WRF cast
Satellite Loop
Current Watches
Current Snow Cover
Conus Radar
Regional Radar
Tennessee Radar
SE RADAR
Enlarge
24 hr Temp change
Current MDs
Regional Temps
Conus Temps
Current CPC NAO and forecast
Top posters
Toot (6644)
 
Stovepipe (4148)
 
Adam2014 (1424)
 
tennessee storm09 (1302)
 
Jed33 (930)
 
windstorm (891)
 
John1122 (885)
 
snowdog (855)
 
Homemommy (824)
 
WxFreak (812)
 


January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Page 4 of 15 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 9 ... 15  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by ballpark on 2013-01-22, 2:21 pm

Lets keep the trend going.

ballpark
Founding Member

Posts : 155
Join date : 2011-12-07
Location : White House

View user profile http://www.leaguelineup.com/mtnsa

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-22, 3:08 pm

HPC
Attachments
prb_24hicez_ge_01_2013012300f072_sm.gif You don't have permission to download attachments.(19 Kb) Downloaded 1 times
prb_24hsnow_ge01_2013012300f072_sm.gif You don't have permission to download attachments.(24 Kb) Downloaded 1 times

Jed33
Admin

Posts : 930
Join date : 2011-12-09
Location : Morristown, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by John1122 on 2013-01-22, 3:41 pm

Well I'm above 90% on the ice map and above 90% on the snow map.

John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by connerconner on 2013-01-22, 3:49 pm

Wow!

connerconner
Founding Member

Posts : 46
Join date : 2012-01-12

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-22, 4:04 pm

Yeah, looking like another event may be shaping up. I don't know though about downsloping on this one. John, Toot, would that be an issue for the valley in this kind of setup, if it occurred? Last week's storm had no downsloping issues at all N of I40, now, I know every storm is different, so I'm just curious about this one.

Jed33
Admin

Posts : 930
Join date : 2011-12-09
Location : Morristown, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by John1122 on 2013-01-22, 4:20 pm

Jed33 wrote:Yeah, looking like another event may be shaping up. I don't know though about downsloping on this one. John, Toot, would that be an issue for the valley in this kind of setup, if it occurred? Last week's storm had no downsloping issues at all N of I40, now, I know every storm is different, so I'm just curious about this one.

There are almost always some downsloping issues in the Valley of East Tennessee. The only way to avoid it is to have the precip moving SW to NE, straight up the valley. But in winter that will usually mean a warm nose is coming with it.

Last week actually did have some down slope effect but it was a very moisture laden and energetic system and still put down plenty of QPF.

Down slope doesn't mean dry, it just means a bit less QPF for the Valley vs the Plateau and Mountains. It shows up worse the further NE you go up the valley.

TRI averages 41 inches of rain per year. Knoxville 47. But Crossville and my area averages 55-60 inches per year. Gatlingburg averages around 55 inches too.

With the precip moving from the NW to SE you will get some downsloping off the Plateau but this system is dynamic enough to overcome it and give all of East Tennessee precip.

John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by John1122 on 2013-01-22, 4:38 pm

JKL is going with more snow but less QPF. Says their area will likely see a 1-3 inch snow.

John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-22, 4:41 pm

Ah, ok, makes since. I would have thought that tri would have less downsloping, due to it's higher elevation. But, the valley gets narrower and steeper the further N you go, where the mtn ranges almost come together.

Jed33
Admin

Posts : 930
Join date : 2011-12-09
Location : Morristown, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Toot on 2013-01-22, 5:13 pm

I would say 1-2 inches may be a good bet for unelevated areas I-40 and north. I'll post some graphics in the members section

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jed33 on 2013-01-22, 5:42 pm

Another from HPC, they seem to really like NE TN and esp. sw VA
Attachments
day3_psnow_gt_04.gif You don't have permission to download attachments.(18 Kb) Downloaded 5 times

Jed33
Admin

Posts : 930
Join date : 2011-12-09
Location : Morristown, TN

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by joereb1 on 2013-01-22, 8:33 pm

Hey Toot, I got 4" of snow last week and still have a good amount on the ground in the shady areas. I live just south of the river off Chapman. What are my chances for seeing a repeat?

_________________
Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition.

JoeReb. cold
avatar
joereb1
Founding Member

Posts : 76
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Corryton, TN.

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by John1122 on 2013-01-22, 8:39 pm

Most of the time South Knoxville isn't the place to be for Clipper type systems. A repeat of 4 inches is probably asking alot for anyone ouside the Smokies.

John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-01-22, 8:42 pm

just in from work! nice see the models still came south today .but for my area it still looks borderline. close to clarksville tn, looks to be sleet/ frz rain/ rain. maybe end up with some snow! anyway later models may bring it. mad

_________________
REMEMBER!!!!!! The day when man and dinasouar walked the earth together..... In the beginning things were good!
avatar
Jscentraltn
Admin

Posts : 703
Join date : 2013-01-19
Age : 39
Location : Cheatham county

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by joereb1 on 2013-01-22, 8:57 pm

Would 1 or 2 be more in line?

