WRF cast
Satellite Loop
Current Watches
Current Snow Cover
Conus Radar
Regional Radar
Tennessee Radar
SE RADAR
Enlarge
24 hr Temp change
Current MDs
Regional Temps
Conus Temps
Current CPC NAO and forecast
Top posters
Toot (6644)
 
Stovepipe (4148)
 
Adam2014 (1424)
 
tennessee storm09 (1302)
 
Jed33 (930)
 
windstorm (891)
 
John1122 (885)
 
snowdog (855)
 
Homemommy (824)
 
WxFreak (812)
 


January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Page 2 of 15 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 8 ... 15  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Toot on 2013-01-20, 4:33 pm

Yeah..ensembles are still all over the place. Probably still need some better data ingested into the models. The chances of TN seeing significant snowfall from this system is still pretty low. I still look for of a clipper system more so than a lakes cutter.

Where any secondary low might develop is anyones guess at this point tho

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by ballpark on 2013-01-20, 5:39 pm

Toot wrote:Yeah..ensembles are still all over the place. Probably still need some better data ingested into the models. The chances of TN seeing significant snowfall from this system is still pretty low. I still look for of a clipper system more so than a lakes cutter.

Where any secondary low might develop is anyones guess at this point tho
We usually do pretty well in N TN from Clipper type systems this time of year. Maybe we will have an better ideal after we get inside the 84hr window.

ballpark
Founding Member

Posts : 155
Join date : 2011-12-07
Location : White House

View user profile http://www.leaguelineup.com/mtnsa

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-01-20, 6:23 pm

i am beginning to like a severe threat right at the months end... still in la la land... but euro is on board with the gfs now since its gotten inside 240... i will have my eye on it... i know noaa has been sending recon flights in and out of the pacific to check out things.

tennessee storm09
Severe Wx Specialist

Posts : 1302
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 55
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-01-20, 6:41 pm

I think that storm around the 30th will end up pushed further south. So the severe threat may be along the deep south and coast. May end up a bigger winter threat!!!! wacko

_________________
REMEMBER!!!!!! The day when man and dinasouar walked the earth together..... In the beginning things were good!
avatar
Jscentraltn
Admin

Posts : 703
Join date : 2013-01-19
Age : 39
Location : Cheatham county

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Toot on 2013-01-20, 6:50 pm

ballpark wrote: We usually do pretty well in N TN from Clipper type systems this time of year. Maybe we will have an better ideal after we get inside the 84hr window.
Agreed..and clippers can definately be the one of the most surprising types of storm system around here. I love a good clipper storm..they only seem to be around just a few weeks outta the year! That may have something to do with my infatuation with them...or it might just be all their cool names
"Alberta Clipper"
"Mantioba Mauler"
"Saskatchewan Screamer"

whiskey

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-01-20, 7:05 pm

I like anyway I can get it! From the south from the north bring it. I need to build just one snowman this year and sip on snowcream! drool

_________________
REMEMBER!!!!!! The day when man and dinasouar walked the earth together..... In the beginning things were good!
avatar
Jscentraltn
Admin

Posts : 703
Join date : 2013-01-19
Age : 39
Location : Cheatham county

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Toot on 2013-01-20, 8:02 pm

HPC has flights into the upper level energy of this thing for the next three days. They evidently think there is potential for a major snowstorm somewhere. Where being the keyword here..LOL!

Could the DGEX pull a coupe de gras? lol!

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-01-20, 9:07 pm

Toot wrote:HPC has flights into the upper level energy of this thing for the next three days. They evidently think there is potential for a major snowstorm somewhere. Where being the keyword here..LOL!

Could the DGEX pull a coupe de gras? lol!
It would be nice if the low dives further south and slams Tennessee. But I think kentucky/indi are the ones in line. We will see by wed/thur time frame pass out
avatar
Jscentraltn
Admin

Posts : 703
Join date : 2013-01-19
Age : 39
Location : Cheatham county

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-21, 6:53 am

Guys, we may have a legit threat here again. Guidance continues to trend colder. Even MRX agrees that mixed precip is likely thurs. Night b4 changing to rain fri. Then back to snow fri. Night into sat. This afd was written though before 6z, which was even colder than 0z. After this system, the Euro drops in some serious arctic air-colder than this shot coming later today, so I'm getting more optimistic about it for sure.

I might add, that 6z is kinda funny, but it doesn't bring in quite as much cold as the euro. Using phone, so can't post graphics. Interesting that the gfs, a model with a cold bias has been playing catch up to the euro lately.

