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Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

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Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by Toot on 2013-01-12, 2:38 pm

Normally I wouldnt be taking these extended range guidance products so seriously but they have been very consistent in dropping a 480DM Polar Vortex into the Oh valley/Great lakes region for several runs in a row now. This will mean the possibility of subzero temps as far south as the TN valley and will likely even send single digits and teens deep into dixie and the old south! There could be a devastating freeze for the Florida orange/strawberry crops/farms.

Everyone in the eastern US needs to monitor this unfolding situation as it could be the coldest temps we have seen since 1985!!

Click on image to enlarge



Last edited by Toot on 2013-01-18, 11:06 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by joereb1 on 2013-01-12, 2:50 pm

Toot, is this something that will last or will it be short lived?

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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by Toot on 2013-01-12, 2:59 pm

Joereb...These Strat warming induced events usually last the rest of the winter but there will be short periods when temps moderate while the whole pattern just reloads again. This second half of winter could rival the winter of 2009/10 in terms of cold and snow with the active southern stream

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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by joereb1 on 2013-01-12, 4:18 pm

This is my first winter of living here in Knoxville from Florida, so I pray for the frozen tundra to come on down rock on

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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-12, 7:52 pm

joereb1 wrote:This is my first winter of living here in Knoxville from Florida, so I pray for the frozen tundra to come on down rock on

Lol, tundra is cool but it can lose it's appeal after a week or two. That being said, it's been awhile, so bring it on down!

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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by Toot on 2013-01-12, 8:27 pm

This is the GFS 10+ days out but Yes that is 40 degrees below normal in some spots and even if its overdone..WOW!

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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-12, 8:48 pm

Lol Toot, that is actually colder than 85 if it did verify. That would be about -30-40F for most of TN. Freakin unreal. Got to be overdone, but insane to see it modeled like that!

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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-12, 9:11 pm

Nm facepalm I'm in pigeon forge with my family for the weekend, not seeing that graph right. That is not surface temps, that departures from normal. My bad. Still cold, as late jan. Averages are in the 40s, so that would at least equate to mid teens if not colder around lunch time, if I'm reading it right.

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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by Toot on 2013-01-13, 9:03 am

Jed33 wrote:Nm facepalm I'm in pigeon forge with my family for the weekend, not seeing that graph right. That is not surface temps, that departures from normal. My bad. Still cold, as late jan. Averages are in the 40s, so that would at least equate to mid teens if not colder around lunch time, if I'm reading it right.

Lol...the average hi and lo around here for Jan 24th (When that graphic was valid for) is around 25/45 so that 40 degrees below normal would equate to a high of 5 and a low around -15 if that graphic were to verify!

That is definately not far from 1985 cold..lol cold


Meanwhile..I have posted the more believevble and latest euro temperature graphics in the members only section


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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-13, 9:14 am

The models are all like, "No trust us this time the cold will show". club

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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by Toot on 2013-01-13, 9:20 am

Yeah..the ensembles are locked in now...now we just want to know how low can it go?


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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-13, 9:08 pm

Haven't seen much on this thread today. I hear a little mixed opinions on it, esp. Bc the models are not as cold as yesterday. Probably correcting themselves. Robert is not fully sold on the outbreak, and mentions that we will just have to wait and see, which I guess is the best advice at this point.

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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by Toot on 2013-01-13, 9:55 pm

12z Guidance definately backed down from the vodka cold..but that is the nature of the beast when dealing with anything past day 8. The major strat warming supports something vodka like in the extended...Lets see what 0z guidance says

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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-14, 2:06 pm

12z seems a little colder for the Arctic blast next week, esp. Euro, as it looks like -20C at 850 makes it down to Chattanooga at hour 216, or day 9. That would be about -4F. Not exactly 1985, but it could trend back toward that. I haven't seen the maps of the Euro, as I'm at work right now. I'm just relying on Mets on other boards to tell the general synopsis. I think the cold is coming and coming hard. I think we get a few days cold/frigid, few days not as cold, back to few days cold/frigid. Somewhere in there, though, I really believe the pontential is there to see lows drop below 5F. I think there is enough model support, and enough signs pointing to this. I hope beyond hope too, that we can get at least enough snow to whiten the ground in the process. Also, I Hope everyone enjoyed the 70's the other day, lol. It's a long time to spring.

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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by Toot on 2013-01-14, 11:31 pm

This is some impressive warming at 10Mb..thats definately gonna argue for a colder pattern over the the next few weeks



The super ensemble analogs from todays GFS look like something out of 1985



However..the NCEP ensembles lack any significant -NAO into the extended and that may end up keeping this cold at bay. If the NAO drops negative..its likely to get brutally cold.

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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by memoriesof85&93 on 2013-01-17, 7:18 pm

Hey Toot,
I know that we have been focused in on the current weather event but I just wondered what the latest is on this cold event that is coming. I see that MRX has us in the mid-40s on the 24th and next week overall looks kinda blah…except maybe one day with a high in the mid-30’s perhaps
When you or anyone may get time, any thoughts/updates on this would be greatly appreciated!
Thanks!
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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by Toot on 2013-01-17, 7:54 pm

I will try to look into it tomorrow..Its been a while since I have looked at anything past the short range due to tracking todays system. Right now..im gonna take a break from the models as I am dead wore out and am in desperate need of sleep..lol
Sleep

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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-18, 10:49 am

I think you will like the look of the long range Toot. CFS2 looks good and MJO looks to be progressing into favorable phases.

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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by Clarksville Snowman on 2013-01-18, 8:28 pm

Shout when something looks good in the medium range, the long range is wearing me down. It would be different if the long range verified a little but this year so far it's been a bad joke. Normally I could get excited about long range, but now I'm not going to get excited until it gets real which is in the 4-5 day range.

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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-01-18, 8:31 pm

Clarksville Snowman wrote:Shout when something looks good in the medium range, the long range is wearing me down. It would be different if the long range verified a little but this year so far it's been a bad joke. Normally I could get excited about long range, but now I'm not going to get excited until it gets real which is in the 4-5 day range.
great idea clarksville snowman... models have been piss poor in mid range, less long range this year... cant believe we are perhaps heading in the direction were we had 2 bad winters in a row, outside the ull for our east tenn. friends... winter this year has been blah.

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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by Toot on 2013-01-18, 8:41 pm

While I agree..this winter has been lackluster aside from the HELLACIOUS thundersnow here yesterday...lol its only about half way over. So the slogan "Dont judge a book by its cover" applies here

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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by Toot on 2013-01-18, 10:54 pm

Not 85 style but still PLENTY cold if the NAM is correct

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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by Coach B on 2013-01-19, 7:15 am

Last night's EURO has reinforcing cold again next weekend then more very cold out in voodoo land. If we can keep the cold in the neighborhood our odds are pretty good that something else will pop up at some point. Mid Jan thru mid Feb is peak time for snow.

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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by SEMonroeWx on 2013-01-19, 10:11 am

Looking at the teleconnections this morning, they look fairly decent for the last week of Jan heading into the start of Feb IMO.

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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

Post by SEMonroeWx on 2013-01-19, 12:10 pm

12z NAM - lows near 0, GFS - lows in the teens Tues morning here

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Re: Arctic Outbreak Possible (85 style?)

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