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Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

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Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-10, 9:03 am

Euro has crippling/major Ice Storm for parts of west TN Monday

People in western TN really need to monitor this..this could be pretty bad






Last edited by Toot on 2013-01-15, 6:01 pm; edited 3 times in total

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-10, 11:59 am

12z GFS continues the possibility of a bad ice storm across western middle TN. People in those areas may want to start paying attention a little closer to this being a real possibility.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by juju on 2013-01-10, 12:52 pm

This weekend torch
Guess, Im going to dig out the flip flops and bermuda shorts.. puke

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-10, 5:09 pm

Today's 12Z Euro is warmer than 0z from last night, but it's ensembles are very close to each other. It would make many folks on here in W TN and those along I-40 from Nashville to Knoxville N pretty happy if it verified like it looks like. Of course it will change, but it's nice to look at. Unfortunately, it says sorry S Mid and SE TN, I'm not giving you much at this time.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-10, 8:23 pm

My phrasing was bad on that post. Yeah, thats what I was saying, I 40 N special on 12z euro. Euro weeklies are rockin too from what I hear. Weeks 2, 3, and a new one now, week 4 evidently look great.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-10, 8:30 pm

I had know doubts and knew the cold was coming a week ago..but people thought I was wrong because each garbage run of the GFS in la la land suggested otherwise ..you cant take model runs in the long range serious but you cant get these weenies to understand that slap

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by snowman72 on 2013-01-10, 8:35 pm

What about K-Town, looks to be close. I40 splits it.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-10, 8:39 pm

I imagine this one if it verifies may overperform due to wetbulbing

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-10, 8:40 pm

I all posts for the strom system should be posten in the storm thread
http://www.tnweatherspot.com/t511-tennesse-big-dog-winter-storm-poss-17th-20th#20067

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-10, 11:21 pm

Im beginning to think we have a 2009/10 like winter aheade of us over the next two months Feb-mid March. MMW events are known for dominating the mid lattitudes with much lower than normal heights and they also induce strong to severe periods of -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO (Per Kocin Ku correlations)

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Reb on 2013-01-10, 11:33 pm

its always 2-3 weeks away. same as last year burn

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-10, 11:44 pm

Reb wrote:its always 2-3 weeks away. same as last year burn
No we are talking about next weekend..which is a week away stupid



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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Reb on 2013-01-11, 12:27 am

wont believe it until i see it at a closer range than that lol

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-11, 1:04 am

Toot wrote: There isnt much doubt in my mind that it will probably be the coldest airmass we have seen since 2010. The 12z EURO now shows the massive vortex moving southward like the gfs package

12zEuro temps in NE TN posssibly in single digits! Havent seen that since 009/10 winter


I have a feeling there will be a couple of cliipers bringing more even cold air than progged above as the Vortex charges south

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-11, 1:08 am

juju wrote: This weekend torch
Guess, Im going to dig out the flip flops and bermuda shorts.. puke

Lol..me too juju. Maybe even do some fishing..but there is a rude awakening coming when old man winter slams us back to treality late next week

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Reb on 2013-01-11, 1:08 am

woo hoo cold dry air! well maybe some clipper moisture that will just downslope the valley pals

smoke

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-11, 7:48 am

If someone wants to make a storm thread for this wave of LP it would be a good idea

Arctic front/wave of LP number 2- model graphics/disco

0Z CMC Precip type



CMC freezing rain accums



CMC snowfall





High Def euro graphics
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0z euro surface map at hr 96 (NOTICE THE 1033Mb High to the north)



0z Euro 850 temps hr 96



Euro min Surface temps for hr 96




0z euro also has a bullseye of 7-8 inches of snow in southern mid TN



Note- Starting next run of the euro these wxbell graphics will only be posted in the members only section. So if you want to see this threat unfold via the wxbell graphics you will need to be a member and logged in to view the "Memebers only winter storm graphics thread"

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-11, 9:17 am

Toot, many thanks for the graphics. Much appreciated. pals

My head is spinning right now trying to figure out how this is going to play out. The Mets are going to make their money over the next week. Big arctic air mass just to our northwest pushing up against a huge ridge to our southeast that doesn't want to budge, with wave after wave riding up the through the battle zone. Someone is going to get a nice surprise winter event. My guess right now would be somewhere between Nashville and Paducah (maybe a little further NW).

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-11, 9:29 am

Your welcome Snowdog..I went ahead and split these posts into a new thread to keep confusion down and the winter disco thread open for future pattern disco. A couple of posts were lost in the process..sorry about that yikes

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-11, 10:11 am

Looking at the 12z NAM snowfall map you posted...I'm quite surprised that we are now looking at a possible snowfall instead of a freezing rain event (in BNA area). The upper levels were quite warm, going from yesterday's skew-t's. It would take some time to cool down the upper layers. So I don't know if I'm buying the snow just yet. I still think rain and freezing rain are the best bets right now.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by jmundie on 2013-01-11, 10:28 am

I'm with snowdog - I see the warm layer between 700 and 850... I'm not really sure what to do with that. I don't know if the snow algos are just going haywire and are poorly programed (I doubt it) but this is certainly a tough forecast.

If the GFS comes back on board with precip and holds serve or falls on temps, then its game on for something frozen for sure.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-11, 10:40 am

Well..finally Mundie decides to grace us with his thoughts. Ive missed your posts and opinions Justin. I also totally agree with you and snowdog on the temp profiles Smile Its a tricky setup tho with the Arctic air/high to the west and north.

Dont be a stranger Mundie sunny

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-11, 11:05 am

jmundie wrote:I'm with snowdog - I see the warm layer between 700 and 850... I'm not really sure what to do with that. I don't know if the snow algos are just going haywire and are poorly programed (I doubt it) but this is certainly a tough forecast.

If the GFS comes back on board with precip and holds serve or falls on temps, then its game on for something frozen for sure.

The trend is currently our friend here in Middle-TN. This has gotten progressively colder in the last couple of days. If the modeling is correct and that big Arctic high is sitting to our northwest, the cold air will easily bleed southeast at the lower levels and we are easily looking at a messy ice situation. If the high pushes a bit further southeast a bit quicker and the mid levels can cool quickly enough we may turnover to snow for a time. Tricky forecast, it will be interesting to see how it actually plays out.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by jmundie on 2013-01-11, 1:13 pm

I've been super busy at work. I can only handle one forum when things get that way. I'm sure ill post some this weekend.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by ballpark on 2013-01-11, 1:47 pm

Well I am ready for winter time. It looks like the weather gone to change next week. Let the good times roll.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

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