Jed33
Admin

Posts : 930
Join date : 2011-12-09
Location : Morristown, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by John1122 on 2013-01-21, 7:35 am

The 06z shows a pretty big ice storm for East Tennessee from 40 north on Friday.

John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by John1122 on 2013-01-21, 7:42 am

The snowfall map shows several inches of snow but precip type maps suggest ice.


John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by John1122 on 2013-01-21, 7:51 am

Sounding 1 pm Friday.


John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by destair on 2013-01-21, 7:55 am

New here and just trying to learn a few things.
Where do yo look that tells you the precipitation will be ice?

destair
Member

Posts : 5
Join date : 2013-01-13

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by John1122 on 2013-01-21, 8:04 am

You can find precip type maps on instant weather maps site. They are suggesting sleet over much of East Tennessee, with some freezing rain that changes to snow.

On the sounding I posted you see the column above freezing just above 850mb. The surface temp is about -2c which is around 28. The column being that cold from 850 to the surface would suggest sleet.

John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by destair on 2013-01-21, 8:06 am

Thank you. I'm a complete amateur but very interested in learning how to interpret the soundings and models.

destair
Member

Posts : 5
Join date : 2013-01-13

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by ballpark on 2013-01-21, 8:28 am

It looks to me the 6z is showing the low futher south than the 0z run. I think it is a pretty big adjustment in the models. The 0z had it over NTN and the O6z has it over NAlabama about a 150 mile swing south. If pattern continues it will be interesting.

ballpark
Founding Member

Posts : 155
Join date : 2011-12-07
Location : White House

View user profile http://www.leaguelineup.com/mtnsa

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Toot on 2013-01-21, 8:38 am

John1122 wrote:Sounding 1 pm Friday.
yikes Sleetstorm


destair wrote:Thank you. I'm a complete amateur but very interested in learning how to interpret the soundings and models.
http://www.tnweatherspot.com/t95-how-to-read-a-skew-t-chart-sounding

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by destair on 2013-01-21, 9:02 am

Toot wrote:
John1122 wrote:Sounding 1 pm Friday.
yikes Sleetstorm


destair wrote:Thank you. I'm a complete amateur but very interested in learning how to interpret the soundings and models.
http://www.tnweatherspot.com/t95-how-to-read-a-skew-t-chart-sounding

This helps. Thanks.

destair
Member

Posts : 5
Join date : 2013-01-13

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by jmundie on 2013-01-21, 10:15 am

6z ensembles have some especially awesome looks.

jmundie
Winter Specialist

Posts : 743
Join date : 2011-12-19

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by ballpark on 2013-01-21, 1:10 pm

jmundie wrote:6z ensembles have some especially awesome looks.
The 12z shifted the low back North. What do the 12z ensembles show?

ballpark
Founding Member

Posts : 155
Join date : 2011-12-07
Location : White House

View user profile http://www.leaguelineup.com/mtnsa

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by jmundie on 2013-01-21, 1:42 pm

12z Euro is really really close to amazing. All of KY gets snow this run, except far northwest.


jmundie
Winter Specialist

Posts : 743
Join date : 2011-12-19

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-21, 2:17 pm

Yeah Mundie, that's really close for a large section of the state, esp. N half. NE TN gets in anyway, but I'm only about 50mi NE of the black line. Would think that that would be a rain to sleet to snow event for most, maybe sleet to snow for NE TN. Don't know though. I'd like to see the GFS come on board again with this, but the way it has been performing this winter, I wouldn't trust it at all, even within 2 days of the event. Euro is not much better, but at least it's a little better. We'll have to see what the NAM shows for the event, as it was very close to having this last event pegged from the get go.

Jed33
Admin

Posts : 930
Join date : 2011-12-09
Location : Morristown, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by ballpark on 2013-01-21, 2:20 pm

Euro bringing the snow futher south now. I think we going to be in the ball game on this one.

ballpark
Founding Member

Posts : 155
Join date : 2011-12-07
Location : White House

View user profile http://www.leaguelineup.com/mtnsa

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-01-21, 5:56 pm

Once again guys this is a Kentucky storm clipping ne Tennessee! I want it bad but just don't see it just yet! Maybe later models show up for us here in middle tn. I'am talking snow! club

_________________
REMEMBER!!!!!! The day when man and dinasouar walked the earth together..... In the beginning things were good!
avatar
Jscentraltn
Admin

Posts : 703
Join date : 2013-01-19
Age : 39
Location : Cheatham county

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Toot on 2013-01-21, 6:00 pm

Looks like a strong clipper system is now agreed upon by guidance for this coming weekend. The track still needs to be ironed down but I-40 and north may be in the ballgame here.

Graphics posted in the members section.


_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 15 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 8 ... 15  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum