Re: Post Christmas Storm

by **Clarksville Snowman** 2012-12-24, 3:07 pm

If we can get yet aother jog to the east it will get interesting! popcorn

by **Toot** 2012-12-24, 3:30 pm

Latest euro supporting my final call with the 2-4 near Memphis and Clarksville with much higher amounts near Dyersburg. Lighter amounts as you go eastward

Post Christmas Storm - Page 5 547401_569108263102887_469467313_n

Post Christmas Storm - Page 5 547401_569108263102887_469467313_n

by **kailynleto** 2012-12-24, 3:36 pm

What's funny about all the modeling is that MEG is downplaying the forecast, not so much in terms of snow, but in terms of snow and a low of 35 with any accumulation. Um...ok?

by **Adam2014** 2012-12-24, 3:40 pm

I mean the models clearly have areas getting to freezing don't they?

by **kailynleto** 2012-12-24, 3:44 pm

Adam2014 wrote:I mean the models clearly have areas getting to freezing don't they?

Yep, and moreover, if we are at 34/35 with prolonged snow, the column would cool to 32 anyway... can't say I know how strong the illegal substances are with them right now... but if we stayed at 35° the whole time, I fail to see how this is anything but a cold rain with some sleet mixed in

by **Adam2014** 2012-12-24, 3:45 pm

The 2m line clearly surpasses most areas with moisture still in place. This would mean accumulation lol.

by **Adam2014** 2012-12-24, 3:45 pm

Lets see if this thing can keep going east. Trends are going well right now.

by **Toot** 2012-12-24, 4:04 pm

The 18z NAM is a thing of beauty for western TN. HEAVY synoptic snow!
Post Christmas Storm - Page 5 2012122418_SER_NAM_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_039

Post Christmas Storm - Page 5 2012122418_SER_NAM_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_042

by **Adam2014** 2012-12-24, 4:06 pm

Northwest corner especially.

by **John1122** 2012-12-24, 4:55 pm

This one will be odd here in that I'll be looking for winds to switch to the SW for the colder air to arrive. The rain will also switch over from SW to NE.

by **Mrgolf** 2012-12-24, 5:34 pm

Afd out of meg mentioned the ecmwf has the deformation band more southeast than the gfs fwiw. I doubt it but they mentioned it anyways. That may be our only chance to get into the heavier snows for the immediate memphis surrounding areas. Also, could someone post the euro on this storm for this coming wknd off the psu ewall site? Where the slp will be located. Merry christmas to all!

by **Toot** 2012-12-24, 5:40 pm

Mrgolf wrote:Afd out of meg mentioned the ecmwf has the deformation band more southeast than the gfs fwiw. I doubt it but they mentioned it anyways. That may be our only chance to get into the heavier snows for the immediate memphis surrounding areas. Also, could someone post the euro on this storm for this coming wknd off the psu ewall site? Where the slp will be located. Merry christmas to all!

Ive already posted the 12z euro.. try reading back a page or two. The Euro Canadian and the 18z nam all agree on the deform band thumping the Memphis area. Gonna be some heavy snow falling there!

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2012-12-24, 8:32 pm

Man I have studied this until I'm tired. Dyersburg is on the razors edge of a good one. IMO it could be a couple of inches or 10 inches here. It will be the difference in just 20 to 40 miles. To be honest, and I can't believe I'm says this, I hope we end up with a couple inches of rain. I need it bad for the duck hunting situation. This is the first time in my life that I have wished for that so we probably will get the snow. lol!

by **Toot** 2012-12-24, 9:32 pm

0zNAM is very different from the last run. The whole system is further south and east and many areas that would have just seen maybe a dusting now might see a 2-3 inches if its correct. Im just wondering if we are seeing the results of the system already being further south than expected and now models are starting to catch on. Time will tell!

by **keithinala** 2012-12-24, 11:21 pm

Toot wrote:Latest euro supporting my final call with the 2-4 near Memphis and Clarksville with much higher amounts near Dyersburg. Lighter amounts as you go eastward

I'm on AccuPro and don't see those bright snow maps like that. Is that from the Pro site or the Premium or what? Thanks.

by **Toot** 2012-12-24, 11:46 pm

That image is from accupro

Meanwhile...this is a sick looking image that came from the 0z 4km NAM down in dixie. Its none other than many discrete rotating supercells yikes

Post Christmas Storm - Page 5 383642_345684565539302_272737454_n

by **Toot** 2012-12-25, 12:24 am

Ok...Ive been non stop on this thing for about all day and im fixing to turn in! Last thoughts of the night are..Ive got to believe that there will be some thundersnow somewhere in Arkansas or West TN given the dynamics thats being modeled with this system. Also..I hope and pray that people down in LA MS and AL are ready for whats going to hit them tomorrow/wednesday.

Good night

by **Grandpa Nasty** 2012-12-25, 5:34 am

Awesome.You rarely see this in Tennessee:

Blizzard Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
417 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH
FROM LATE TODAY...THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS TEXAS
WILL TRACK INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL SPREAD
OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY
EARLY EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NIGHT WITH THE ADDED POSSIBILITY OF AN INITIAL ICE PELLET MIX. IN
ADDITIONAL TO THE HEAVY SNOW...STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
45 MPH ARE EXPECTED...CAUSING SEVERE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES...ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING CONDITIONS.

