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**Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-13, 8:37 pm

windstorm wrote:Anyone that drinks may be crying in there beer over this one.

LoL in my case I may be crying in my root beer.... sauce

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-13, 8:59 pm

windstorm wrote:Anyone that drinks may be crying in there beer over this one.
Lol...I just wanted to make it snow!


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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-13, 10:32 pm

The nam looks like its fixing to cut this baby east of the Apps facepalm


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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-13, 10:37 pm

How's the avatar, folks???

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by etnwx on 2013-01-13, 10:55 pm

tom23 wrote:How's the avatar, folks???

Gnarly!

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-13, 10:56 pm

etnwx wrote:
tom23 wrote:How's the avatar, folks???

Gnarly!

Thank ye, thank ye! Its actually my brother... he was dressed up for church that day! I'll be sure to tell him that you complimented it. He'll be terrifyingly ecstatic about it!

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-13, 11:14 pm

0z GFS is much stronger and a huge hit for east TN. Graphics coming as they update rock on

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by SEMonroeWx on 2013-01-13, 11:15 pm

Looking at 00z GFS shows a couple inches here, haven't seen the soundings tho. Mountains look to get hammered tho.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by SEMonroeWx on 2013-01-13, 11:18 pm

Toot wrote:0z GFS is much stronger and a huge hit for east TN. Graphics coming as they update rock on

Do you think the rates would overcome any surface issues?

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-13, 11:24 pm

SEMonroeWx wrote:
Do you think the rates would overcome any surface issues?

I dont really see much of a surface temp issue? If the 0z GFS verifies its gonna be a winter wonderland from the Plateau eastward..even in Knoxville. The accumulation graphics do not do that particular run any justice.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by SEMonroeWx on 2013-01-13, 11:30 pm

Toot wrote:
SEMonroeWx wrote:
Do you think the rates would overcome any surface issues?

I dont really see much of a surface temp issue? If the 0z GFS verifies its gonna be a winter wonderland from the Plateau eastward..even in Knoxville. The accumulation graphics do not do that particular run any justice.

Thanks, trying to learn all that I can.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-13, 11:33 pm

Huffmans accum map looks pretty close to my eye..probably more in the mountains tho

Click directly on image to enlarge


Ive been analyzing data all day...so I wont make it that long to stay up for the euro tonight. That means there will be no euro graphics posted by me tonight. I will probably stay up for the Canadian and then im off to bed.

Sleep

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Reb on 2013-01-13, 11:45 pm

canadian graphics tonight or i will go on strike

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-13, 11:57 pm

Reb wrote:canadian graphics tonight or i will go on strike






0z Canadian is suppressed

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-14, 12:10 am


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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-14, 12:14 am


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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by joereb1 on 2013-01-14, 1:13 am

Toot wrote:
SEMonroeWx wrote:
Do you think the rates would overcome any surface issues?

I dont really see much of a surface temp issue? If the 0z GFS verifies its gonna be a winter wonderland from the Plateau eastward..even in Knoxville. The accumulation graphics do not do that particular run any justice.

Toot, now that's what I'm praying about, Let the Snow Flow in Knoxville!!!

Yea, Baby,Yea. cold rock on rock on

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by VFL on 2013-01-14, 8:34 am

Amazing that none of the media outlets in East Tennessee are saying anything about this including NWS morristown. They have temps in the mid to upper 40's and some light rain the 17-20. You would think with the mods showing snow they would at least be saying something about it.
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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by dahrkdaiz on 2013-01-14, 9:02 am

VFL wrote:Amazing that none of the media outlets in East Tennessee are saying anything about this including NWS morristown. They have temps in the mid to upper 40's and some light rain the 17-20. You would think with the mods showing snow they would at least be saying something about it.

