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Post Christmas Storm

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Toot on 2012-12-25, 1:45 pm

Merry Christmas everyone and congrats to all the folks out in west TN! Im assuming the west TN downplayers association on another forum have finally stopped downplaying this whole event..lmao
lapat

Meanwhile.. guidance continues to trend a little better for snow in most locations. Im even beginning to think that the Nashvegas area may see between an inch and two inches of snowfall. I would do an updated forecast graphic but my internet connection is really slow up here in the smokies as I am tethered through my cell phone which isnt getting a very good signal mad

For east TN folk in unelevated spots...late Wednesday into early AM Thursday there will be a time period when the low level flow will transfer from the primary surface low centered right over east Tennessee to a secondary surface low centred in central NC. This is the time when deeper moisture and cold air will be available in the area. Low transfers are not handeled very well by guidance models so im still watching the Hi Res models trying to figure this particular aspect out.

My current thinking is that an inch+ of snow will be possible north of I-40 in eastern TN with a heavy dusting possible in the central valley around the Knoxville area. Not really expecting much any further south

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-25, 4:16 pm

Toot wrote:Merry Christmas everyone and congrats to all the folks out in west TN! Im assuming the west TN downplayers association on another forum have finally stopped downplaying this whole event..lmao
lapat

Meanwhile.. guidance continues to trend a little better for snow in most locations. Im even beginning to think that the Nashvegas area may see between an inch and two inches of snowfall. I would do an updated forecast graphic but my internet connection is really slow up here in the smokies as I am tethered through my cell phone which isnt getting a very good signal mad

For east TN folk in unelevated spots...late Wednesday into early AM Thursday there will be a time period when the low level flow will transfer from the primary surface low centered right over east Tennessee to a secondary surface low centred in central NC. This is the time when deeper moisture and cold air will be available in the area. Low transfers are not handeled very well by guidance models so im still watching the Hi Res models trying to figure this particular aspect out.

My current thinking is that an inch+ of snow will be possible north of I-40 in eastern TN with a heavy dusting possible in the central valley around the Knoxville area. Not really expecting much any further south
part of this post, i nominate post of the year.. lmao

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by joereb1 on 2012-12-25, 4:39 pm

Merry Christmas everyone. I really hope we get at least an inch here in South Knoxville!!!

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-12-25, 5:09 pm

Merry Christmas !!!! Rain and sleet mixed in Dyersburg as of 4 pm

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2012-12-25, 5:18 pm

Oh yea, I forgot to add to my post earlier this morning ... MERRY MOTHERFUCKIG XMAS EVERYONE! On a side note for Tooter, we were in Gatlniburg/Forge De Pigeon this weekend but had the grandbaby so that's why I didn't contact you for drinks.

On another side note I am at my very religous mother in laws house@ the moment slamming beers with the guys and having a large time


Last edited by Grandpa Nasty on 2012-12-25, 5:21 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : beer of course)

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by kailynleto on 2012-12-25, 5:26 pm

Still nothing in Paris or McKenzie (at last check). My temperature is 35, and a couple folks nearby are a little colder even. Would not be surprised to see us start out as sleet/rain or if we have any sort of evaporative cooling, freezing rain, for a little while before we get some rain.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Clarksville Snowman on 2012-12-25, 5:43 pm

I'm sitting at 36 degrees just west of clarksville. The Snowman has his MOJO working hard, I hope folks here in west and middle get some decent snow. I'm pulling for 2-3 realizing it could go either way, pulling for everyone. Merry Christmas to all and get your snow dance on. I want snow cream!!! popcorn santa

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Toot on 2012-12-25, 6:01 pm

Jed33 wrote:Merry Christmas everyone! I'm definitely wishing I was in W TN at this point. I'm down in Birmingham visiting my parents as we speak, however, I've been monitoring everything since we've been here. I just saw this interesting bit from MRX. This obviously won't be as big in E TN as W TN, but worth noting, the WRF spreads snow showers/flurries even down into N AL.
Mery Christmas Jed..looks like some rough weather heading ur way..stay safe buddy!


Grandpa Nasty wrote:Oh yea, I forgot to add to my post earlier this morning ... MERRY MOTHERFUCKIG XMAS EVERYONE! On a side note for Tooter, we were in Gatlniburg/Forge De Pigeon this weekend but had the grandbaby so that's why I didn't contact you for drinks.

