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Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by Toot on 2012-12-17, 8:00 pm

I must be the only one enthused with this system as I am the only posting about it cry

Anyways..how often do you see a forecast like this from MRX in the 72hr range..lol

This is a point and click for the Morristown area

Thursday Night

Rain showers likely before 11pm, then a chance of snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Im sure its not intended to mean thundersnow..but you dont often see the words "snow" and "thunder" mentioned for the same night forecast


Here is the link which is time sensitive
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?map.x=207&map.y=129&site=mrx&zmx=1&zmy=1

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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by Jed33 on 2012-12-17, 9:17 pm

I want it to happen Toot, I'm just too skeptical at this point to get excited about it. Part of the problem is, I'm sick today with flu-like symptoms, and just don't feel like commenting, which is good bc I normally get this crap b4 a winter weather event. I think we could get some flurries here, but thats about it. I guess if the low tracks further S, we'd get more, but not counting on that. On the bright side, I like many more believe were entering a more favorable period just after Christmas

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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by Toot on 2012-12-18, 12:30 am

Canadian gets down to 984mb and starts the fetch in time to catch middle and East TN. I would have to side with the CMC on this storm with how consistent it has been






Would likely be a couple of inches of snow most of east TN if its close to an accurate solution but I imagine its probably a little too wet after the front passes.. but I do feel it is actually closer to a realistic solution than the other guidance models.


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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by skillsweather on 2012-12-18, 12:34 am

OHX has snow for us on Thursday night. A slight chance of rain showers before 8pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers between 8pm and midnight, then a slight chance of snow showers after midnight. Mostly clear, with a low around 28. West wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-12-18, 8:19 am

Jed the flu got me as well, and it is terrible.

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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by Jed33 on 2012-12-18, 8:36 am

Yeah, the flu is no fun.

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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by Jed33 on 2012-12-18, 5:00 pm

Meanwhile, MRX sounds pretty certain that most areas will see at least some flurries Thurs. night into Friday AM. However, a trip to the mountains will more than likely be required if you want to see accumulated snowfall.

MODELS INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A
NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE WIND FLOW PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. RIGHT NOW...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED ENOUGH FOR JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by Mrgolf on 2012-12-18, 5:51 pm

Looks like it may get colder for a few days. The trough is the key if we see a longer lasting cold shot not being so far west like it currently is

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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by Toot on 2012-12-18, 7:26 pm

The GFS and its ensembles now look alot like the what the CMC has suggested for a while now. In fact the 18z GFS has around 0.20 QPF at TRI with favorable temp profiles..850's.. thickness and surface temps. I think northern areas of the plateau will do well and I also still think that unelevated areas in the northern sections of east TN could very well see a dusting or so if the GFS/CMC is correct.

However..the euro says just some snow showers flurries with no accums... so we'll have to watch this one closely. Either way..it looks like I will finally see my first flakes here at the house
bom

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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by snowtaco on 2012-12-18, 9:06 pm

woot. i’m liking this. bring on the cold

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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by joereb1 on 2012-12-19, 12:10 am

I live in south Knoxville on the river, do you think I'll luck out as well? This is my first Christmas here, coming from the cold depraved Florida. I'm praying!!!

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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by Toot on 2012-12-19, 12:14 am

I wouldnt look for any accumulations in Knoxville with this system. Should be some flakes flying though

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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by joereb1 on 2012-12-19, 12:31 am

I would settle for that at this point. lol

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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by John1122 on 2012-12-19, 5:07 am

From the JKL sps..


THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT LIKELY WILL
RESULT IN POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW VISIBILITY...AT TIMES...
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROAD SURFACES INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. TRAVELERS ARE URGED TO USE EXTRA CAUTION

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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by Toot on 2012-12-19, 8:04 am

Overnight..the cmc/gfs has trended even wetter with this system behind the front..Fun times beer

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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by Jed33 on 2012-12-19, 8:11 am

I see that Toot! Maybe, we can get a small accum even down here.

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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by skillsweather on 2012-12-19, 12:34 pm

Will Middle Tennessee see flurries maybe? That one animated model top left of page shows us getting some. Ill take that hope its right. Smile

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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-12-19, 5:54 pm

Toot congrats you caught onto this system quite early. The plateau could see a dusting to maybe .5 inches in the higher elevations. The mountains could see more I assume.

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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by Toot on 2012-12-19, 7:01 pm

skillsweather wrote:Will Middle Tennessee see flurries maybe?
As long as the euro is not correct you will.

Adam2014 wrote:Toot congrats you caught onto this system quite early. The plateau could see a dusting to maybe .5 inches in the higher elevations. The mountains could see more I assume.

Thanks Adam..I can definately see more than a half inch in northern areas of the plateau. Some of the hi res models really whip in some heavier radar returns out that way. IMO the trajectory of the NW flow is almost at a perfect angle for that area and a nice upslope snow event could certainly be in the cards for them. With the exception of the the extremely elevated spots such as Leconte I have always thought that area of the northern Plateau was the best spot for some better accums with this event.

Meanwhile..in the central and southern valley locations in eastern TN the same hi res models are showing some vigorous dowsloping winds that in turn eats away at radar returns..but sometimes hi res models have a bias of overdoing that particular aspect but other times they nail it...so we'll just have to wait and see how that unfolds. If you're north of I-40 from Nashville eastward I think there could be a chance of a dusting or so but that will depend on how long a nice return stays over top of you because the ground is very warm and it will take some nicer returns to overcome that! It should be noted that the euro is still suggesting a non event in most of TN with maybe a passing flurry..but it is an outlier at this point.

Just an idea of what radar may look like early A.M Friday

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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by Jed33 on 2012-12-20, 11:19 am

Earlier this AM, my in-laws were headed into NC on I 40. They said it startedsnowing as they went up the mountain around Hartford. Said it didn't last long, as it was only when they were up high. Low freezing levels? I bet the mtns rack up tnight

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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by Reb on 2012-12-20, 12:45 pm

classic downsloping set up. not expecting but maybe a stray flurry here

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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by AndyP on 2012-12-20, 1:24 pm

Which locations are best for down sloping? I live in Erwin for example, is that a good location. I guess I am just trying to understand down sloping a little better.
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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by Reb on 2012-12-20, 1:36 pm

basically the plateau eats up the precip and it skips the valley to the mountains.

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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by AndyP on 2012-12-20, 1:52 pm

MRX has updated my forecast here in Erwin TN, and I like it :

TONIGHT: Rain showers and snow showers, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle before midnight, then snow showers, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle between midnight and 1am, then snow showers likely after 1am. Low around 26. Windy, with a southwest wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

TOMORROW: A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 30. Windy, with a west wind 25 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph.
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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

Post by jmundie on 2012-12-20, 1:56 pm

AndyP wrote:Which locations are best for down sloping? I live in Erwin for example, is that a good location. I guess I am just trying to understand down sloping a little better.

Downsloping is bad. Upsloping is good.

If you are in the valley - you rarely ever get nw flow snow showers, because the winds travel down from the plateau and the sinking air causes the precip to disappear the same way that winds blowing up a mountain creates enough lift for snow showers.

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Re: Arctic Front/Lakes Fetch Snow Dec 20-23

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