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Post Christmas Storm

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Post Christmas Storm

Post by Toot on 2012-12-20, 10:35 pm

Since nobody else wants to start a thread..I will! This will also free up the winter wx discussion thread for pattern talk. I have seen plenty enough support for a decent winter storm to affect a large portion of the state. For everyone that dont know...Boxing day is a Canadian holiday that falls the day after Christmas..Dec 26th. Just two winters ago (2010/11) there was a similar storm system (they now refer to as "The Boxing Day Blizzard") around the same timeframe (Did I tell you that 2010/11 was and is a good analog for this winter right now?) that actually gave many spots around here a white Christmas! This one looks to be just a day or two late and a dollar short of another possible white Christmas!

If you remember... the CFSV2 has predicted a southern stream snowstorm for this timeframe for almost a month now. That model also nailed most of the month of December with the warmer than normal temperatures. So..I will have to take back the bad things that I have said about that particular model as it has been whooping some ass (Including mine) and it pretty much says colder than normal from now well on into late January. Anyways..there is a nice west based block/50-50 low setting up and models are beginning to converge on a general track for this system.

Everybody is all hot and bothered over this storm system so I decided to put together a (NHC style) cone of uncertainty. The black lines represent my opinion of where the eastern and western most points of the actual storm center could possibly track. I feel that the lakes cutter track is very unlikely and lean more towards a path right down the middle of my cone of uncertainty! Of course exactly where the stormcenter tracks will decide who sees snow and who dont so I have narrowed it down a little bit here! Here is where I think it is still possible for this storm to track


Last edited by Toot on 2012-12-20, 11:44 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Clarksville Snowman on 2012-12-20, 10:41 pm

Let's get the MOJO a rockin!! Bring the SNOW TO TENNESSEE rock on

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by John1122 on 2012-12-20, 11:39 pm

This storm has been all over the place this week, but most of the runs have been consistent in showing Tennessee receiving snowfall from it. Some much more than others. But today the GFS runs have been showing 1-4 inches across various areas of the state. 18z shifted the heavy show from Western TN/KY to Western NC and VA. I'm thinking Toots track has a decent chance of coming to pass.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by snowdog on 2012-12-20, 11:49 pm

Looks like 00z GFS went a bit north and west of the 12z run.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-12-20, 11:52 pm

snowdog wrote:Looks like 00z GFS went a bit north and west of the 12z run.

Well at least I can be happy for a few hours. Until the next run rfl

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by skillsweather on 2012-12-21, 12:03 am

I think the bigger snows will be to our north and west but I think alot of people will be happy. We might not get the 4-8 inch stuff but heck after last year 2-4" will be crazy. Especially given how warm Decembers average will be and how warm 2012 in total was, And the fact were not even in January.. Merry Christmas!

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by John1122 on 2012-12-21, 12:08 am

That particular run would probably a bit far NW for almost everyone but maybe Dyersburg.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Toot on 2012-12-21, 1:08 am

0Z Canadian shifted pretty far east with a coastal storm..have to see what the doc says in the morning Sleep


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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-12-21, 7:46 am

The Euro and GFS are West, but this solution will change. As long as this storm does not trend to a lakes cutter I think everyone will see some snow.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by John1122 on 2012-12-21, 7:54 am

The GFS ens were a bit more S/SE with it. The Canadian ens are excellent. The Canadian OP was a bit far S/SE for West TN especially. The NOGAPS was of course nearly perfect. The Euro and GFS OP's were both cold chasing moisture for the most part.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Toot on 2012-12-21, 8:48 am

latest GFS and EURO ensemble mean look alot like my track..stormcenter cuts just east of the Apps.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by snowdog on 2012-12-21, 9:52 am

00z Euro Ens has a weird look to it. At hr 120 there is a closed ULL in OKC. Then it continues to strengthen but ends up over Chatty. So it moves almost due east while strengthening quite a bit. Also during this time, the surface low weakens yet the surface low and ULL are almost on top of each other by hr. 144.

