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december severe?

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december severe?

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-15, 11:18 pm

the 0zgfs is even stronger with the surface low pressure,showing a sub 1000 mb lo going through effingham illinois area, and its quite possiblethis may be even more underdone... as normaly surface low pressure usually deepens even more when it races off to the northeast. this system has my attention... euro has been even more amped with it... and the euro has been kicking the gfs but lately.

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Re: december severe?

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-16, 2:36 am

WOW... the 0z euro didnt back down what so ever... this looks like a serious severe threat as i have seen in a while this far out... surface low little more north... which would allow more a larger warm sector over the state... i really like the setup of seeing soome nice discrete stuff out ahead of a powerfull lsquall line which could even have some super cells within the squall line itself... this is going to be interesting following this baby this week.

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Re: december severe?

Post by andyhb on 2012-12-16, 3:16 am

I think cautious optimism is the name of the game right now.

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Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (>95%)
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Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)
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Re: december severe?

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-16, 5:49 am

spc already has a day 4 and 5 highlighted for this event. south half of west tn. is already included... look for more included as week goes along

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Re: december severe?

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-16, 11:05 am

12zgfs says, its game on for severe weather in east part of the state also... intense squall. with embeded super cell structures... get more on the specific, when it gets closer

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Re: december severe?

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-16, 11:11 am

also, if we can get some steeper lapse rates and winds veering in directional fashion... i wouldnt rule out some discrete actvity out ahead of the frontal boundary... especially back further west... got pleanty time to sort things out... euro still more robust... but in all honesty, the gfs is catching on with the euro...

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Re: december severe?

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-16, 2:02 pm

12z euro is a huge hit for severe weather in west tn east arkie, northern miss... i like this setup big time... nice triple point setting up in west kentucky... if thisplays out, tornadoes will be possible along with a serious wind damage threat

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Re: december severe?

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-16, 10:32 pm

the 0z nam is comingwithin range of this system now... itsstronger than the gfs with a 992 mb low over northern illinois... wash

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Re: december severe?

Post by Toot on 2012-12-17, 8:48 am

Im not really impressed with much severe with this system. Im betting most of the severe weather is down closer to the gulf where there will be more instability to work with. If it were late October early November it would be a much different story.

Anyways here is the latest from the SPC
Code:
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0218 AM CST MON DEC 17 2012
 
  VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX...EXTREME SERN OK
  THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
 
  ...SYNOPSIS...
 
  MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE SPEED AND
  AMPLITUDE OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
  ACROSS THE SWRN STATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY
  EWD THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND LOWER MS VALLEY
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF ROCKIES
  AS EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
  INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NEWD THROUGH THE MID
  MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEWD MOVING POLAR FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE
  PACIFIC FRONT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MID-LOWER MS
  VALLEY REGIONS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE SFC LOW
  OVER IL SWWD INTO MS/LA BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
 
  ...EXTREME ERN OK...NERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
 
  PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT WITH THIS
  SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. COLD FRONT THAT WILL
  MOVE OFF THE TX AND LA COASTS MONDAY WILL SHUNT RICHER LOW LEVEL
  MOISTURE AT LEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CNTRL GULF. HOWEVER...SLY
  BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WRN GULF LATER TUESDAY
  IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
  WILL ADVECT THROUGH ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
  INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO AROUND 60 AS
  FAR NORTH AS ARKANSAS AND UPPER 60S NEAR THE TX/LA COASTS. SOME
  POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE AXIS OF
  MOISTURE RETURN...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
  RATES MAY SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT MUCAPE TO AOB 500 J/KG.
 
  LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
  WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ALONG LEADING EDGE
  OF DPVA ALOFT FROM NERN TX THROUGH ERN OK/WRN AR INTO SWRN MO.
  DESTABILIZATION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO A NARROW CORRIDOR IN
  VICINITY OF THE PROGRESSIVE FRONT AS DEEPER MESOSCALE ASCENT
  OVERTAKES THE MOIST AXIS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY
  PRODUCE LIMITED LIGHTNING DUE TO ITS LOW TOPPED NATURE WITH EL
  TEMPERATURES AOA -20C. NEVERTHELESS THE EVOLVING SQUALL LINE WILL BE
  EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS WITH LLJ STRENGTHENING TO
  AOA 50 KT. LEWP AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF TRANSFERRING HIGHER
  MOMENTUM AIR WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING GUSTS DOWN TO THE SFC WILL BE
  THE MAIN THREAT AS ACTIVITY ADVANCES THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY
  OVERNIGHT.
 
