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January Severe

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Re: January Severe

Post by Toot on 2013-01-28, 6:23 pm


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Re: January Severe

Post by Toot on 2013-01-28, 6:53 pm



I also posted some impressive hi res graphics in the members section for this system

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Re: January Severe

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-01-28, 7:39 pm

Toot wrote:

I also posted some impressive hi res graphics in the members section for this system
you guy's are crazy! I did check out the graphics it does'nt look good with the super cells out ahead of the main line! Thanks
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split

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-01-28, 9:58 pm

0z nam continues to increase the instability ever so more... id develops a nearly double stack lo look over missouri

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Re: January Severe

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-01-28, 11:15 pm

It is 60 degrees and clear. I don't know when the cloud deck moves in but if we get any sun in the morning for a short period. We should be upgraded to the mod risk here in middle tn! wow

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Re: January Severe

Post by skillsweather on 2013-01-28, 11:46 pm

Sun wont really help us get severe weather tomorrow. It will help make the storms to the west build up better and be able to give us a strong punch as they will have more steam to lose though. And no we wont get mod risk lol.

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Re: January Severe

Post by Toot on 2013-01-29, 8:12 am



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Re: January Severe

Post by MSR_93 on 2013-01-29, 11:37 am

Wow. Expanded mod risk to include much more of tn. Looks to go along the Tennessee river. This could get intresting

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Re: January Severe

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-01-29, 12:18 pm

Man this place is quiet with a threat rolling in. I am beginning to wonder if things can get juiced up enough here in Dyersburg. DP at 57 as of 11 am. I expected to be in low 60s by now.

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Re: January Severe

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-01-29, 12:31 pm

Torcon a 6 for West Tn.

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Re: January Severe

Post by MSR_93 on 2013-01-29, 1:34 pm

In Pulaski at school, Havent seen the sun all day..temp is 67 with the DP at 60.

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Re: January Severe

Post by etnwx on 2013-01-29, 3:53 pm

Well 64.8 °F here with a 56 °F dew point. Overcast sky.

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Re: January Severe

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-01-29, 4:36 pm

74 degrees and DP went down to 55. Sun is out here.

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Re: January Severe

Post by Toot on 2013-01-29, 6:05 pm

Heads up West TN folk..a sizeable TOR threat has definately developed out yalls way!


Code:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0437 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MS VALLEY
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
 
  VALID 292237Z - 300100Z
 
  PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
 
  SUMMARY...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ALONG THE SABINE RIVER TO CNTRL LA
  SHOULD EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE
  LOWER MS VALLEY. TORNADOES /POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT/ AND DAMAGING WINDS
  WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
 
  DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF WARM SECTOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
  TSTMS ALONG THE SABINE RIVER INTO CNTRL LA SHOULD GRADUALLY DEEPEN
  THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FED BY UPSTREAM PW VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES.
  AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND LOW TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALL FAVORABLY
  INCREASE...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP. SOME
  CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
  OCCURRING...ALTHOUGH APPEARING LIKELY TOO SLOW /BETWEEN 03-06Z/. IT
  APPEARS MORE PROBABLE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THAT SUPERCELLS WILL
  OCCUR BY THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING
  TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/ AND DAMAGING WINDS.
 
  ..GRAMS/HART.. 01/29/2013
 
 
  ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

Hi res graphics posted in the members section!

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Re: January Severe

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-01-29, 6:27 pm

It looks like the main threat is west of me at this time and is going to slide south of here. Still going to be an exciting night but we are not seeing the DPs up this way that models were showing. 70 degrees and DP of 56 as of 530.

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Re: January Severe

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-01-29, 7:15 pm

quick update fro me and the boys head out towards the sw of here. cells backin sw arkie are showing a discrete look and starting to show some rootattion slowly. the stuf in northe rn louisiana has to be watched very closeley. dont let your guard down dyer, your dew should start risiing shortly

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Re: January Severe

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-01-29, 7:16 pm

sorry for the mis spell folks, i am on rebull and alot adreleine. long night for me, peace out. hope to check in later with stuff to share

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Re: January Severe

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-01-29, 7:35 pm

Warning on cell approaching Greeneville Ms. Nasty looking discrete cell.

