we would! Thats a great looking storm. If only it were tomorrow instead of 9 days out! That said, the blocking certainly looks like it.s doing its thing here.

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Re: Winter 2012/13 wx discussion

Post by ballpark on 2013-02-19, 1:59 pm

We our running out of time. Maybe our last chance for Snow Storm this winter.

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