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**Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-13, 1:39 am

Guidance continues to trend colder at 850 and stronger at the surface

0z Canadian looks like a snow storm to me

850temps


Surface




Precip
[img][/img]

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-13, 8:36 am

Even though the operational euro and gfs may look like they lost the storm their ensembles are still suggesting a winter storm threat. Hopefully when the northern stream energy gets sampled better you will see the ops come back on board

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-13, 8:53 am

Looks like most of the Ops models are doing exactly what models do on almost every possible snow threat down here. Losing the storm about 4-5 days out. Are the models right? No idea, but I'd look to see if this becomes a trend. More times than not, a possible snow threat always gets squashed (that is, it fizzles out at the very least partially or even completely) at this timeframe, never to be found again. So just keep an eye on it. I said Thursday that if the models kept the storm through Monday afternoon, then it was time to get excited, but not until then.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-13, 11:39 am

If you are wanting a nice snow here in TN you have to love the 12z GFS! It is exactly where you want it to be at this timeframe. Its not a question of will it come northwestward...its a question of when and how far northwest will it come! It cant come too far north because of the PV over the lakes. This setup is as close to a lock for a snow storm here in TN as you will get.

Im honking the horn on this one and I give this one a VERY high probability of laying widespread snow across most of the state

If it were showing precip further north at this point I would be worried about it being too warm..but the look below is extremely sexy and I know what it means


The polar vortex is acting as our blocking while at the same time its supplying the cold air to the system. With the vortex over the lakes region this one will be a southern slider and slide out to sea and will not turn into a nor'easter. The precip shield will be much further north than whats modeled as it always is with gulf lows! We will have to deal with dry air at the onset but that will be overcome starting in the southern sections of the state working its way north.

Places like L-burg and Chattanooga will likely be the big winnners with this one. The snow totals will likely be pretty decent in the southern half of the state and start dropping off the more northward you go.

I havent been over there today but im sure the weenies over at American wx are going nuts over this run as it dumps on GA/NC but this one will come a hair further north and may be too warm for GA!


Ive been doing this long enough and seen enough model runs to know when there is a really high legit snow threat!

Im officially sounding the horn on this one!



Last edited by Toot on 2013-01-13, 12:02 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by MSR_93 on 2013-01-13, 11:56 am

Man toot, I hope your right. It'd be nice to get a decent snow!

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-13, 1:08 pm

Toot, how do you like a comparison between this system and the system that took place in early Jan 2011?? The one that hit S tn but hardly grazed the N parts??

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by joereb1 on 2013-01-13, 1:37 pm

Toot, do you think I'll finally get my prayers answered here in Knoxville and not get grazed again?

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-13, 1:48 pm

joereb1 wrote:Toot, do you think I'll finally get my prayers answered here in Knoxville and not get grazed again?

Well I'm not Toot, but I can help out a bit. Joereb, it is too early to start talking about what locations will receive more than a grazing. Yes, right now, S TN looks like the main spot for the action, but the NW trend has not started on the models yet, so we don't have a clue of how far north the bulk of the precip shield will reach. That depends on several factors, all of which are touchy/variable and could change at any time. How far north the precip shield reaches will ultimately determine a mere dusting of snow all the way to a possible snowstorm.

With all that said, here's to hoping for an all out snowstorm for the whole state (though it is unlikely to be honest, based on the sheer fact that it is so rare in the era we are in for the entire state to get a snowstorm)

We will all do our best on getting the info from the models out there to our members, and we will come through on our commitment on keeping people updated on what to expect as more info comes along.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-13, 1:52 pm

Per Raleigh Wx Euro shows 4-8 WNC, 2-4 for most of central/eastern TN. 1-2 in N MS and AL

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-13, 2:22 pm

I don't doubt Raleigh, but the Euro sure doesn't look that good on psu ewall. At hour 96 it looks pretty dry at 700 and 850mb.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-13, 2:26 pm

Yeah me too snowdog. I hadn't seen it on PSU, was just going off what he said on amwx. Still, nice to see this heading in a favorable direction!

