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Valentines Day snow

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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by Jed33 on 2013-02-09, 5:19 pm

Toot's right Tom. But, even if it was the case, and it was cold air chasing the precip, we just had a 5in event in Jan. Thanks to a Cold core ull that caught up with the precip. I can only imagine what would have happened if there was more blocking and the source of the cold just to our North had have been just a little colder. Lol, had it been a lot colder, the new england blizzard we just saw would have looked like a dusting compared to what we would have had, lol.

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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-02-09, 7:07 pm

THe GFS and NAM both look pretty good for us in middle tn. This one my turn out really decent for us! Each run looks stronger and colder! One storm at a time. Think snow!!!!!! sneaky

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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by Toot on 2013-02-09, 7:28 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:THe GFS and NAM both look pretty good for us in middle tn. This one my turn out really decent for us! Each run looks stronger and colder! One storm at a time. Think snow!!!!!! sneaky
I have always said this was a Nashvegas storm. The mean track is perfect for them!

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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-02-09, 7:37 pm

Yeah! I can't wait to get some good pics if it pans out! I live about 30 miles nw of nashvegas! This has the potential to lay a little covering. Which will be the first for me! Also GFS looked good for ne Tennessee as well!! popcorn

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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by weathertree4u on 2013-02-09, 8:38 pm

Jscentraltn wrote:Yeah! I can't wait to get some good pics if it pans out! I live about 30 miles nw of nashvegas! This has the potential to lay a little covering. Which will be the first for me! Also GFS looked good for ne Tennessee as well!! popcorn

Good too hear, northeast of Nashvegas here; would be great to have some snow but really want one of those from childhood, the late 1970's, the plowable kind that you have huge snowpiles in parking lots for days after the snow melts

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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by ballpark on 2013-02-09, 11:06 pm

00z gfs looks like about 2-3 inchs of Heavy Wet Snow for our area weather Tree.

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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by Toot on 2013-02-09, 11:58 pm

0z GFS has a stronger and much more organized Miller A!




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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by Clarksville Snowman on 2013-02-10, 12:04 am

Sitting 50 nw of nashville in mont county, got fingers crossed. Would love a heavy wet flake snow. popcorn

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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-10, 12:28 am

It's gonna be very borderline on temps the way it's looking now. Especially unelevated and south of 40.

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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-10, 12:37 am

The NAM looks like it's wavering towards a lakes cutter. Which is where the GFS has this system for a while a few days ago. It'd be a NW Tennessee/W-Kentucky storm per the NAM

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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by Toot on 2013-02-10, 12:42 am

John1122 wrote:It's gonna be very borderline on temps the way it's looking now. Especially unelevated and south of 40.

Agreed on low level temps...I think it will play out alot like the Jan 17 system did.. although probably not in the same areas. Surface temps are marginal unless you're elevated but its gonna be a very dynamic system and if you get under the deform band I think it will be plenty dynamic enough to cool the column all the way down to the surface.

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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by Toot on 2013-02-10, 1:45 am

Euro still saying "no way Jose" Lol...its hard for me to believe it with the op GFS having such strong support from its ensembles and the NAM

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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by Toot on 2013-02-10, 1:53 am

0z ensembles holding strong!


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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by Toot on 2013-02-10, 2:35 am

Up late burning the midnight oil making a forecast graphic and looking at those awesome ensembles. Some of them are pass out


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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-02-10, 4:15 am

I agree Toot. The GFS has consistently been showing anywhere from 1 to 4 inches for me and the NAM , even though not usually reliable at this range, shows the same thing. Either the Euro is on crack or it is taking the others to school.

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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-02-10, 6:41 am

MEG coming on board.

Code:
TUESDAY NIGHT STILL HOLDS A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW... AS A COMPACT
UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THIS SYSTEM... BUT IT SHOULD BE EFFICIENT AT
CONVERTING MOISTURE TO PRECIPITATION...GIVEN THE STEEP SATURATED
290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THERMAL PROFILES BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE OVER NORTHEAST AR TUESDAY EVENING... WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. NAM SHOWS NORTHEAST AR THROUGH WEST
TN IN A DEFORMATION ZONE AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF PRECIP CHANGEOVER AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES... 2 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR...ALBEIT WITH SOME MELTING. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON SUBTLE DETAILS THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT 72 TO
84 HOURS. AT THIS TIME...OFFICIAL SNOW FORECAST GRIDS CALL FOR 1
ACCUMULATIONS FROM EASTERN AR THROUGH NORTHWEST TN.

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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by Toot on 2013-02-10, 9:54 am

The NAM is much stronger than other models with the 500mb energy! It closes an upper level low off back near Texas and therefore heights become more positively amped out in front of the ULL and it cuts through the state..the 12z NAM cuts even further west over top Bruce's house Surprised

That said its the NAM in its bad range so I dont give it much weight but we all know it can pull out a coup de gras every once in a while. If its correct most of the state will not see any snow with this system.



HOWEVER.. if the GFS package is correct then..

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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-02-10, 10:01 am

Yeah! Not buying the NAM the 12z run is even further west. For now the GFS I will take it has been consistent so far with this storm. So bring donkey kong!!! Also the EURO rips this one apart! So who knows. Think snow!!!!!!!!! rock on

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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by Toot on 2013-02-10, 12:49 pm

Its prob a little too early for this and take these with a HUGE grain of salt as this will no doubt change...but while I'm waiting for the 12z EURO here is some fun with SREF 3 hr maximum snowfall amounts




DW that 3-6 inch bullseye is awful close to your backyard!! Razz


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Then East TN

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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-02-10, 2:23 pm

Hey toot! Out right now using phone can't look at any model data. What are saying about Nashville and Clarksville area for poss snow amounts? Thanks!

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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by Toot on 2013-02-10, 3:29 pm

That was SREF images but something happened to the server that was hosting them

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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by Toot on 2013-02-10, 3:47 pm

The 18zNAM comes in with a completely different track..lol boy this one is a forecasters nightmare yikes

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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by tom23 on 2013-02-10, 3:57 pm

What did the 18z Nam do toot?

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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-02-10, 4:00 pm

Toot!! What's the deal with the models? They suck! Just seen the new run of the NAM now it is shifting back east. I'm sure the GFS comes in further west! I love it... bs this will be a now cast situation!

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Re: Valentines Day snow

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-02-10, 4:01 pm

tom23 wrote:What did the 18z Nam do toot?
it came in with a more northern track... best snows in illinois northern kentucky

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Re: Valentines Day snow

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