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Colder February ?

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Colder February ?

Post by windstorm on 2013-01-21, 11:57 pm

With February fast on our heels and most of this winter mild to warmer than normal. WSI thinks a shift in the jet stream will lead to a colder February with a ridge building out on the west coast. Anyone think this will happen ? Just saying it may be our last month for any good chance of snow. That is if we Don`t head into a dry spell with the southern jet shutting down. But there always March and anything can happen in that month because going from winter to spring and cold and warm air fighting it out.
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Re: Colder February ?

Post by skillsweather on 2013-01-22, 12:05 am

Well I heard Gfs has us at 70 on Feb 1.

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Re: Colder February ?

Post by VFL on 2013-01-22, 8:11 am

skillsweather wrote:Well I heard Gfs has us at 70 on Feb 1.

Oh sweet Baby Jesus.
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Re: Colder February ?

Post by windstorm on 2013-01-23, 9:03 am

The GFS was showing cold weather in the first week of Feb but now it's gone. The GFS is a Indian giver. Gives you something then take it back. Where my gun ? Next time it does it i will shot my PC screen. ( It's the Meds folks ) retard
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Re: Colder February ?

Post by windstorm on 2013-01-31, 10:27 am

WSI as i posted showed in the month of Feb a blocking high on the west coast but looking at some of the model runs all the way out to mid month don't agree. It keeps loading up cold air in the west with more of a blocking high over in our area. Yes it does show a few cold days over in our area from time to time. But i think the whole team of people over at WSI are on dope. First few days of feb show some cold and one model try to bring cold again around mid month. But when you have to start waitng 1 to 2 weeks in the month of Feb it's not looking so great. Is this year better than last year ? Yes in that there were/or more colder days but for most of Tennessee it looks to be another heart breaker winter. Hope am wrong. But there has been to much SW warm air hanging over us for most of the winter. Hope it not true what i am writing. I know when we get 1 to two weeks out on models we are talking in terms of never, never land and things can change. As i wrote in my winter forecast a few months ago, my thinking was where am at we would be in the battle zone between warm/cold and so far it's been that way down here. Just my 2 cent worth. wacko Have a good day.
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Re: Colder February ?

Post by windstorm on 2013-01-31, 11:45 am

WSI: Winter to Finish with a Bang Across Northern US

Very Cold February Expected Many Northern Locales, Followed by Quick Return to Above-Normal Temperatures as Spring Emerges

Andover, MA, January 22, 2013 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects the February-April period to be colder than normal across much of the northern half of the US. Above-normal temperatures will be common across the southern US, especially in the Southwest. The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal (1981-2010).

“The first half of winter has been quite mild across the eastern half of the US, while the western US has suffered through a cold winter so far,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, WSI Chief Meteorologist. “However, the pattern has recently changed to allow much colder temperatures to plague the eastern US for much of the back half of winter. A significantly weakened polar vortex will allow bitterly cold Arctic air to spread southward across the north-central and much of the eastern US during February. By March, however, most of the objective forecasting guidance suggests that above-normal temperatures will return to the eastern US, likely persisting through much of the spring. The impacts from the multi-year drought across the Plains will also likely favor an early emergence of spring across much of the central and eastern US, especially if the remainder of winter is fairly dry in these regions as we currently expect.”

In February, WSI sees the monthly breakdown as:
Northeast* – Colder than normal
Southeast* – Colder than normal
N Central * – Much colder than normal
S Central* – Colder than normal, with the exception of Texas
Northwest* – Colder than normal
Southwest* – Warmer than normal

According to Chris Kostas, Senior Power and Gas Analyst at ESAI, “In February, colder-than-normal temperatures and above-average heating demand in the Midwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic regions will boost aggregate North American natural gas demand and will help to support gas prices. The below-normal temperatures in these key gas demand regions will more than offset the below-normal heating demand associated with mild temperatures in the Southwest and California. Typically, Mid-Atlantic gas basis prices would surge under these circumstances, but with new shale gas supplies growing steadily in Pennsylvania, Tetco M3 gas prices should only experience modest price strength relative to Henry Hub during the month. The above-normal aggregate heating demand should help to rebalance inventories and which began the winter heating season at a record high level. While the colder-than-normal temperatures expected in the Midwest will increase power and gas demand in the region, the upside to gas prices may be limited. Coal-fired generation that has been sidelined due to poor economics should find some breathing room to increase run rates in February as gas demand for power competes with demand for heating and strengthens gas prices marginally. As coal-fired generators increase output levels during the coldest days their increased generation should begin to relieve the need for gas for power generation. This should act as a soft ceiling for power and gas prices in the Mid-West (i.e. PJM and MISO). In New England and parts of New York, however, gas and power prices are likely to experience higher price volatility and sharp price increases in February due to pipeline constraints during the coldest days. Power and gas prices in Texas and California are expected to be soft due in February due to lower weather-related demand in those regions.”

In March, WSI forecasts:
Northeast – Warmer than normal
Southeast – Warmer than normal
N Central – Warmer than normal
S Central – Warmer than normal
Northwest – Colder than normal
Southwest – Warmer than normal, with exception of coastal California

“With mild March temperatures expected over most of the country (except California and the Northwest), aggregate North American gas demand should finish the winter heating season very soft. This will likely soften natural gas prices from the expected price increase in February. With natural gas production expected to remain strong through the winter, a mild March could easily leave natural gas inventories above 2,000 Bcf again this year. ESAI is currently forecasting an end-of-season inventory level of 2,150 Bcf, which is moderately higher than market consensus. Soft heating demand and below-normal electrical loads in March increase the downside risk profile for power and gas prices in ERCOT, MISO, PJM, New York and New England. However, implied market heat rates could firm in these regions as marginal coal units begin to be priced out of the market again on lower gas prices and poor economics,” Kostas noted.

In April, WSI forecasts:
Northeast – Warmer than normal
Southeast – Warmer than normal
N Central – Warmer than normal
S Central – Warmer than normal
Northwest – Colder than normal
Southwest – Warmer than normal, with exception of coastal California

“While weather-related demand is in April is low, with mild temperatures expected for nearly the entire country (except the Northwest and parts of California), aggregate North American gas demand should begin the spring very soft. The much warmer-than-normal temperatures expected in parts of Texas, however, could boost early cooling demand in ERCOT. With gas demand low in March and April and robust inventories expected to begin the injection season we believe natural gas prices are likely to be soft and stable in April. Henry Hub gas price volatility is likely to be relatively low in April as well while implied market heat rates are likely to firm as generation maintenance increases throughout the month,” Kostas added.

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Re: Colder February ?

Post by windstorm on 2013-01-31, 5:59 pm

Latest update from NOAA say a warm Feb.. lapat
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Re: Colder February ?

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-02-01, 8:14 pm

Looking at the NAO it stays pos to net though first half feb. so any cold to come and stay just isn't going to happen. Just like most of winter already cold for 2 days then 50 so who knows? Maybe middle month only shot! Then spring and severe storms!

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Re: Colder February ?

Post by windstorm on 2013-02-02, 3:26 pm

I am not a fan of severe storms since i live in a mobile home. Many nights when bad weather is forecast i stay up until the danger has passed. worry
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