  HAVE SCALED BACK ON PROBABILITIES FROM DAY 4 WITH ONLY 15% SLIGHT
  RISK CATEGORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LIMITING CONSTRAINTS OF THE
  EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

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Re: december severe?

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-17, 9:15 am

no, whats really hurting this ssystem is the spee of it. its to damn progressive... not enough time to buid up any deep moisture return from the gulf, in which is hurting the instability... time of month has nothing to do with this ... still think some iso severe for western tn

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Re: december severe?

Post by Toot on 2012-12-17, 9:33 am

tennessee storm09 wrote: time of month has nothing to do with this ...

LOL...Time of year has everything to do with it Bruce. I agree with you.. if it slowed down it would be more impressive but if it were earlier in the fall it would be much more impressive as the airmass out ahead of it would be much warmer creating much more instability. Climatology carries a big stick!

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Re: december severe?

Post by andyhb on 2012-12-17, 1:37 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:no, whats really hurting this ssystem is the spee of it. its to damn progressive... not enough time to buid up any deep moisture return from the gulf, in which is hurting the instability... time of month has nothing to do with this ... still think some iso severe for western tn
Time of the month/year has everything to do with it, we are near the shortest day of the year...thus less daytime heating...thus less instability. The relatively warm mild level temps for this time of year aren't helping either. It would help if this trough was more negatively tilted and/or further south, then you would have some of the cooler mid level temps overspreading the warm sector.

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Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (>95%)
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)
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Re: december severe?

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-17, 5:34 pm

andyhb wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:no, whats really hurting this ssystem is the spee of it. its to damn progressive... not enough time to buid up any deep moisture return from the gulf, in which is hurting the instability... time of month has nothing to do with this ... still think some iso severe for western tn
Time of the month/year has everything to do with it, we are near the shortest day of the year...thus less daytime heating...thus less instability. The relatively warm mild level temps for this time of year aren't helping either. It would help if this trough was more negatively tilted and/or further south, then you would have some of the cooler mid level temps overspreading the warm sector.
been some very intense severe outbreaks during mid dead of winter... the famous meg outbreak of january 99... that even happened during the over night early morning hours... it was a long duration event also

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Re: december severe?

Post by andyhb on 2012-12-17, 10:51 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:been some very intense severe outbreaks during mid dead of winter... the famous meg outbreak of january 99... that even happened during the over night early morning hours... it was a long duration event also
That event had better thermodynamics to work with and was a full month after this possible event...so it's not a great comparison.

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PDS Tornado Watch 235 Probabilities (AL/MS/GA/TN on April 27th, 2011)
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (>95%)
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)
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Re: december severe?

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-18, 5:59 am

i know its the 6z gfs... but if we dont get any severe weather out of this system here... i am giving up till spring.. i am not wishcasting either... tired of wasting these dynamic systems to the side. meg is already hinting on more of a severe threat with this after xmas system... we see

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Re: december severe?

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-12-18, 6:30 am

I see that Reed Timmer is targeting Arkansas tomorrow. I have not had time to look at things but apparently he sees something.

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Re: december severe?

Post by Eric on 2012-12-18, 9:28 am

Dyersburg Weather wrote:I see that Reed Timmer is targeting Arkansas tomorrow. I have not had time to look at things but apparently he sees something.

Probably chasing the triple point.

Wow....what an impressive synoptic setup with near model consensus across all the global suites, and yet, thermodynamic profiles are trash and instability values are laughingly non-existent. If this arrived to our front doorstep and the calendar read March instead of mid-December...

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Re: december severe?

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-18, 9:19 pm

i know i may catch some slack for starting this again... but, i really think there is going to be a nasty severe side to this system... if models hold track... there is one hell of a triple point setting up just to the nw of me... like extreme nw tenn and ne arkie border or perhaps the missouri bootheel... if we can get any instability... we are looking at some nasty threats... including evrything from twisters to hail and in between... i know eric has been discounting the instability part... but that kind of strong sw jet streak... we can over come some of that... as it will create its own instability... the wind fields and shear is insane.

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Re: december severe?