I'm guessing there is a lot of back and forth on the ensemble members on the timing of the phase or lack thereof.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by snowdog on 2012-12-21, 10:09 am

06z GFS Ens mean looks pretty close to the 12z run yesterday that gave Nashville big amounts.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-12-21, 10:22 am

Where do you look at the ensemble members at? I have been trying to find them.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by snowdog on 2012-12-21, 10:28 am

Raleigh's site. Scroll down to ensembles. You can view them as a mean or view each one separately.

LINK TO SITE

edit: If you use that site, just remember to refresh your browser or you might be looking at an old cached version of an old model run.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-12-21, 10:40 am

Thank you for that!

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by snowdog on 2012-12-21, 11:09 am

Toot you better start reeling that big fish in, its swimming away. 12z GFS says....shake the magic 8 ball....WEST.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-12-21, 11:26 am

Heck I do not see how anyone can have confidence on where this storm is going... The models have been all over the place.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by snowdog on 2012-12-21, 11:39 am

Its one of those phaser systems. Hell you might not know till 24 hours before the storm where it is going. It all depends on where and how it phases. Then you have to figure out where and how big the deform band will be.

Basically each model run you are looking for 3 things
a) Is the southern and northern piece of energy there
b) do they come together (phase) and thus bring down the northern stream to give you proper temps
c) is it within 300 miles of where you live

If all 3 of those things are answered yes, then it was a good model run.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-21, 1:38 pm

wow euro 12 for west tn... i take that and run with it yall.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by snowdog on 2012-12-21, 2:00 pm

12z Euro per Wunderground. Looks like the goodies just miss Nashville. Ohh well, its over, next. :joking:



Last edited by snowdog on 2012-12-21, 2:51 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by 1234snow on 2012-12-21, 2:48 pm

Well after much indecision between the models (especially the GFS) it seems like now the most probable solution is for the 500mb low to close off west of the Mississippi River or very close to it and then track through TN and up close to the KY/WV border before the surface low transfers to the coast. That normally doesn't bode well for much of East Tennessee. I believe it will be very hard to get any accumulating snowfall east of Nashville with this scenario. The dryslot and warm air advection will be a huge problem in eastern TN as the low wraps up while the deformation band rages on out to the west.

The trough is simply not digging enough as it was modeled a few days ago. The ridge out in the Rockies is much flatter than progged a few days ago. The closed low/trough off the Pacific coast is crushing that ridge and flattening it out. Our post Christmas trough was progged to dig all the way to the Mexican border and now it seems like it won't dig any further south than Dallas. But the flattening of the ridge and the confluence in Eastern Canada should keep our shortwave moving eastward even as it cuts off. So, I believe the Great Lakes solution is strongly off the table.

Even though this will be a good size storm, it just looks less impressive than it did a few days ago. This includes the rain part of the storm, even now it doesn't look like as much moisture can be dragged up from the Gulf as before, but still alot of moisture.

Sorry my first post was negative. I believe someone will get clocked out in Western Tennessee as the closed low passes to the east as the deform band swings from southwest to northeast. The confluence in the Northeast needs to hang on for dear life and hopefully it can stay put in place. The lead shortwave/clipper that rolls through Christmas Eve should play a big role in that. If that happens then there is a better chance that our trough can head further east. Where the low closes off will also play a big role as well.

Even if this storm doesn't work out for most or all of us, it definately has a shot at helping us with any energy that may come through around New Years. With most pattern changes it can be a step down process.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-12-21, 2:58 pm

snowdog wrote:12z Euro per Wunderground. Looks like the goodies just miss Nashville. Ohh well, its over, next. :joking:


uh oh rock on stoned drool Shocked

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Snowflake on 2012-12-21, 4:09 pm

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2012

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-222015-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
305 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2012 /205 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING.

LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK PRODUCING LIKELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING THE
RAIN TO SNOW. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

$$
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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Reb on 2012-12-21, 4:13 pm

wow MRX biting big time

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

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