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**Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-14, 9:44 am

Neals wrote:I am really confused because of the disagreement. Do you guys that have experience really believe a snow is coming this weekend. I know none of the media is letting the info out. So it's seems like this site's word against the media's word. Who is right?I would like to see Cocke County get about 7 inches. Toot has mentioned the possability and shown graphics show this but I have'nt seen them anywhere else. Plus we have a bday planned for my daughter this Saturday. So I would really like to know. Thanks, Nealy

In all honesty, there is no way to know right now. Just know that the possibility exists and as we get closer the solution should become more clear. Keep checking in over the next couple of days, things will continue to be updated as more data comes in.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Neals on 2013-01-14, 9:47 am

Ok, sounds good. I like to learn new things. I happened to find this sight because of the Halloblizzard thread and enjoy reading here. I was not aware that other sites have also picked up on this because I've not looked at any. Thanks, Tom and snowdog. popcorn

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-14, 9:52 am

Neals wrote:Ok, sounds good. I like to learn new things. I happened to find this sight because of the Halloblizzard thread and enjoy reading here. I was not aware that other sites have also picked up on this because I've not looked at any. Thanks, Tom and snowdog. popcorn

Anytime! Glad to be of service!

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by VFL on 2013-01-14, 10:05 am

I'd say if the afternoon runs are still on to this we'll likely start to see the locals jump on board a little at a time. JMO
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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-14, 12:12 pm

Gfs continues to be a little (which is a good thing IMO) the nam is further north than all guidance. Waiting on the euro/cmc to run. Wont b able to post graphics..at work

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2013-01-14, 3:03 pm

Nam looks like all rain. GFS looks like low falls apart and we stay dry except for maybe a couple of rain showers.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-14, 3:05 pm

If tonights runs hold, I'd say go ahead and put a fork in it

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Neals on 2013-01-14, 3:12 pm

well crap

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by secleveland on 2013-01-14, 3:16 pm

Wow Sad

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-14, 3:25 pm

I havent seen the euro but the gfs and its ensembles look great. You have to understand the bias of the gfs package to supptess precip too far south.If the gfs package is correct its on. The emsembles look great at hr 90 for east tn...especially Chattanooga. There is no need to stick a fork in anything

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-14, 3:29 pm

Toot wrote:I havent seen the euro but the gfs and its ensembles look great. You have to understand the bias of the gfs package to supptess precip too far south.If the gfs package is correct its on. The emsembles look great at hr 90 for east tn...especially Chattanooga. There is no need to stick a fork in anything

The nam is terrible for us though. And the GFS op shows the system again being sheared apart. Idk, call me skeptical, but I don't see it happening.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-14, 3:44 pm

The nam is terrible past 48hrs..the gfs is not sheared its suppressed. Tom you have been around long enough to know that is exactly where you want the gfs. I would post the ensembles at hr 90 which clearly shows a snow storm threat but im at work.I will dive into guidance when i get home

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-14, 4:54 pm

I'm not ready to stick a fork in it quite yet. Give it a couple more days.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2013-01-14, 5:24 pm

Well Tooter,
Local news have all been saying pretty much dry and 50 Thursday and Fri. Now ABC did mention a possible mix Thursday night, which is a baby step. NBC say highs low 50's Thurs and Friday with showers south into Ga. Maybe ABC is looking harder and seeing something that might possibly develop.

Edit to add MRX is mentioning the "S" word Wednesday night. beer


Last edited by Grandpa Nasty on 2013-01-14, 5:34 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : .the"S" word....Snow, not shit...)

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2013-01-14, 5:27 pm

On a side note, lots of freezing precip coming down just 40 miles to our SW and NW. Temps at 40 here though and not expected to drop overnight. Currently heavy downpour and 40.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Neals on 2013-01-14, 5:38 pm

Glad to log back on and see some positive talk on the thread. I'll keep hoping for that 7 inches until we know for sure.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2013-01-14, 5:58 pm

Not trying to get off subject of late week possibilities but currently 31 with heavy snow in Manchester, TN., which is located 70 miles from Chatty about halfway to Nashville. I really don't think they called for anything other than a chance of freezing drizzle.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-01-14, 6:10 pm

18z nam just bombs memphis with a foot of snow...lol, to bad its not going to happen though

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-14, 6:24 pm

Just got a look at the 12z euro and 18z GFS and its ensembles. There seems to be big trend eastward.. meaning cyclogenesis may be too late for us here in TN. Im not "sticking a fork" in it just yet but the overall trend today is not a good one. Hopefully things look a little better on tonights 0z runs. We'll see

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Reb on 2013-01-14, 6:35 pm

This is why you dont make snow maps a week or two in advance and call for snow likely. Jmo

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-14, 6:41 pm

Reb wrote:This is why you dont make snow maps a week or two in advance and call for snow likely. Jmo

AGREED.... and we have a winner, ding ding ding!

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-14, 6:52 pm

Reb wrote:This is why you dont make snow maps a week or two in advance and call for snow likely. Jmo

LOL..surely you are not calling everything off just because you had one day of bad trends in guidance? Hell.. MRX officially just started mentioning snow/this system today. When I make storm graphics..I make them already knowing that many model runs will not support my forecast. That is just the nature of the beast and is part of the fun for me!

You know me as well as anyone here does Reb..so if you want someone to wait until the snow is hitting you in the face to make a forecast graphic I suggest turning on the news or going to www.weather.com or something Sleep

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-14, 7:04 pm

Grandpa Nasty wrote:Well Tooter,
Local news have all been saying pretty much dry and 50 Thursday and Fri. Now ABC did mention a possible mix Thursday night, which is a baby step. NBC say highs low 50's Thurs and Friday with showers south into Ga. Maybe ABC is looking harder and seeing something that might possibly develop.

Edit to add MRX is mentioning the "S" word Wednesday night. beer
Well then Nasty..MRX must have jinxed guidance runs today..lol Razz



Neals wrote:Glad to log back on and see some positive talk on the thread. I'll keep hoping for that 7 inches until we know for sure.
Nealy..if you get 7 inches..its PARTY AT NEALY'S HOUSE..I will bring the Keg!
lol!

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by shane03 on 2013-01-14, 7:07 pm

Toot wrote:Just got a look at the 12z euro and 18z GFS and its ensembles. There seems to be big trend eastward.. meaning cyclogenesis may be too late for us here in TN. Im not "sticking a fork" in it just yet but the overall trend today is not a good one. Hopefully things look a little better on tonights 0z runs. We'll see
. I saw earlier one of the mets over at American say he was not using the 18zgfs said it was to fast and something was off with the spead is why it pushed it east?

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

Post by Toot on 2013-01-14, 7:20 pm

shane03 wrote:
Toot wrote:Just got a look at the 12z euro and 18z GFS and its ensembles. There seems to be big trend eastward.. meaning cyclogenesis may be too late for us here in TN. Im not "sticking a fork" in it just yet but the overall trend today is not a good one. Hopefully things look a little better on tonights 0z runs. We'll see
. I saw earlier one of the mets over at American say he was not using the 18zgfs said it was to fast and something was off with the spead is why it pushed it east?

It may be too progressive Shane..well see what the 0z runs say. The thing is..the 18z GFS is supported by the 12z euro.

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Re: **Big Dog ULL/Southern Slider Jan 17th -18th 2013**

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