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Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-13, 3:00 pm

12zEuro continues to suggest some accumulating snow with this arctic boundary.

If you're not a member here..register to get access to the members only section where you will find hard to find model graphics like these
12z euro snowfall through the next 54 hrs

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by secleveland on 2013-01-14, 2:48 pm

So who getting a mix ? The Rader is showing mix in the west

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-14, 3:09 pm

Evidently those in west TN are experiencing mostly light snow and sleet. Further south more of a freezing rain/sleet mix across southern middle/n ms/n al.


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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by ballpark on 2013-01-14, 4:20 pm

It is sleeting and snowing in WhiteHouse and 30 degrees appear to be kind of moderate right now. Keep you updated

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by ballpark on 2013-01-14, 4:24 pm

Finally got some winter weather nothing like being shut out for a year.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-14, 4:30 pm

Moderate sleet just went through the downtown Nashville area. No rain at all. Mostly sleet with some graupel/snow mixed in.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by ballpark on 2013-01-14, 4:38 pm

snowdog wrote:Moderate sleet just went through the downtown Nashville area. No rain at all. Mostly sleet with some graupel/snow mixed in.
good deal Snowdog what do the roads look like?

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-14, 4:53 pm

Roads are wet right now, but looks like another moderate round of sleet coming through soon. I'm guessing they will stay wet until the sun goes down. It is 30 degrees right now and we haven't been above freezing all day. Once they sun does down, you do the math.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-14, 5:59 pm

Well the next round wasn't sleet but friggin freezing rain. Nashville has the worst luck. How the hell do you start as sleet and changeover to freezing rain at the end of the day as the sun is going down? OK. rant over. Anyway, everything here has a nice coating of ice on it now. Yipppee rain and 30 degrees. gun

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-14, 6:28 pm

This is a conspiracy!! The whole state is under a WWA except for us poor old east Tennesseans. A conspiracy I tell you!

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-01-14, 6:32 pm

Toot wrote:This is a conspiracy!! The whole state is under a WWA except for us poor old east Tennesseans. A conspiracy I tell you!
there is even some counties just south of me, will go under a winter storm watch starting 9 am in the morning

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by etnwx on 2013-01-14, 6:46 pm

Toot wrote:This is a conspiracy!! The whole state is under a WWA except for us poor old east Tennesseans. A conspiracy I tell you!

More like a damn curse if you ask me. burn

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-14, 6:59 pm


Code:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0512 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN NEWD INTO NERN KY
 
  CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
 
  VALID 142312Z - 150415Z
 
  SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN WITH
  RATES OF AROUND 0.05 IN/HR...WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.
 
  DISCUSSION...A BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
  ADVANCE NEWD FROM MIDDLE TN TOWARD THE OH RIVER IN TANDEM WITH THE
  TRAJECTORY OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY
  OF A POLEWARD DIRECTED WARM CONVEYOR BELT. ENHANCED ELEVATED
  WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN
  GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH LIQUID-EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05
  IN/HR -- LOCALLY HIGHER IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES. THE WAA WILL
  ALSO SUPPORT A MODEST ELEVATED WARM LAYER CAPABLE OF
  COMPLETELY/PARTIALLY MELTING DESCENDING ICE CRYSTALS. HOWEVER...WITH
  SFC WET BULB TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA --
  I.E. SOMEWHAT COLDER THAN WHAT IS POSITED BY NAM/GFS/RR
  OUTPUT...REFREEZING WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN THE SFC LAYER.
 
  AS SUCH...A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
  REGION...WITH WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPANDING NEWD TOWARD THE
  OH RIVER THROUGH 00Z. THIS IS BACKED BY OFFICIAL SFC
  OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH GROUND-TRUTH REPORTS FROM THE NSSL
  PRECIPITATION IDENTIFICATION NEAR THE GROUND /PING/ PROJECT. THESE
  INDICATE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN HAVING RECENTLY OCCURRED ACROSS
  MIDDLE TN AND UPSTREAM INTO NRN MS/AL. WITH RELATIVELY MARGINAL
  GROUND TEMPERATURES FOR FREEZING...ICING WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ON
  ELEVATED OBJECTS INCLUDING POWER LINES AND TREES...ALONG WITH METAL
  OBJECTS.
 
  THE BACK EDGE OF THE MORE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION WILL ADVANCE NEWD
  THROUGH MIDDLE TN TOWARD SRN KY THROUGH 00-02Z IN CORRESPONDENCE
  WITH DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION THAT FOLLOWS THE PASSAGE OF THE CORE
  OF THE IMPULSE. PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE DECREASED
  AREA-WIDE BY LATE EVENING.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Mrgolf on 2013-01-14, 7:31 pm

Toot, we got a small icing event here in southaven ms.(nw miss). Everything iced up and the I55 bridge going to arkansas is shut down. Alot of roads are bad. We had the whole shibang around here today. I do miss the classic southern slider though. Suprised no1 mentioned much about the euro. Looked real cold to me yikes

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-01-14, 7:42 pm

Mrgolf wrote:Toot, we got a small icing event here in southaven ms.(nw miss). Everything iced up and the I55 bridge going to arkansas is shut down. Alot of roads are bad. We had the whole shibang around here today. I do miss the classic southern slider though. Suprised no1 mentioned much about the euro. Looked real cold to me yikes
yep kevin, the euro looks cold especially starting early next week... nice artic front poised to come down

