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severe weather december 10th 11th

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severe weather december 10th 11th

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-04, 2:22 pm

well i figured its time too start a topic on this particular storm system... the 12z euro is right on cue for things to get hairy around here... latest euro takes the threat all the way to the east coast... gfs still a little eratic, but 12z gfs starting to come back together... tom skilling just mentioned this big system on his 12 oclock news cast... wgn. i just hope i dont jinx it.lol

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Re: severe weather december 10th 11th

Post by Toot on 2012-12-04, 4:59 pm

IMO todays trend for this system is one of a weaker less amped system...with possible Miller b like cyclogenesis near the Carolinas. I would take it all with a grain of salt tho.. as guidance seems to be having a tough time sorting things out right now.

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Re: severe weather december 10th 11th

Post by Toot on 2012-12-04, 7:53 pm

18z GFS ensembles are definately fun to look at..really strong cold advection behind this system too. I havent looked at small scale details but I bet a decent wave event would unfold in the mountains if alot of those ensembles were to verify.

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Re: severe weather december 10th 11th

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-05, 5:40 am

6zgfs trying to say...HELLO

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Re: severe weather december 10th 11th

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-12-05, 8:18 am

from Memphis NWS..
Code:
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE REALLY CHANGED FROM
LAST NIGHTS RUNS. THE NAM AND GFS BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE
CWA AND STALL IT OUT FROM A MEM TO MKL LINE ON SATURDAY WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHAT SOLUTION
IS CORRECT BUT THE BIG DIFFERENCE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. NEW
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AN 8 DEGREE DIFFERENCE AT JBR FOR HIGHS ON
SATURDAY. FOR NOW HAVE TRIED TO GO WITH AN IN BETWEEN SOLUTION.
MODELS SHOW FRONT PUSHING BACK TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE CWA ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ABOUT 24 HOURS EARLIER THAN WHAT THE
MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST NIGHT. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD
NOW AS YESTERDAYS RUNS BUT WITH A SFC LOW STILL FORECASTED TO
TRACK THROUGH THE AREA...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER SINCE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A HARD TIME
WITH CONTINUITY WILL NOT MENTION IN HWO. STAY TUNED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
Hmmm, Well, we shall see what we will see. popcorn
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Re: severe weather december 10th 11th

Post by joereb1 on 2012-12-05, 10:34 am

Does sound better today. Accu weather even has flurries in the valley late on the 10th........to be continued?

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Re: severe weather december 10th 11th

Post by Toot on 2012-12-08, 8:24 pm

Larry Cosgrove

The intense storm moving east from the Black Hills vicinity may provide some weather excitement in two ways. One is the threat for a significant snow and ice event in parts of the Upper Midwest on Sunday into Monday. Heavy snowfall seems likely from the Red River valley of MN/ND into the Arrowhead of Lake Superior and through Upper Michigan and central Ontario. With an inverted trough progressing through the Twin Cities, it is entirely possible that a heavy mixed precipitation event could culminate in some glazing on the north and west side of the Minneapolis/St. Paul MN metro on Sunday afternoon and night.

Much of this system will be convective in nature, with extensive, locally strong thunderstorms developing along the frontal structure from Texas into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon and night. Vertical velocity and Lifted Index forecasts are supportive of a large hail and high wind event in the warm sector. As this feature moves into Quebec on Monday, most of the energy and lift will be concentrated in the colder air, with snow showers and squalls covering the Great Lakes and Laurentian Shield. A cold spell lasting 48 - 72 hours should settle in to the east of the Rocky Mountains and west of Appalachia.

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Re: severe weather december 10th 11th

Post by Toot on 2012-12-09, 9:07 am


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Re: severe weather december 10th 11th

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-09, 2:35 pm

acctually have a meso over us at the moment... may be a tornado watch issued next hour, or a severe thunderstorm watch... we c

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Re: severe weather december 10th 11th

Post by snowdog on 2012-12-09, 3:33 pm

It feels quite "juicy" outside for be the middle of December. How are we looking here in middle-TN? Also, this has to be one of the warmest starts to December on record. I can't remember too many warmer than this.

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Re: severe weather december 10th 11th

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-09, 3:38 pm

looks like stroms should continue moving into mid. tennessee later this evening, in a form of a qlcs... wind should be the main threat

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Re: severe weather december 10th 11th

Post by Toot on 2012-12-09, 3:45 pm


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Re: severe weather december 10th 11th

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-12-09, 3:55 pm

Some nice rotation was present on the only warned storm a few frames ago...

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Re: severe weather december 10th 11th

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