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Post Christmas Storm

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Mrgolf on 2012-12-21, 4:15 pm

Hello everyone! The key on how far this storm shifts north or south is the confluence in eastrn canada. The stronger it is, the more it will shift south, and the less it is, the better chance it will shift the storm track north. There really isnt that much cold air to work with like we would want to see. Also, if someone could post henry margusity's snow map he has out, that would be nice.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Reb on 2012-12-21, 4:19 pm

Margusity posted this on twitter...latest EURO run

http://ow.ly/i/1hAk6

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Toot on 2012-12-21, 4:34 pm

snowdog wrote:Toot you better start reeling that big fish in, its swimming away. 12z GFS says....shake the magic 8 ball....WEST.
Lol..I hope we both get crushed. I will make another post later after I look at todays guidance beer

1234snow wrote:Well after much indecision between the models (especially the GFS) it seems like now the most probable solution is for the 500mb low to close off west of the Mississippi River or very close to it and then track through TN and up close to the KY/WV border before the surface low transfers to the coast. That normally doesn't bode well for much of East Tennessee. I believe it will be very hard to get any accumulating snowfall east of Nashville with this scenario. The dryslot and warm air advection will be a huge problem in eastern TN as the low wraps up while the deformation band rages on out to the west.

The trough is simply not digging enough as it was modeled a few days ago. The ridge out in the Rockies is much flatter than progged a few days ago. The closed low/trough off the Pacific coast is crushing that ridge and flattening it out. Our post Christmas trough was progged to dig all the way to the Mexican border and now it seems like it won't dig any further south than Dallas. But the flattening of the ridge and the confluence in Eastern Canada should keep our shortwave moving eastward even as it cuts off. So, I believe the Great Lakes solution is strongly off the table.

Even though this will be a good size storm, it just looks less impressive than it did a few days ago. This includes the rain part of the storm, even now it doesn't look like as much moisture can be dragged up from the Gulf as before, but still alot of moisture.

Sorry my first post was negative. I believe someone will get clocked out in Western Tennessee as the closed low passes to the east as the deform band swings from southwest to northeast. The confluence in the Northeast needs to hang on for dear life and hopefully it can stay put in place. The lead shortwave/clipper that rolls through Christmas Eve should play a big role in that. If that happens then there is a better chance that our trough can head further east. Where the low closes off will also play a big role as well.

Even if this storm doesn't work out for most or all of us, it definately has a shot at helping us with any energy that may come through around New Years. With most pattern changes it can be a step down process.
Nice post Jimmy..I agree with most of what you say here. But I think there is still a pretty large cone of uncertainty where this one could possibly track. I believe the lead shortwave that will be responsible for the digging front/trough will be off the California coast Saturday where it then will be sampled by our balloon network. We will probably have a much better idea of where this one may end up tracking when that happens. Glad you have joined here..your knowledge will be greatly appreciated!



Snowflake wrote:Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2012

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.


Lol..this is not like them at all but I have noticed they are not as conservative as they used to be in their AFD's this winter. They must have a new guy writing forecast discussions
pals


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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Reb on 2012-12-21, 4:36 pm

seems as though they have folded this year, toot! haha. maybe they brought someone over from OHX during the winter offseason lol. maybe this will mean MAPS!!! wash

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Clarksville Snowman on 2012-12-21, 5:10 pm

I'll take the euro for 500 Alex!! Boy would that be SWEET! popcorn rock on

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Toot on 2012-12-21, 5:22 pm

After taking a quick look at todays guidance here is the operational models positions wed into thursday. As you can see the CMC continues to be well east of the GFS and Euro. Its probably too far east but I think the euro and gfs are also too far west..but the euro is probably the closest to the actual track IMO

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Toot on 2012-12-21, 5:29 pm

And just as I post that graphic the 18z GFS comes much further east..just to the right of the 12z euro and east of the Apps.

I think this is close to the eventual track of this storm system


But we wont have better data to work with until the SW in question gets sampled saturday

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by 1234snow on 2012-12-21, 5:33 pm

Reb wrote:wow MRX biting big time

That is very unusual coming from them! Are you sure they wrote that? Laughing

Like yesterday's 18z GFS, today's run keeps the wave open and the surface low scoots off to the northeast on the eastern side of the mountains. Looks like middle TN is the best spot on this run, even with the low off to the east there is still a pesky warm noise across East TN, but it looks like even we can turn to snow at the end. There is alot less QPF on this run aswell. So the 18z GFS is with the CMC camp.

It seems like the 6z and 18z runs of the GFS like to keep the wave open longer while the 0z and 12z runs are more amplified. With that in mind I expect the 0z GFS to have at least a slightly more amplified solution.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by andyhb on 2012-12-21, 7:33 pm

Toot wrote:And just as I post that graphic the 18z GFS comes much further east..just to the right of the 12z euro and east of the Apps.

I think hope this is close to the eventual track of this storm system

But we wont have better data to work with until the SW in question gets sampled saturday
FYP tongue

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Toot on 2012-12-21, 7:54 pm

andyhb wrote:
FYP tongue

LOL..why would I try to "hope" that track into existence? That's not even scientifically possible! cheers

Not to mention its not an ideal track for snow in east TN.. even though it would eventually change to snow but then again so would the 12z euro beer

For a whopper here in east TN I need the surface low to track closer to the CMC.. just a hundred miles inland. The track I have in mind is just a hundred miles or so east across the Appalachians from the 12z Euro..so its not that much different in outcome here. Ive watched many gulf lows during winter in the past decade and I have only seen a few that cut west of the Apps. Gulf cyclogenesis = east of the Apps stormtrack most of the time during winter..its a physics thing but there are exceptions..dont get me wrong.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-21, 10:42 pm

hearing that TWC will be naming this storm possible... what crazy names they r using...

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Reb on 2012-12-21, 10:52 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:hearing that TWC will be naming this storm possible... what crazy names they r using...
possible as a name? did i read this post correctly? wtf facepalm

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-21, 10:54 pm

Reb wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:hearing that TWC will be naming this storm possible... what crazy names they r using...
possible as a name? did i read this post correctly? wtf facepalm
yeah reb, what to say the name will be euclid, something like that. lol

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Reb on 2012-12-21, 11:11 pm

GFS hits W TN, low goes up middle/east TN...lame lol

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by skillsweather on 2012-12-21, 11:24 pm

East Tennessee probably misses out on the snow part of this. Heck even most of Middle Tennessee does on this run. Hope it is a fluke.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Toot on 2012-12-22, 12:11 am

skillsweather wrote:East Tennessee probably misses out on the snow part of this. Heck even most of Middle Tennessee does on this run. Hope it is a fluke.

I wouldnt be calling this anyone's storm yet. We're still around a hundred hrs out and havent even got into the NAM's range yet. A couple of hundred miles shift west or east will make a big difference in who sees what. It could easily shift to a completely coastal system that leaves the whole state high and dry! Given the guidance data the past few days I think middle TN will be the big winners on this but that's just my opinion until we get some sampled data.


0z Canadian holds firm with the more east track


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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2012-12-22, 12:15 am

thisshouldbe in the winter thread.. but wow. the long range gfs just brought down the whole damn freezer folks... thos temps look deadly... seriously... whole damn state goes below zero wm temps in the long range on this run... a true positive pna builds also. yess

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by snowdog on 2012-12-22, 12:38 am

I think the UKMET looks similar to the Canadian. Hard to tell with it being in 24 hour increments.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Reb on 2012-12-22, 1:18 am

UK and Canadian are huge hits for ETN. lets see what the euro does here shortly

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by snowdog on 2012-12-22, 10:24 am

All ensemble runs are farther east than their OP run. I think Toot's idea of an east shift is a good one. How far east is the question. Big lows rarely track over Knoxville and more times than not go east of the Apps. I think a track just east of the apps is probably a good call right now.

I dont know how that track will work out for Nashville. I think a few days ago the models were overestimating the amount of cold air being brought down. It seems model runs the last couple of days haven't been as cold.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-12-22, 10:54 am

This will bring cooler weather with it, and on Christmas Day it looks like a cold rain with highs in the mid 40s. Now we get to the part where I will post frequently over the next few days.Smile A low pressure system will develop somewhere over the midsouth during Christmas day. This low pressure has a lot to do on whether we will see snow Christmas Night into Boxing Day on the 26th. For Lawrenceburg to see substantial snow we need this low pressure system to develop East of our area like some of the models like the GFS and the Canadian have it doing. Other models like the more trusted Euro have the storm developing to the West of Lawrenceburg and not giving us much snow... Some thoughts from my weather page concering the Lawrenceburg area.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-12-22, 10:55 am

The good thing about this is right now both models do paint snowfall for our area. The Euro paints about an inch while the GFS gives our area 2-3 inches. The key will be getting the low pressure system to move closer to the East. I like where we sit with this storm system right now, because it is never good to be in the jackpot zone being 3-4 days out because the solution will change. My thoughts on the system..... I think the solution will not change much, but the fact is if it moves farther West then we will not have as much snow, and if it moves farther East we will see more snow. If we do indeed recieve snow it will be heavy wet snow, great snowball making kind of snow. I will post a couple maps of how the models are depicting this storm system.

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Adam2014 on 2012-12-22, 10:55 am


This is the 2nd run of the GFS today. This is the American model..... The blue line is the rain and snow line. The Darker shade of green you have is the heaiver moisture. The Big L is the low pressure system. This is still a little far West and the low tracks just West of Lawrenceburg. The area recieves snow though, and around 2-3 inches of snow. People around this area would be happy with this solution. It could be better, because areas to the Northwest of here could see 6-8 inches. Beggers cannot be choosers though!


[img][/img]

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Clarksville Snowman on 2012-12-22, 11:13 am

Holy Moly!! That's a sight of beauty, one can only hope we are this lucky. I'm pulling for a area wide snow, that would be pretty epic if that was all snow in my neck of the woods! popcorn rock on

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Re: Post Christmas Storm

Post by Toot on 2012-12-22, 12:12 pm

Ok..im going all in uh oh

I might recieve some flack for this because it goes against what trusted guidance says but I Just dont buy the crazy things the operational Euro/GFS are doing. I beleive a major nor'easter will affect most of the eastern US but im not buying the low riding up the TN valley and then magically transferring to the east coast..lol that is preposterous and very unlikely IMO!!

I do believe when the energy for this system gets sampled off the west coast by the balloon network that you will see the secondary low completely disappear as a more gradual phase takes place! I see no scientific reason that this wont be a classic Nor'easter via Miller A cyclogenesis. Could I be wrong? Totally could be.. but sensible synoptics and climatology will argue for the track I have below. Even if my forecast dont verify its still going to be a major storm system for some portion of TN.



It should be noted that this will begin as rain in the white area south of the blue area

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