_________________
Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition.

JoeReb. cold
avatar
joereb1
Founding Member

Posts : 76
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Corryton, TN.

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Toot on 2013-01-22, 8:59 pm

joereb1 wrote:Hey Toot, I got 4" of snow last week and still have a good amount on the ground in the shady areas. I live just south of the river off Chapman. What are my chances for seeing a repeat?
What John said..its probably not going to happen. The further north you are the better chance you have at an inch or so. Clipper type systems are usually light on moisture and very fast moving. That said the freezing rain threat is the real story here..some of the latest stuff im seeing could make travel impossible

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-01-22, 9:18 pm

Toot wrote:
joereb1 wrote:Hey Toot, I got 4" of snow last week and still have a good amount on the ground in the shady areas. I live just south of the river off Chapman. What are my chances for seeing a repeat?
What John said..its probably not going to happen. The further north you are the better chance you have at an inch or so. Clipper type systems are usually light on moisture and very fast moving. That said the freezing rain threat is the real story here..some of the latest stuff im seeing could make travel impossible
Agreed toot! I'am to concerned about the frz rain. The last system gave my area a close call for some downed lines and limbs. Forecast for my area thur night calls for a low of 28 with sleet/frz rain uh oh
avatar
Jscentraltn
Admin

Posts : 703
Join date : 2013-01-19
Age : 39
Location : Cheatham county

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by ballpark on 2013-01-22, 9:50 pm

I can't remember getting a whole lot of Freezing rain out of Clipper systems that our fast moving and cold air pushing behind. Middle TN NWS was talking about two different systems coming through Wenesday through Thursday and another one on Friday . Our these two different types of systems?

ballpark
Founding Member

Posts : 155
Join date : 2011-12-07
Location : White House

View user profile http://www.leaguelineup.com/mtnsa

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-01-22, 9:58 pm

I think what it is we have a clipper and system coming in from the sw at the same time. They will merge and move east. Looking at the new NAM that just came out it still is colder and still further south the freezing layer still is at surface so it will be fez rain event!

_________________
REMEMBER!!!!!! The day when man and dinasouar walked the earth together..... In the beginning things were good!
avatar
Jscentraltn
Admin

Posts : 703
Join date : 2013-01-19
Age : 39
Location : Cheatham county

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by jmundie on 2013-01-22, 10:01 pm

I cannot stand it anymore. This is not a clipper. It's some sort of hybrid. I think the models are getting it generally right but are missing the southern energy. We have better data ingestion for the 0z runs - and i think the nam confirms were about to see a shift south/colder/wetter

jmundie
Winter Specialist

Posts : 743
Join date : 2011-12-19

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-01-22, 10:09 pm

What do you call them when they merge? I know that there is the energy coming in from the south! I hope your wetter means whiter for me! Thanks

_________________
REMEMBER!!!!!! The day when man and dinasouar walked the earth together..... In the beginning things were good!
avatar
Jscentraltn
Admin

Posts : 703
Join date : 2013-01-19
Age : 39
Location : Cheatham county

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Toot on 2013-01-22, 10:10 pm

Lol..the northern stream energy is clearly the dominant feature here. There isnt hardly any southern stream energy AT ALL..call it what you will but its 98% clipper being progged. Just because you have some precip gathering out of the south ahead of cold front doesnt make it something else

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by wxgeek on 2013-01-22, 10:17 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:What do you call them when they merge? I know that there is the energy coming in from the south! I hope your wetter means whiter for me! Thanks

clipper + slider = slipper or c'lider?

wxgeek
Member

Posts : 25
Join date : 2013-01-22
Location : Williamson Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-01-22, 10:21 pm

Thanks! lol!

_________________
REMEMBER!!!!!! The day when man and dinasouar walked the earth together..... In the beginning things were good!
avatar
Jscentraltn
Admin

Posts : 703
Join date : 2013-01-19
Age : 39
Location : Cheatham county

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-01-22, 11:27 pm

The new gfs run looks like a bust. The southern energy to far south and the clipper coming in is going more east than southeast! So it looks like for now we are left with a shower. Maybe better runs in the morning!

_________________
REMEMBER!!!!!! The day when man and dinasouar walked the earth together..... In the beginning things were good!
avatar
Jscentraltn
Admin

Posts : 703
Join date : 2013-01-19
Age : 39
Location : Cheatham county

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by John1122 on 2013-01-22, 11:57 pm

GFS continued it's drying trend. NAM finally lost it's warm/northern track and it puts out much more QPF.

HR 60 Radar.



HR 60 Temps.



HR 63 Temps.



HR 63 Radar.



HR 66 Temps.



HR 66 Radar.



Finally 24 hr precip ending at hr 66.


John1122
Winter Specialist

Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 24-25th Clipper/Ice Ice Baby

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 4 of 15 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 9 ... 15  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum