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Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-12, 10:04 am

Tom, there is much more support for freezing rain right now vs snow.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Adam2014 on 2013-01-12, 10:16 am

tom23 wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:
Toot wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:I think snow is out of the question for areas south of I-40, and I do not think areas North of I-40 will see any either. The boundry layer just seems to warm for me in the midlevels, but ice is defintley in play of course. The scary thing is models are putting the heaviest ice accums in my area. I do not remember many overrunning events, but the last one I remember was the 2010 one. That was a different situation though as arctic air was retreated the area. This time it is moving in, and it will be able to counteract the effects of rain freezing and releasing heat so this could be a pretty bad situation where ever it sets up.

I think this is trending towards moderate lil snowstorm event even in your area Adam

The 12z doctor snowfall total graphic is posted in the member only section
I do not think it will trend to snow at all Toot. The warm boundry layer is too thick per say. I will say if the NAM were to be believed I would have major problems in my county with ice, but the NAM is terrible in this range so right now I guess I will side with the Euro that gives me some ice but not much.

And I believe it will trend to a snowstorm... what does it matter what we "think" could happen at this point? lol... the models are all we have at this juncture
What I believe will happen is supported by every single computer model besides the DGEX. So it is not like I am going off pure instinct. I have been studying the computer models and snow is not an option right now.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by tom23 on 2013-01-12, 10:49 am

snowdog wrote:Tom, there is much more support for freezing rain right now vs snow.

Snowdog, I know this. But this is a borderline event, as are all ice storms.We will not now for sure until the event actually is about to occur or even until it is actually occuring. To say that snow is not a possibility at all is not keeping the door open to the probability of the occurence.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-12, 10:59 am

Adam2014 wrote:
I do not think it will trend to snow at all Toot. The warm boundry layer is too thick per say. I will say if the NAM were to be believed I would have major problems in my county with ice, but the NAM is terrible in this range so right now I guess I will side with the Euro that gives me some ice but not much.
There is not much support for ice anymore Adam. You cant take temp profiles verbatim past a couple of days out. It takes alot things coming together to make ice.

Its funny how a certain someone on another forum had basically banned people from posting snow accumulation maps because they were showing snow and he thought it would all be ice/sleet. You should never totally disregard/ban model data just because you think its wrong.. because guess what..there is always the possibility that its right.
lapat
That was ridiculous and bad meteorology on his part! An ice event can trend to a snow event pretty quick and easily and this one has per the euro.


As you can see the 850 and boundary layer is now cold enough for snow in the western part of the state where the precip was progged at one time to fall through a warm boundary onto a freezing surface



Here is the latest euro's take on snowfall with this system


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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Adam2014 on 2013-01-12, 11:04 am

Toot wrote:
Adam2014 wrote:
I do not think it will trend to snow at all Toot. The warm boundry layer is too thick per say. I will say if the NAM were to be believed I would have major problems in my county with ice, but the NAM is terrible in this range so right now I guess I will side with the Euro that gives me some ice but not much.
There is not much support for ice anymore Adam. You cant take temp profiles verbatim past a couple of days out. It takes alot things coming together to make ice.

Its funny how a certain someone on another forum had basically banned people from posting snow accumulation maps because they were showing snow and he thought it would all be ice/sleet. You should never totally disregard/ban model data just because you think its wrong.. because guess what..there is always the possibility that its right.
lapat
That was ridiculous and bad meteorology on his part! An ice event can trend to a snow event pretty quick and easily and this one has.


As you can see the 850 and boundary layer is now cold enough for snow in the western part of the state where the precip was progged at one time to fall through a warm boundary onto a freezing surface


Here is the latest euro's take on snowfall with this system
How has it trended to a snow situation? Have you looked at the Nam or GFS? Neither support snow whatsoever... Unless I am seeing something wrong which I do not think I am.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Adam2014 on 2013-01-12, 11:08 am

I just do not see how you can say there is not much support for ice when the NAM and GFS clearly show plenty of support for ice. And I am not trolling I am just trying to understand your viewpoint. Even the Euro does not show any support for snow in my area according to that graphic. The only place it shows some support is the outer edge...

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-12, 11:15 am

Adam2014 wrote: How has it trended to a snow situation? Have you looked at the Nam or GFS? Neither support snow whatsoever... Unless I am seeing something wrong which I do not think I am.

