January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

skillsweather wrote:Ok if it ice its not calling for 14 inches of ice lol

Skills..im trying really hard not to be a dickhead here. Just read and think!

Toot wrote: Its either rain or snow by the models way of thinking.

Good point Skills. It's not a foot of ice, although, it's possible to get massive amounts of ice. I have witnessed 2in buildup of zr, with 2in ip on top, then 3in snow on top of that. Aka jan 85. I didn't live there in feb. 94, but I know that some places in n ms got 4+ inches of zr on all surfaces. Not something we ever want to see.

Code:

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 PM EST WED JAN 23 2013

VALID 00Z THU JAN 24 2013 - 00Z SAT JAN 26 2013

...SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC...

...FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD
TO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

A CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RACE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.  THE STORM WILL PRODUCE
SNOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE VIRGINIA COAST BY THURSDAY.  THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST WESTWARD TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP DOWNWIND FROM
THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST ON THURSDAY MORNING.  LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/CENTRAL
GULF COAST AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY.  BETWEEN THE RAIN
AND SNOW ... A REGION OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ALSO ON FRIDAY
MORNING.

MEANWHILE ... A STORM MOVING OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY.  THE SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE RAIN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.  SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH SNOW MOVING INLAND TO
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THURSDAY MORNING
... WANING BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONALLY ... THE RAIN AND
SNOW WILL END OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. 
FURTHERMORE ... SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

IN ADDITION ... A NEW FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.  RAIN WILL BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWEST COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING AND MOVING INLAND ON
FRIDAY.  SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. 

Neals wrote:Not to get the thread off topic but I also seen where we could expect a coating to an inch tonight. Has anyone else seen this anywhere?

Yeah I seen where MRX mentions frozen precip tonight but Radar/satellite says that its basically impossible

Wow I just watched mark Reynolds forecast live at 11, calling for trace amounts to 1-3 if the "nam " is right ...what am I missing here? Every output of the last nam showed more then that...his last forecast was for trace amounts last friday

Local guys put out the info just now, but were kinda blah. It was obvious Todd was using the hires nam and rpm models, but david seemed to use the in house models. He thinks knox changes to rain by the end, and they may. Lol he said knox. High is 38 which occurs at midnight, and is 2he current temp. Meanwhile, morristown is currently 30 and he says 37 for a high. Little bit of inconsistency there David. If it falls for knox, it falls for mtown. Sorry, just rambling here

I'm surprised at the relative warmth just south of me.

It's 38 in Knox, 39 in Crossville, 35 in Oak Ridge.

It's 25 here and has been below freezing since 6pm.

My biggest ice storms were Christmas 1998 that I made a thread about, and two in the early 80s that were around 3/4ths inch each.

The heavy ice storms are better for travel. If it rains really hard the ice begins floating off the road. I've always found the worst travel in .15 to .3 or so of ice.

Yeah John, knox. Has been running quite a bit warmer than me too here lately. It's prob. A combination of several things, UHI obviously, but snowpack for one is closer to us than them. Heck, theres still snow in the shade around here, also just the trajectory of the flow of arctic air. The further N you go, the more impact this airmass has had.

The 00z NAM text output shows .80 of mostly sleet/zr at Tri-Cities, briefly goes to around 32 for about .07 of the precip that falls. .45 sleet/zr before changing to rain at Knoxville/Alcoa, Knox gets more liquid per 00z NAM. .71 all sleet/zr in Crossville, precip is gone from Crossville and it never gets above 31.

That said, if you've lived here long you know how your area does in these events. South/West Knoxville to North/East Knoxville for instance often has an extra hour or two of frozen in situations like this.

I know my area and it tends to hold onto freezing rain for a long time due to steep valleys here.

Well I live in tri at about 1500 elevation and the city below me is around 1200 ....here's hoping more then .o7 of the .80 qpf fall as snow...I really don't want to deal with frz rain and sleet ain't much fun lol...

John1122 wrote:The 00z NAM text output shows .80 of mostly sleet/zr at Tri-Cities, briefly goes to around 32 for about .07 of the precip that falls. .45 sleet/zr before changing to rain at Knoxville/Alcoa, Knox gets more liquid per 00z NAM. .71 all sleet/zr in Crossville, precip is gone from Crossville and it never gets above 31.

That said, if you've lived here long you know how your area does in these events. South/West Knoxville to North/East Knoxville for instance often has an extra hour or two of frozen in situations like this.

I know my area and it tends to hold onto freezing rain for a long time due to steep valleys here.

Experience is definately a plus in a scenario like this. There is so many things that could throw the models off in such a close call. I mean you have a warm advection regime aloft but at the same time you have arctic air near the surface. There is just no way to have a good hold on this situation. Im not sure I ever seen a similar setup

Snowfacial wrote:Well I live in tri at about 1500 elevation and the city below me is around 1200 ....here's hoping more then .o7 of the .80 qpf fall as snow...I really don't want to deal with frz rain and sleet ain't much fun lol...

According to that sounding, no snow falls at Tri. Just sleet and freezing rain. The .07 was liquid per the text output for the sounding.

That said, it's one run of one model. East Tennessee's extreme number of micro-climates come into play in events like this. There might me 2-3 in an individual county around here.

Thank John, just goes to show the ever changing models, a day ago it was comfortably snow but low qpf to work with, now it's the sleet monster

Winds from te SW have really pumped up our temps. At 8:00 my weather station was reading 38 and in just 4 1/2 hours has risen to 47. Temps are getting more in line with Atlanta 11:00 temps.

EDIT: Just to say 1am reading is now up to a smooth 50 degrees. Air temps warming a LOT overnight. Local stations didn't mention rising temps. Predicting lows of mid to upper 30's. I believe we have hit our high temp for the day, albeit in the early morning hours.

Temps will warm or stay steady until cold front passes..front now located in northwestern TN

Toot you buying this sleet frz rn trend?

Snowfacial wrote:Toot you buying this sleet frz rn trend?

Most certainly..I never really bought the snow to begin with. The setup is not one that usually produces snow here. I will be shocked if I see any snow accumulation

I take it you plan a second call map?

I heard the gfs was coming in with less precipitation. Is east tennessee still looking like we will see any significant icing? Thanks.

Snowfacial wrote:I take it you plan a second call map?

No..the call map is based on model data. That last post is based on what should normally happen. Im afraid we no longer live in a what normally happens world anymore!

jazzy wrote:I heard the gfs was coming in with less precipitation. Is east tennessee still looking like we will see any significant icing? Thanks.

Yes

The GFS has waffled back and fourth but still generally shows .25-.50 over a good portion of Central and East Tennessee. If you average most of the 00z model runs that are out East Tennessee generally averages around .40 give to take a bit. The NAM is the most moisture laden, the SREF is probably the least. But the SREF trended wetter from 15z to 21z.

Temp warmed here too, went from 25 up to 34 but has started falling again, down to 31 now.

43 at TYS. 27 is the supposed low...we will see lol

Lol, back down to 26 here at the house. That front means business!

Related to our storm, isee warnings .and advisories way further S than I expected. interesting to see the ones in w tn and ne al