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Re: January Severe

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-01-29, 8:32 pm

skillsweather wrote:Sun wont really help us get severe weather tomorrow. It will help make the storms to the west build up better and be able to give us a strong punch as they will have more steam to lose though. And no we wont get mod risk lol.
LoL skills! Just in from work. We did get a little peek of sun today. Also I see that part of middle tn is under mod risk. Just as I thought. Watch around 9pm-11Pm for some supercells to develop to our west. It may be a long night! Thanks for your input. uh oh
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Re: January Severe

Post by AndyP on 2013-01-29, 8:39 pm

Take it for what its worth, but TWC just showed East TN at TOR CON 5/10 for tomorrow. It will be interesting to see if this line holds together overnight or rebuilds through the day tomorrow.
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Re: January Severe

Post by Toot on 2013-01-29, 8:40 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:
skillsweather wrote:And no we wont get mod risk lol.
I see that part of middle tn is under mod risk. Just as I thought. Thanks for your input. uh oh
Zing!!

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Re: January Severe

Post by Toot on 2013-01-29, 8:43 pm


Code:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0080
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0731 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NRN/CNTRL MS...WRN TN
 
  CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10...
 
  VALID 300131Z - 300330Z
 
  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 10 CONTINUES.
 
  SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREATS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
  IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEMI-DISCRETE TSTM BANDS. COORDINATION WITH WFO
  MEM/JAN WILL OCCUR SHORTLY OVER ADDITIONAL AREAL EXTENSION OF WW 10
  OR NEW DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE.
 
  DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH A BAND OF
  SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS NOW JUST E OF THE MS RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
  PERSISTED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MORE ROBUST BUOYANCY AS SAMPLED
  BY 00Z LZK/SHV/LCH RAOBS. DOWNSTREAM 00Z JAN AND A SPECIAL MS STATE
  SOUNDING FROM CLARKSDALE MS SAMPLED MORE MEAGER BUOYANCY WITH A
  DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. ALTHOUGH
  THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMPLITUDE AND ERN EXTENT OF THE THREAT IN THE
  NEAR-TERM...RISING SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE PAST
  HOUR AT KTVR/KHEZ ALONG THE MS/LA BORDER. GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE
  HODOGRAPHS FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE
  ASCENT...A E/NEWD EXPANSION OF DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL IN
  CONCERT WITH INCREASING DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE.
 
  ..GRAMS/HART.. 01/30/2013
 
 
  ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

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Re: January Severe

Post by skillsweather on 2013-01-29, 9:13 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:
skillsweather wrote:Sun wont really help us get severe weather tomorrow. It will help make the storms to the west build up better and be able to give us a strong punch as they will have more steam to lose though. And no we wont get mod risk lol.
LoL skills! Just in from work. We did get a little peek of sun today. Also I see that part of middle tn is under mod risk. Just as I thought. Watch around 9pm-11Pm for some supercells to develop to our west. It may be a long night! Thanks for your input. uh oh


Yea but like I said sun wont really help us since this will be coming in into the morning hours 10+hours after the suns set. And ye surprised mid Tennessee got mod risk out of this but it is what it is.

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Re: January Severe

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-01-29, 9:37 pm

Yeah! Your right. The sun does help destablize! Also you really don't need sun in a system as dynamic as this one to cause mod to high risk zones. So really does'nt matter day or night. I remember in jan Clarksville,tn got hit with a tornado around 3-4 in the morning and destroyed downtown! STAY ALERT! sneaky

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Re: January Severe

Post by VFL on 2013-01-29, 9:47 pm

TorCon is a 5 for E.Tenn and KY tomorrow, surprised?
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Re: January Severe

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