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January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-01-21, 7:16 pm

Toot wrote:Looks like a strong clipper system is now agreed upon by guidance for this coming weekend. The track still needs to be ironed down but I-40 and north may be in the ballgame here.

Graphics posted in the members section.

Hey toot! Have not been here to long but where is the members section? Thanks
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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Toot on 2013-01-21, 7:31 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:
Hey toot! Have not been here to long but where is the members section? Thanks
http://www.tnweatherspot.com/f11-member-only-storm-graphics-data-etc

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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-01-21, 9:12 pm

Went back and looked at the gfs ensemble means for fri evening. looks like we could get some snow! Also the thing is the models are not seeing the low level artic air that will be in place. so it could turn out interesting anyways! Will have to wait for new data. nam is no good until 48 hrs before, gfs still needs a few days baby

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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-01-21, 9:38 pm

If the cold can hold the system will ride further south. I just don't know how far south and how cold it will stay! popcorn

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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by VFL on 2013-01-21, 9:46 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:Went back and looked at the gfs ensemble means for fri evening. looks like we could get some snow! Also the thing is the models are not seeing the low level artic air that will be in place. so it could turn out interesting anyways! Will have to wait for new data. nam is no good until 48 hrs before, gfs still needs a few days baby
Most of the time I'll agree but the NAM had a nice handle on the last system a week out.
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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-21, 9:50 pm

Thats the 6million dollar question. Lots of if's with this one. I hope it works out, but I'm still exhausted from last week. I don't have as much NRG this week, lol.

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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-01-21, 9:58 pm

True! It will be a close call. Looking at the NAM run it's still to far north. But we will see! GOING TO BED!

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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by John1122 on 2013-01-22, 4:45 am

The NAM is further south than previous runs. Getting close the the Euro track. I'd like to see it about 125 miles more S.

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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by John1122 on 2013-01-22, 5:33 am

06z gfs is very weak now. About .10-.25 falls over the area with East Tennessee looking like freezing rain.

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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by John1122 on 2013-01-22, 5:38 am


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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by John1122 on 2013-01-22, 6:04 am

HPC giving a zr bullseye on the plateau.


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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by skillsweather on 2013-01-22, 6:11 am

Wtf ice? Gosh why cant we just get snow man this is stupid 20 degrees and still rain..

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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by John1122 on 2013-01-22, 6:21 am

skillsweather wrote:Wtf ice? Gosh why cant we just get snow man this is stupid 20 degrees and still rain..

I wouldn't count on any solution til Wednesday when the storm moves out of the Pacific and starts getting sampled. JKL mentioned that in their AFD this morning.

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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by jmundie on 2013-01-22, 6:58 am

When you have a storm where energy is ejecting from the southwest, in the long range, go with the gfs ensembles.

When the storm is based in the northern stream, you go with the euro.

This is gonna be a close one - and with all the dry air around, ice is certainly a possibility.

Next weeks system also, surprise, is now being modeled much further south. SE ridge will need some time to recoup from the battering its received.

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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Toot on 2013-01-22, 8:30 am

John1122 wrote:

I wouldn't count on any solution til Wednesday when the storm moves out of the Pacific and starts getting sampled. JKL mentioned that in their AFD this morning.

Agreed..IMO this one continues to look like it could go even further south that what the euro is currenlty showing IMO

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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by VFL on 2013-01-22, 8:51 am

Is this not a over running event no matter how far south it goes until the system gets on our SE side?
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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Toot on 2013-01-22, 9:04 am

It will likely be an over running event either way you look at it due to a cold low level airmass. But how far north or south the stormcenter is will dictate precip type changeover or lack there of.

OHX Graphic


Lol..is graphic big enough? Maybe they're wanting to get the word out. I dont blame them..the freezing rain threat could be treacherous

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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by snowdog on 2013-01-22, 9:29 am

2 possible events in middleTN in one week? This is what happens when Snowdog gives the pattern his stamp of approval. whistle

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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by jmundie on 2013-01-22, 9:30 am

It isn't an exact analog - but similar for sure

0z euro at 96


jan 16 2003

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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-22, 9:59 am

One things for sure, dp's have crashed. 3-7 in middle and E TN. Even -2 in TRI. That alone argues for colder solutions. However, it could also argue for lighter amounts too, as it would take awhile to saturate. Granted, dp's prob. Won't be this low come Fri., but, this is a great place to start IMO.

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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by ballpark on 2013-01-22, 12:01 pm

The Euro seems to be the most consitant of the models on the storm so far. The 12z run ought to be interesting.

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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by jmundie on 2013-01-22, 1:41 pm

12z euro is good for all north and east of I24

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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by ballpark on 2013-01-22, 1:51 pm

12z Euro came through.

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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-22, 1:53 pm

Can't tell what it says guys. I'm guessing it is 2-4 for N middle and most of E TN?

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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-22, 2:17 pm

Yep, got an update from Raleigh Wx. Looks decent for E TN. Now will it hold, dunno, time will tell.

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Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

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