What hrs are you talking about? I just told you how the euro went from an ice situation to a snow one. Surely you are not saying the NAM is correct over the euro..lol



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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-12, 11:20 am

The GFS isnt showing ANY ice and OHX isnt expecting any ice either

Nashville area
Monday night
A chance of rain and snow before midnight, then a slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday
A slight chance of rain and snow before noon, then a slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Adam2014 on 2013-01-12, 11:23 am

How is the GFS not showing any Ice lol? The 850s are too warm, and the freezing line is draped across the midstate. Here hold on I will post pictures.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Adam2014 on 2013-01-12, 11:24 am

Toot wrote:
Adam2014 wrote: How has it trended to a snow situation? Have you looked at the Nam or GFS? Neither support snow whatsoever... Unless I am seeing something wrong which I do not think I am.

What hrs are you talking about? I just told you how the euro went from an ice situation to a snow one. Surely you are not saying the NAM is correct over the euro..lol

I never said that, but you cannot just throw the NAM out either... Just like you cannot throw the Euro out.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-12, 11:25 am

Adam2014 wrote:How is the GFS not showing any Ice lol? The 850s are too warm, and the freezing line is draped across the midstate. Here hold on I will post pictures.

Post it..so I can see what ur talking about because I cannot find much support on any model for ice anymore. I will be waiting

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Adam2014 on 2013-01-12, 11:30 am

Okay here is the 12z GFS hour 84. 850 temperatures are clearly to warm for snow here.




I cannot find the surface temps on the NCEP, but they would show that most of the midstate is near freezing which would indicate freezing rain.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-12, 11:34 am

Adam2014 wrote:Okay here is the 12z GFS hour 84. 850 temperatures are clearly to warm for snow here.


LOL...here is the gfs at the same hour with the 32 degree line!

You see that red line? That is your surface 32 degree line...this is all rain buddy

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Adam2014 on 2013-01-12, 11:37 am

No the 32 degree line is drapped across the midstate on wunderground, but you cannot take pictures of it. I would post that....

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-12, 11:49 am

Adam2014 wrote:No the 32 degree line is drapped across the midstate on wunderground, but you cannot take pictures of it. I would post that....
wx underground is wrong.


Here is the nam sounding at 84 ALL RAIN

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-12, 11:50 am

I would trust the NAM on temps over the GFS at this time frame. That being said, below is a sounding for BNA. That is much closer to a freezing rain event than a snow event. Verbatim it is probably a really cold rain but very close to an icing situation (for trees and other elevated areas).

NAM hour 72

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-12, 11:53 am

I was just posting the nam so we could disprove wxundergrounds temp profile. The nam is not really to be trusted past 48 hrs. I would trust the euro's temp profiles at this range


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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-12, 11:58 am

Well this far out all you really need to know is the possibility is there. The NAM shows the temp profile warming through the day anyway so if it were to ice a bit in the early morning it wouldn't be much more than a light event.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-12, 11:59 am

snowdog wrote:Well this far out all you really need to know is the possibility is there.
Agreed Snowdog..definately a close call situation and needs to be monitored..but it looks to be trending away from any ice situation for TN

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-12, 12:04 pm

For the last couple of days it seems the trend was to cool this time frame. With a 1033 High sitting in NW Illinois, it is going to be really easy for the cold at the surface layer to bleed southeast.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-12, 12:06 pm

snowdog wrote:For the last couple of days it seems the trend was to cool this time frame. With a 1033 High sitting in NW Illinois, it is going to be really easy for the cold at the surface layer to bleed southeast.

Yeah it needs to be watched..im by no means saying that an ice event wont take place. The models could easily be underestamating the low level cold air but the trends over the last few model runs have definately been a little warmer at the surface and are now showing not much of an ice threat.

Will be watching for trends tho

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-12, 3:07 pm

Hi res models says forgeta bout it if ur looking for frozen precip



I think its safe to say this wintry threat is dead


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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-12, 10:14 pm

Yep, looking dead. Seems the southeast ridge is going to win this battle. The arctic high pushes and the southeast ridge pushes back.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-13, 11:19 am

Uh oh...Is the GFS playin games again?


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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-13, 12:08 pm

I still have my doubts about this one but models are definately trending back towards a wintry threat today. Folks in middle and west TN will need to watch this one..it could be a sneaky one

4km NAM showing a mixed bag


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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

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