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Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-11, 1:50 pm

Well..the cmc insists on more of asnow situation and continues to come east..almost leaving west TN out of the action now. Just goes to show how this pattern is crucially changing very quickly



And even gets east TN into the action now

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by MSR_93 on 2013-01-11, 1:57 pm

Been creepin on this forum for a while now, decided to make an account and get involved. Hopefully the trend doesnt go so far south/east it takes middle tn out of the picture, but the history of the models this season ain't to promising

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-11, 2:00 pm

Dang Toot, wish I had more time to post right now! Surprised this thing is trending East.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Adam2014 on 2013-01-11, 4:32 pm

I think snow is out of the question for areas south of I-40, and I do not think areas North of I-40 will see any either. The boundry layer just seems to warm for me in the midlevels, but ice is defintley in play of course. The scary thing is models are putting the heaviest ice accums in my area. I do not remember many overrunning events, but the last one I remember was the 2010 one. That was a different situation though as arctic air was retreated the area. This time it is moving in, and it will be able to counteract the effects of rain freezing and releasing heat so this could be a pretty bad situation where ever it sets up.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-11, 4:54 pm

Adam2014 wrote:I think snow is out of the question for areas south of I-40, and I do not think areas North of I-40 will see any either. The boundry layer just seems to warm for me in the midlevels, but ice is defintley in play of course. The scary thing is models are putting the heaviest ice accums in my area. I do not remember many overrunning events, but the last one I remember was the 2010 one. That was a different situation though as arctic air was retreated the area. This time it is moving in, and it will be able to counteract the effects of rain freezing and releasing heat so this could be a pretty bad situation where ever it sets up.

I think this is trending towards moderate lil snowstorm event even in your area Adam

The 12z doctor snowfall total graphic is posted in the member only section

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-11, 5:54 pm

Your buddy Kev on the other site is of course downplaying everything.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by emcf30 on 2013-01-11, 6:01 pm

Now that's a tad chilly cold



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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-11, 6:19 pm

snowdog wrote:Your buddy Kev on the other site is of course downplaying everything.

Um im not the one over there talking to him. Thats you and that is your buddy




emcf30 wrote:Now that's a tad chilly cold





No doubt uh oh

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-11, 6:22 pm

Toot wrote:Um im not the one over there talking to him. Thats you and that is your buddy

Nice. LOL!! rfl

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Eric on 2013-01-11, 6:35 pm

snowdog wrote:Your buddy Kev on the other site is of course downplaying everything.

Tad bit unfair don't you think?

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-11, 8:36 pm




lol!

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2013-01-11, 8:55 pm

Toot wrote:I all posts for the strom system should be posten in the storm thread
http://www.tnweatherspot.com/t511-tennesse-big-dog-winter-storm-poss-17th-20th#20067

I see not much has changed around here. You're running a top notch organization Toot, keep up the good work. Is there a thread for just call maps? I'd love to see a collection of the artwork you've put out there for this season.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Reb on 2013-01-11, 8:56 pm

Stovepipe wrote:
Toot wrote:I all posts for the strom system should be posten in the storm thread
http://www.tnweatherspot.com/t511-tennesse-big-dog-winter-storm-poss-17th-20th#20067

I see not much has changed around here. You're running a top notch organization Toot, keep up the good work. Is there a thread for just call maps? I'd love to see a collection of the artwork you've put out there for this season.

Toodles!

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-11, 8:57 pm

You can find all my artwork on my FB blog Stove

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Stovepipe on 2013-01-11, 8:58 pm

Toot wrote:You can find all my artwork on my FB blog Stove

Awesome, I'll check it out, thanks!
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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-01-11, 9:51 pm

snowdog wrote:Your buddy Kev on the other site is of course downplaying everything.
now would you expect anything different... personally, i think that is considered trolling . lol

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-11, 10:02 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:
snowdog wrote:Your buddy Kev on the other site is of course downplaying everything.
now would you expect anything different... personally, i think that is considered trolling . lol

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-11, 10:05 pm

lol

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-01-11, 10:08 pm

LMAO

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-11, 11:36 pm

So the NAM was interesting for middleTN tonight. Huge ice storm still showing up from around hour 60 on. Skew-t's show ground temps right at freezing. This run shows no possibility of snow. Warm layer is too "thick" in the mid-levels.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-12, 12:22 am

0z cmc




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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by ballpark on 2013-01-12, 12:31 am

Toot what kind of amounts our looking at with CMC that being shown.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-12, 12:40 am

The should be light but models are ahving a tuff time right now


Meanwhile..surface temps from the 0z GFS vortex....you do the math

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Adam2014 on 2013-01-12, 8:08 am

Toot wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:I think snow is out of the question for areas south of I-40, and I do not think areas North of I-40 will see any either. The boundry layer just seems to warm for me in the midlevels, but ice is defintley in play of course. The scary thing is models are putting the heaviest ice accums in my area. I do not remember many overrunning events, but the last one I remember was the 2010 one. That was a different situation though as arctic air was retreated the area. This time it is moving in, and it will be able to counteract the effects of rain freezing and releasing heat so this could be a pretty bad situation where ever it sets up.

I think this is trending towards moderate lil snowstorm event even in your area Adam

The 12z doctor snowfall total graphic is posted in the member only section
I do not think it will trend to snow at all Toot. The warm boundry layer is too thick per say. I will say if the NAM were to be believed I would have major problems in my county with ice, but the NAM is terrible in this range so right now I guess I will side with the Euro that gives me some ice but not much.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-12, 8:10 am

Adam2014 wrote:
Toot wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:I think snow is out of the question for areas south of I-40, and I do not think areas North of I-40 will see any either. The boundry layer just seems to warm for me in the midlevels, but ice is defintley in play of course. The scary thing is models are putting the heaviest ice accums in my area. I do not remember many overrunning events, but the last one I remember was the 2010 one. That was a different situation though as arctic air was retreated the area. This time it is moving in, and it will be able to counteract the effects of rain freezing and releasing heat so this could be a pretty bad situation where ever it sets up.

I think this is trending towards moderate lil snowstorm event even in your area Adam

The 12z doctor snowfall total graphic is posted in the member only section
I do not think it will trend to snow at all Toot. The warm boundry layer is too thick per say. I will say if the NAM were to be believed I would have major problems in my county with ice, but the NAM is terrible in this range so right now I guess I will side with the Euro that gives me some ice but not much.

And I believe it will trend to a snowstorm... what does it matter what we "think" could happen at this point? lol... the models are all we have at this juncture

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

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