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-13, 2:36 pm

I will post my snowfall predictions on Tuesday AM. Until then, I will digest any and all information that I can find, in addition to of course reviewing the models too. Of course, this all hinges on if this system is still looking to affect us with snow by that time.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-13, 2:42 pm

MSR_93 wrote:Man toot, I hope your right. It'd be nice to get a decent snow!
Welcome to the forum...I have a higher than normal confidence with this one

tom23 wrote:Toot, how do you like a comparison between this system and the system that took place in early Jan 2011?? The one that hit S tn but hardly grazed the N parts??
This one should be colder that that particular storm...shouldnt be any warm noses

joereb1 wrote:Toot, do you think I'll finally get my prayers answered here in Knoxville and not get grazed again?
Well...I would have to know what your prayers are to give you my opinion on whether or not they will be answered or not.
lol!

snowdog wrote:I don't doubt Raleigh, but the Euro sure doesn't look that good on psu ewall. At hour 96 it looks pretty dry at 700 and 850mb.
Jed33 wrote:Yeah me too snowdog. I hadn't seen it on PSU, was just going off what he said on amwx. Still, nice to see this heading in a favorable direction!
The euro looks pretty good for most of southern TN with decent amounts in all of east TN..of course everything drops off the more west you are with this one because that is just the nature of this particular stormtrack.

When they finish updating I will post the high res euro graphics in the members only section.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Reb on 2013-01-13, 3:46 pm

wonder if ill cash in and leave i40 north in the dust potstir

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Post by jmundie on 2013-01-13, 4:32 pm

Toot - I doubt the precip shield goes much further north, unless the low comes further north. The jet is roaring and will sheer out any precip that tries to move into Tennessee.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-13, 6:07 pm

18zGFS

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-13, 6:35 pm

Jmundie actually has an excellent point... the euro could very well end up being correct... the jet stream may keep the northern push of the precip shield from entering far into tn. That could leave many of us high and dry if it has its way

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-13, 6:59 pm

Now, thats what ya call Miller-Time right there! Looks great!

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-13, 7:03 pm

Jed33 wrote:Now, thats what ya call Miller-Time right there! Looks great!

That is the 18z run of the gfs... don't get too excited... I'm thinking the jet stream will squash the precip southward, and evidently I'm not alone in that school of thought

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-13, 7:11 pm

Yeah, it's a possibility, but systems usually trend NW, and this 1 may too. We'll see.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-13, 7:17 pm

Jed33 wrote:Yeah, it's a possibility, but systems usually trend NW, and this 1 may too. We'll see.

True and I of course hope it does... but the Nw trends aren't just a given... they arent just magic... the Nw trend usually only happens if there is a piece causing it to come more north than projected originally .... however the only piece I see is a roaring jet stream that would cause me to believe the euros solution over other solutions... this is just another thing to watch for, good thing is its still days away so anything is possible

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-13, 7:19 pm

Regardless of how far N or S the low goes, it's still a gulf low, so it is still a miller-A in that sense. So, it will be Miller-Time most likely for someone.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-13, 7:21 pm

Jed33 wrote:Regardless of how far N or S the low goes, it's still a gulf low, so it is still a miller-A in that sense. So, it will be Miller-Time most likely for someone.

Agreed lol... I'm just saying proceed with cautious optimism to other members who may get prematurely pumped up... but heck Jed, in some houses, its always Miller time.... haha

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-13, 8:28 pm

tom23 wrote:
but the Nw trends aren't just a given... they arent just magic... the Nw trend usually only happens if there is a piece causing it to come more north than projected originally .... however the only piece I see is a roaring jet stream that would cause me to believe the euros solution over other solutions... this is just another thing to watch for, good thing is its still days away so anything is possible
The reason for NW trends are many guidance models (Not just the GFS) overamplify the northern stream. When the northern stream is overamplified..southern stream systems become suppressed to the south and east. When models correct their errors of overamplifying the northern stream the system comes NW due to the actual northern stream being weaker than previously modeled. This has been clearly happening in many past runs of different guidance models..you are now seeing the NW trend due to models correcting their errors of overamplifying the northern stream.

The euro and gfs and their ensemble members have all basically came NW today.

The "Roaring Jet" is pretty well north of the area...for example there are 7 members showing a organized system and 4 showing a sheared system




That said..if you must have something to worry about.. worry about the dry air that this system will have to fight off before snow reaches the ground

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by windstorm on 2013-01-13, 8:33 pm

Anyone that drinks may be crying in there beer over this one.
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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

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