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-14, 8:05 pm

Lol, congrats kevin on the icing. Yeah, ec looked cold around 216. I posted that under the historic 85 style thread. Had -20c 850's over us. Thats about -4 F or so. Not quite 85 levels but cold enough, lol. Was bone dry though . New euro weeklies are still good though fwiw.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-14, 8:18 pm

Lol, my temp has taken a nosedive here since sundown. Was 43 earlier, now 38. Don't know how much more cold air can filter in, but its already colder than it was supposed to be overnight. I'm not expecting anything frozen overnight, but it is interesting that cold air is penetrating a little more than expected.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by VFL on 2013-01-14, 8:20 pm

Hummm, any cause for concern in the valley north of I40? Temp is down to 35' in North Knox Co. NWS says 40' for the low.
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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-14, 8:38 pm

Lol, they are going to bust bad on lows. I think the further west you are, the more likely to get some frozen stuff. Seen it over and over. Cold air of this nature is shallow, but dense, and can spread out easily. Just how low it goes is anyones guess. MRX hinted Around that they were somewhat concerned about the cold air being so close. However, they thought the plateau would hold it up, but apparently, it's not necessarily true. I don't have the experience yet to know about the plateau's ability to block arctic air, but I have seen the Ozarks hold up cold air from getting into N MS. we will just have to see what happens in the next few hours I guess.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-14, 9:25 pm

Ya Jed..that cold air is spilling in pretty quickly..not sure how far east it gets tho.. as models are really not dropping heights much further tonight. That said..those same models are handling this Arctic front horribly. Places out in west/middle TN may be in for a nice little suprise with this thing stalled out for a day or two until the big dog comes rolling out of the SW and pushes things east!! beer

Latest AFD from MRX

Code:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
813 PM EST MON JAN 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD FREEZING RAIN INTO THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COUNTIES OF TN AND PART OF SW VA. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAVE DROPPED MUCH
FASTER THAN EXPECTED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN PARTS OF
BLEDSOE...MARION...MORGAN AND SCOTT COUNTIES IN TN AND LEE AND WISE
IN VA. ELSEWHERE FARTHER EAST IN THE VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAD
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S BELOW FORECAST LOWS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING UP FROM THE SW WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS WITH
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE ABOVE COUNTIES STAYING IN THE LOWER 30S. WITH
THE ROADS STILL QUITE WARM FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM
WEATHER ICING IS MOST LIKELY ON EXPOSED SURFACES LIKE TREES AND
POWER LINES AND POSSIBLY CARS THAT HAVE SAT OUTSIDE. NORTH WINDS OF
ABOUT 10 MILES PER HOUR WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. BOTH THE NAM
AND RUC KEEP THIS AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 9Z TUESDAY. FLOOD WATCH WILL BE REISSUED LATER WITH
BEST FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST TN
AND SOUTHWEST NC REGION.


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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by John1122 on 2013-01-14, 11:09 pm

TNZ012>014-035-081>083-098-VAZ001-002-150900-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0001.130115T0056Z-130115T0900Z/
SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MARION-
LEE-WISE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...
WARTBURG...DUNLAP...PIKEVILLE...DAYTON...JASPER...JONESVILLE...
WISE...NORTON
756 PM EST MON JAN 14 2013 /656 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM
EST /3 AM CST/ TUESDAY.

* EVENT...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER EAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WITH A MIXTURE OF...FREEZING
RAIN...AND COLD RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.*

* TIMING...ALTHOUGH ROADWAYS ARE RELATIVELY WARM...A LIGHT ICE
COATING COULD OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES TONIGHT.*

* IMPACTS...ALTHOUGH ICE MAY NOT IMPACT THE MAIN ROADS TOO MUCH...A
COATING OF ICE ON TREES COULD LEAD TO A FALLING BRANCH POTENTIAL.
ANY WINTRY MIX ON ELEVATED SURFACES WILL LEAD TO SLICK CONDITIONS
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.*

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS
AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-01-15, 3:58 pm

Breaking News . It is sleeting like pouring piss out of a boot in Dyersburg. 1/4 inch on all surfaces. Shocked

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by AndyP on 2013-01-15, 4:55 pm

As of 4 p.m today TEMA will declare a state of emergency for the entire state due to ice, freezing rain and potential flooding, per Newschannel 5.
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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-01-15, 5:02 pm

It is getting serious road wise in Dyersburg. Thank God it is about 3/4 sleet and 1/4 rain. It has been coming down for about an hour and a half. Turning to about 1/4 snow as I type.

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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

Post by Toot on 2013-01-15, 6:45 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:It is getting serious road wise in Dyersburg. Thank God it is about 3/4 sleet and 1/4 rain. It has been coming down for about an hour and a half. Turning to about 1/4 snow as I type.
Glad you are getting in on the action DW..stay safe out there and keep us updated.




Meanwhile here in east TN we are having flodding issues. I snapped pictures all day long while working today. A couple of these images are "wow" so I felt i should share them

White Pine, TN - Jefferson County








Del Rio, TN - Cocke county






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Re: Jan 13-15 Arctic Boundary Ice/Sleet/Snow/Flooding threat

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