January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Yeah..ensembles are still all over the place. Probably still need some better data ingested into the models. The chances of TN seeing significant snowfall from this system is still pretty low. I still look for of a clipper system more so than a lakes cutter.

Where any secondary low might develop is anyones guess at this point tho

Toot wrote:Yeah..ensembles are still all over the place. Probably still need some better data ingested into the models. The chances of TN seeing significant snowfall from this system is still pretty low. I still look for of a clipper system more so than a lakes cutter.

Where any secondary low might develop is anyones guess at this point tho

We usually do pretty well in N TN from Clipper type systems this time of year. Maybe we will have an better ideal after we get inside the 84hr window.

i am beginning to like a severe threat right at the months end... still in la la land... but euro is on board with the gfs now since its gotten inside 240... i will have my eye on it... i know noaa has been sending recon flights in and out of the pacific to check out things.

I think that storm around the 30th will end up pushed further south. So the severe threat may be along the deep south and coast. May end up a bigger winter threat!!!!

ballpark wrote: We usually do pretty well in N TN from Clipper type systems this time of year. Maybe we will have an better ideal after we get inside the 84hr window.

Agreed..and clippers can definately be the one of the most surprising types of storm system around here. I love a good clipper storm..they only seem to be around just a few weeks outta the year! That may have something to do with my infatuation with them...or it might just be all their cool names
"Alberta Clipper"
"Mantioba Mauler"
"Saskatchewan Screamer"

I like anyway I can get it! From the south from the north bring it. I need to build just one snowman this year and sip on snowcream!

HPC has flights into the upper level energy of this thing for the next three days. They evidently think there is potential for a major snowstorm somewhere. Where being the keyword here..LOL!

Could the DGEX pull a coupe de gras?

Toot wrote:HPC has flights into the upper level energy of this thing for the next three days. They evidently think there is potential for a major snowstorm somewhere. Where being the keyword here..LOL!

Could the DGEX pull a coupe de gras?

It would be nice if the low dives further south and slams Tennessee. But I think kentucky/indi are the ones in line. We will see by wed/thur time frame

Guys, we may have a legit threat here again. Guidance continues to trend colder. Even MRX agrees that mixed precip is likely thurs. Night b4 changing to rain fri. Then back to snow fri. Night into sat. This afd was written though before 6z, which was even colder than 0z. After this system, the Euro drops in some serious arctic air-colder than this shot coming later today, so I'm getting more optimistic about it for sure.

I might add, that 6z is kinda funny, but it doesn't bring in quite as much cold as the euro. Using phone, so can't post graphics. Interesting that the gfs, a model with a cold bias has been playing catch up to the euro lately.

The 06z shows a pretty big ice storm for East Tennessee from 40 north on Friday.

The snowfall map shows several inches of snow but precip type maps suggest ice.

Sounding 1 pm Friday.

New here and just trying to learn a few things.
Where do yo look that tells you the precipitation will be ice?

You can find precip type maps on instant weather maps site. They are suggesting sleet over much of East Tennessee, with some freezing rain that changes to snow.

On the sounding I posted you see the column above freezing just above 850mb. The surface temp is about -2c which is around 28. The column being that cold from 850 to the surface would suggest sleet.

Thank you. I'm a complete amateur but very interested in learning how to interpret the soundings and models.

It looks to me the 6z is showing the low futher south than the 0z run. I think it is a pretty big adjustment in the models. The 0z had it over NTN and the O6z has it over NAlabama about a 150 mile swing south. If pattern continues it will be interesting.

John1122 wrote:Sounding 1 pm Friday.

Sleetstorm

destair wrote:Thank you. I'm a complete amateur but very interested in learning how to interpret the soundings and models.

http://www.tnweatherspot.com/t95-how-to-read-a-skew-t-chart-sounding

Toot wrote:

John1122 wrote:Sounding 1 pm Friday.

Sleetstorm

destair wrote:Thank you. I'm a complete amateur but very interested in learning how to interpret the soundings and models.

http://www.tnweatherspot.com/t95-how-to-read-a-skew-t-chart-sounding

This helps. Thanks.

6z ensembles have some especially awesome looks.

jmundie wrote:6z ensembles have some especially awesome looks.

The 12z shifted the low back North. What do the 12z ensembles show?

12z Euro is really really close to amazing. All of KY gets snow this run, except far northwest.

Yeah Mundie, that's really close for a large section of the state, esp. N half. NE TN gets in anyway, but I'm only about 50mi NE of the black line. Would think that that would be a rain to sleet to snow event for most, maybe sleet to snow for NE TN. Don't know though. I'd like to see the GFS come on board again with this, but the way it has been performing this winter, I wouldn't trust it at all, even within 2 days of the event. Euro is not much better, but at least it's a little better. We'll have to see what the NAM shows for the event, as it was very close to having this last event pegged from the get go.

Euro bringing the snow futher south now. I think we going to be in the ball game on this one.

Once again guys this is a Kentucky storm clipping ne Tennessee! I want it bad but just don't see it just yet! Maybe later models show up for us here in middle tn. I'am talking snow!

Looks like a strong clipper system is now agreed upon by guidance for this coming weekend. The track still needs to be ironed down but I-40 and north may be in the ballgame here.

Graphics posted in the members section.