On another side note I am at my very religous mother in laws house@ the moment slamming beers with the guys and having a large time
rfl
Next time you get up this way give me a holler Nasty and I will slam back a few beers with ya! Meanwhile... slam a few back for me as im still stuck at a non alcoholic establishment at the moment..LOL beer

First drops of rain just started here in Sevier county


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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-12-25, 6:07 pm

Tornado Emergency in Mobile,AL. God help them... [img][/img]

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by windstorm on 2012-12-25, 8:16 pm

Merry Christmas Everyone. Late but not to late. santa
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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by etnwx on 2012-12-25, 8:55 pm

Merry Christmas everyone! I hope to get back to work on my weather station post now that the hectic rush of the holidays will be ending soon.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Toot on 2012-12-25, 10:22 pm

For west TN folk here is a satellite image with your 850mb temp contours overlayed on top. Ive highlighted the 850mb freezing line and as you can see your 850mb temps of freezing or below is located underneath the upper level low or "comma head." As this moves ENE the rain/mix will turn over to all snow because your freezing temps up in the atmosphere is directly related to this comma head/ULL feature.

If you are currently getting some sleet or sleet/rain mix that is because of a cold layer near the surface.. or around the 925mb level. Anyways it wont be long now!

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-12-25, 10:48 pm

Toot We started with a rain sleet mix. Turned to all rain for a couple of hours and ended. We are just starting to see the edge of the back side and currently it is a icy mix with a few big flakes mixed in. It is 35 degrees here with a sustained NE wind of 25.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Toot on 2012-12-25, 11:09 pm

Thanks for the OBS DW..keep us updated Smile

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-12-26, 3:15 am

Well damn. I don't remember any of the models taking this thing straight up the Miss. River. Moderate fine flaked snow here with about a half inch on the ground.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by windstorm on 2012-12-26, 8:28 am

Snow on ground in Memphis looks like 1 inch little more or less. You can see it on the Elvis/Graceland cam.
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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Jed33 on 2012-12-26, 8:45 am

I know this is not TN where I'm staying for Christmas, but here at my parents house in Trussville, AL, about 20 miles NE of Birmingham, it's starting to flurry a little. Pretty good sized flakes here actually. Hope this wrap-around continues and the whole state of TN gets some action!

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2012-12-26, 10:47 am

Man, that little jog it made up the Miss. River screwed us. We ended up with a solid 2 inches but you can add a inch for every 5 miles you go NW.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Toot on 2012-12-26, 10:53 am

Dyersburg Weather wrote:Man, that little jog it made up the Miss. River screwed us. We ended up with a solid 2 inches but you can add a inch for every 5 miles you go NW.

Well... at least you didnt completely get shafted but yeah I would have been disapointed also if I were in your location with all the blizzard warnings around.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Toot on 2012-12-26, 11:07 am

I see where Nashville has been added to the WWA. Radar really isnt all that impressive this morning and the 4km nam runs from the past couple of days looks to have overdone simulated radar. Not sure Knoxville see's much of anything now and even north of I-40 in east TN may struggle to get a dusting. We'll see how radar trends go but due to blocking being in the wrong place for this and the last system its even hard to get a true NW flow for even the mountians to get a decent upslope event.

Flow in wake of this and the last LPS has been mainly out of the west which is not a true upslope flow and therefore totals even in the higher elevations was and will be lower than normal when compared to similar systems.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Toot on 2012-12-26, 3:19 pm

Man..I cant believe nobody is reporting any OBS here!

Well..I will post again since nobody else is posting anything. The primary to secondary low transfer has began and its happening a little earlier than progged. It will be interesting to see if it can enhance the snowfall here in east TN.


I bet it will make a difference in the mountains. If it would have happened a little earlier like last night it could have had significant implications on snowfall. Lets see if it makes any difference

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by John1122 on 2012-12-26, 3:50 pm

Been snowing here for a couple hours, nothng sticking yet though.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Toot on 2012-12-26, 3:55 pm

Fixing to change over here in Sevier county. Got some nice quarter sized flakes mixing in with the rain now..just a few feet up the ridge its all snow

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Vanster67 on 2012-12-26, 4:03 pm

Been snowing since 10 or so this am. cpmputer down at house. usimg wifes phone. below freezing here. bout 1/4 inch on grass amd cars and.rppfs covered. hop all had gppd christmas. will ppst more from work tonig
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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by 1234snow on 2012-12-26, 4:11 pm

So far it has been all rain which I expected. Temp is 40 so Im still waiting on that pesky warm nose to get out of the way and more CAA to work its way in

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

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