Post by Matthew on 2012-12-18, 11:41 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:i know i may catch some slack for starting this again... but, i really think there is going to be a nasty severe side to this system... if models hold track... there is one hell of a triple point setting up just to the nw of me... like extreme nw tenn and ne arkie border or perhaps the missouri bootheel... if we can get any instability... we are looking at some nasty threats... including evrything from twisters to hail and in between... i know eric has been discounting the instability part... but that kind of strong sw jet streak... we can over come some of that... as it will create its own instability... the wind fields and shear is insane.
Bruce you sure do love severe wx. I believe when the models get this sorted out the LP will be more south and this area will be a chilly rain. Maybe some backside snow. I just do not see anything more in severe wx than what we had yesterday here. This could change no doubt.
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Re: december severe?

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-18, 11:55 pm

Matthew wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:i know i may catch some slack for starting this again... but, i really think there is going to be a nasty severe side to this system... if models hold track... there is one hell of a triple point setting up just to the nw of me... like extreme nw tenn and ne arkie border or perhaps the missouri bootheel... if we can get any instability... we are looking at some nasty threats... including evrything from twisters to hail and in between... i know eric has been discounting the instability part... but that kind of strong sw jet streak... we can over come some of that... as it will create its own instability... the wind fields and shear is insane.
Bruce you sure do love severe wx. I believe when the models get this sorted out the LP will be more south and this area will be a chilly rain. Maybe some backside snow. I just do not see anything more in severe wx than what we had yesterday here. This could change no doubt.
I just havent seen the good blocking signals to keep it south matt, but the gfs just threw me a curve ball... i think it will change back

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Re: december severe?

Post by Eric on 2012-12-19, 9:22 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:i know i may catch some slack for starting this again... but, i really think there is going to be a nasty severe side to this system... if models hold track... there is one hell of a triple point setting up just to the nw of me... like extreme nw tenn and ne arkie border or perhaps the missouri bootheel... if we can get any instability... we are looking at some nasty threats... including evrything from twisters to hail and in between... i know eric has been discounting the instability part... but that kind of strong sw jet streak... we can over come some of that... as it will create its own instability... the wind fields and shear is insane.

The wind fields are quite impressive, but with positive LI's, you're not going to get any lift. Further, given the lack of instability, how do you expect updrafts to sustain themselves given the progged helicity values? I'm curious...how do you expect this thing to "create it's own instability"?

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Re: december severe?

Post by Eric on 2012-12-19, 5:06 pm

From OHX:
SOME OF WHICH WILL BE
STRONG TO SEVERE TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ONCE
THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THERE IS SIMPLY NO
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR SEVERE WX DUE TO POOR THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES AND A STABLE BL. NEVERTHELESS...WITH SUCH STRONG SHEAR
ALOFT /925MB WINDS OF 50-60 KTS/ CANNOT RULE OUT ANY OF THE MORE
INTENSE CONVECTIVE CELLS MIXING DOWN THESE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ALONG THE TN RIVER.

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Re: december severe?

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-19, 9:01 pm

Eric wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:i know i may catch some slack for starting this again... but, i really think there is going to be a nasty severe side to this system... if models hold track... there is one hell of a triple point setting up just to the nw of me... like extreme nw tenn and ne arkie border or perhaps the missouri bootheel... if we can get any instability... we are looking at some nasty threats... including evrything from twisters to hail and in between... i know eric has been discounting the instability part... but that kind of strong sw jet streak... we can over come some of that... as it will create its own instability... the wind fields and shear is insane.

The wind fields are quite impressive, but with positive LI's, you're not going to get any lift. Further, given the lack of instability, how do you expect updrafts to sustain themselves given the progged helicity values? I'm curious...how do you expect this thing to "create it's own instability"?
all you have to do is go back and look at the january 1999 setup... instability nill... over powered by low level shear and a screaming sw jet streak... course that was a insane event. still like severe threat on the xmas event

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Re: december severe?

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-12-19, 10:29 pm

Timmer saying strong long lived tornadoes possible in West Ark. Things starting to blow up over that way. There are a couple of warnings now. Surprises me. 61 degrees and dewpoint of 53 in Cassville , Mo where there is a warning.

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Re: december severe?

Post by andyhb on 2012-12-20, 3:07 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:all you have to do is go back and look at the january 1999 setup... instability nill... over powered by low level shear and a screaming sw jet streak... course that was a insane event. still like severe threat on the xmas event
Lolwut. Instability was not nil with the 1/21/99 or 1/17/99 setups. It was not overpowered by the low level shear, instability values were similar to the 1/22 event this year (except with more favorable trough orientation, especially in the 1/21/99, for tornadic supercells), perhaps even 3/2. Research before you start tossing out figures like this. Looking back at the high risk text from the 1/21 event, modified CAPES were in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, hardly nil.

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Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (>95%)
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (>95%)
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)
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