ARZ027-028-035-MOZ115-TNZ001-002-019-251800-
/O.UPG.KMEG.WS.A.0002.121225T2100Z-121226T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMEG.BZ.W.0001.121225T2100Z-121226T1500Z/
POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-CROSS-PEMISCOT-LAKE-OBION-DYER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...WYNNE...
CARUTHERSVILLE...UNION CITY...DYERSBURG
417 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT.

* WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO
45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

by **Dyersburg Weather** 2012-12-25, 7:00 am

Grandpa Nasty wrote:Awesome.You rarely see this in Tennessee:

Blizzard Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
417 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH
FROM LATE TODAY...THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS TEXAS
WILL TRACK INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL SPREAD
OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY
EARLY EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NIGHT WITH THE ADDED POSSIBILITY OF AN INITIAL ICE PELLET MIX. IN
ADDITIONAL TO THE HEAVY SNOW...STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
45 MPH ARE EXPECTED...CAUSING SEVERE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES...ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING CONDITIONS.

ARZ027-028-035-MOZ115-TNZ001-002-019-251800-
/O.UPG.KMEG.WS.A.0002.121225T2100Z-121226T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMEG.BZ.W.0001.121225T2100Z-121226T1500Z/
POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-CROSS-PEMISCOT-LAKE-OBION-DYER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...WYNNE...
CARUTHERSVILLE...UNION CITY...DYERSBURG
417 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT.

* WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO
45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

Party at my house. Everyone head this way. rock on

by **Clarksville Snowman** 2012-12-25, 7:34 am

Dyersburg Weather wrote:
Grandpa Nasty wrote:Awesome.You rarely see this in Tennessee:

Blizzard Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
417 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH
FROM LATE TODAY...THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS TEXAS
WILL TRACK INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL SPREAD
OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY
EARLY EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NIGHT WITH THE ADDED POSSIBILITY OF AN INITIAL ICE PELLET MIX. IN
ADDITIONAL TO THE HEAVY SNOW...STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
45 MPH ARE EXPECTED...CAUSING SEVERE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES...ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING CONDITIONS.

ARZ027-028-035-MOZ115-TNZ001-002-019-251800-
/O.UPG.KMEG.WS.A.0002.121225T2100Z-121226T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMEG.BZ.W.0001.121225T2100Z-121226T1500Z/
POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-CROSS-PEMISCOT-LAKE-OBION-DYER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...WYNNE...
CARUTHERSVILLE...UNION CITY...DYERSBURG
417 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT.

* WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO
45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

Party at my house. Everyone head this way.

Looking good Dyersburg! I hope this thing keeps creeping south and east and my neck of the woods can at least get a few inches. If not I shouldn't have to drive to far down 79 to get snow pretty pictures. Man from my location it looks like a so close so far situation right now, but happy for west tenn and southwest ky as they look to at least have a good shot at some big snow. Here's to the snow MOJO surprises Tennessee! Merry Christmas

by **Adam2014** 2012-12-25, 7:38 am

Watch and see if the short term models pick up on anything.... This system could still shift.... I remember Christmas 2010 when areas recieved a suprise snowstorm when models trended last second.

by **snowdog** 2012-12-25, 9:47 am

Grandpa Nasty wrote:Awesome.You rarely see this in Tennessee:

Blizzard Warning
RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
417 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

I'm so freaking jealous. Nashville is ridiculously overdue for a big snow storm.

by **Coach B** 2012-12-25, 10:43 am

snowdog wrote:
I'm so freaking jealous. Nashville is ridiculously overdue for a big snow storm.

Very true. Nashville has been missed both north, west, and south over the last several years.

by **Jed33** 2012-12-25, 11:40 am

Merry Christmas everyone! I'm definitely wishing I was in W TN at this point. I'm down in Birmingham visiting my parents as we speak, however, I've been monitoring everything since we've been here. I just saw this interesting bit from MRX. This obviously won't be as big in E TN as W TN, but worth noting, the WRF spreads snow showers/flurries even down into N AL.

000
FXUS64 KMRX 251522
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1022 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG DISSIPATING...SO HAVE ALLOWED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE.

LATEST NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A GOOD MOUNTAIN WAVE HIGH WIND
EVENT FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNEDAY..SO HAVE UPGRADED WATCH TO A WARNING.

SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS AN OUTBREAK OF STORMS ACORSS
TEXAS THIS MORNING DUE TO STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHORT-WAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TONIGHT. I AM BECOMING MORE CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...WILL LIKELY ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE REST OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EAST TENNESSEE FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

ALSO...THE STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS MOVING FARTHER SOUTH THAN
SHOWN YESTERDAY WHICH GIVES OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND
MOUNTAINS A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW.

HAVE A GREAT CHRISTMAS DAY...

by **VFL** 2012-12-25, 12:09 pm

May not mean a thing but interesting that Jonesboro Ark forecast was for rain/snow mix today with all snow after midnight and as of noon est it's 32' and snowing.

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