I've had similar concerns that they've made no mention of any possibilities. I can see why they wouldn't, many people get irritated with mentions of snow with nothing coming of it. However, I do recall several snows in the past that caught us "off guard" as the local media made either no mention of it or down played the significance. I was almost starting to wonder about it myself due to no mention of it until I started to surf other forums and noticed they had pretty much the same discussions as the ones here.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by snowman72 on 2013-01-14, 9:08 am

VFL wrote:Amazing that none of the media outlets in East Tennessee are saying anything about this including NWS morristown. They have temps in the mid to upper 40's and some light rain the 17-20. You would think with the mods showing snow they would at least be saying something about it.
VFL you have a very good point don't get me wrong I hope to see some snow but I mean no one have even mentioned snow. Pls help us out here Toot.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by VFL on 2013-01-14, 9:19 am

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying one is better or more informed than the other but the difference between us and the local media is a complete 180. I get more info here than anywhere else but I don't get how locals are not saying anything about this when the grafs are showing snow.
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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-14, 9:23 am

dahrkdaiz wrote:
VFL wrote:Amazing that none of the media outlets in East Tennessee are saying anything about this including NWS morristown. They have temps in the mid to upper 40's and some light rain the 17-20. You would think with the mods showing snow they would at least be saying something about it.

I've had similar concerns that they've made no mention of any possibilities. I can see why they wouldn't, many people get irritated with mentions of snow with nothing coming of it. However, I do recall several snows in the past that caught us "off guard" as the local media made either no mention of it or down played the significance. I was almost starting to wonder about it myself due to no mention of it until I started to surf other forums and noticed they had pretty much the same discussions as the ones here.

First off, welcome to the forum! Glad to have you here, and we hope to see you around much more often. We welcome, and even encourage, any and all questions/discussion, because we all had to have our starts somewhere.

Now on the subject at hand... we haven't been impacted by snow in so long that the weather forecast offices (or WFO's for short) have forgotten where the snow graphics are located, so they are hoping that its just a cold rain so they don't have to dig the snow buttons out... haha

Nah, seriously, they like to take a wait n' see approach, unless a system is clearly defined in an already cold pattern. While this system is as clearly defined regarding snow that there has been in a while, its not in an already cold pattern, so they aren't budging just yet as they are taking the cautious approach to it. A lot of the general public uses the info they get from WFO's and run with it as the gospel, so that forces them by default to be much more careful than we here at a weather forum would have to be.

I used to ask the same exact things as you all have asked this morning until this was explained to me, so good points by everyone! Keep up to date with us and follow the models, and you will be ok.

Cheers!

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-14, 9:27 am

One other thing... 15% of the time it is true that the local stations see something that one or two people may miss, which leads to disagreement between that person and the local station. However, 85% of the time it is because of the cautious factor in play by the stations. Chances are, if more than person, or more than one weather forum, is talking about snow, then its a good chance that models are also indicating snow as well. I cannot stress enough the importance of being able to read a model, at least for the precip types, in order to get an indicator of what may happen for yourself.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Neals on 2013-01-14, 9:33 am

I am really confused because of the disagreement. Do you guys that have experience really believe a snow is coming this weekend. I know none of the media is letting the info out. So it's seems like this site's word against the media's word. Who is right?I would like to see Cocke County get about 7 inches. Toot has mentioned the possability and shown graphics show this but I have'nt seen them anywhere else. Plus we have a bday planned for my daughter this Saturday. So I would really like to know. Thanks, Nealy

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-14, 9:42 am

Neals wrote:I am really confused because of the disagreement. Do you guys that have experience really believe a snow is coming this weekend. I know none of the media is letting the info out. So it's seems like this site's word against the media's word. Who is right?I would like to see Cocke County get about 7 inches. Toot has mentioned the possability and shown graphics show this but I have'nt seen them anywhere else. Plus we have a bday planned for my daughter this Saturday. So I would really like to know. Thanks, Nealy

Nealy, I am with you on this. I'd love to see upwards of 6 inches of snow for East Tn lol. I'm a snow lover by heart, so I see where you're coming from.

To answer your question/concern, yes, we do believe snow is on the way. Almost all models have shown that the precip will in fact be snow. A few models have shown a huge hit for E Tn, while one has shown that the moisture will be too far South for us to get any precip at all. I have yet to see any problems with rain, if the moisture does reach up into our area, as currently progged. Unless the local mets have direct sources to God, then they are looking at the same exact solutions that we are looking at. And its not just our site saying it. There are other forums talking snow as well.

My advice is to stay tuned to us, browse other forums for more sources, and also to take time and learn the basics of the weather models so you can go by what you see, instead of taking our words as the only jurisdiction. Again, we encourage all discussions and any questions on here, but we are busy individuals who cannot be accessed 24-7, every single second, so that is why we encourage members to learn as much as possible, so that they are not left hanging when they do have questions.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

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