Valentines Day snow
+24
etnvolman
pippinm
Snowflake
etnwx
destair
ballpark
Dyersburg Weather
Mrgolf
windstorm
godzilla
Neals
secleveland
Grandpa Nasty
Jed33
LoganMulti12
snowdog
John1122
SEMonroeWx
Reb
tom23
jmundie
tennessee storm09
Jscentraltn
Toot
28 posters
Page 7 of 8
Page 7 of 8 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Re: Valentines Day snow
Toot's right Tom. But, even if it was the case, and it was cold air chasing the precip, we just had a 5in event in Jan. Thanks to a Cold core ull that caught up with the precip. I can only imagine what would have happened if there was more blocking and the source of the cold just to our North had have been just a little colder. Lol, had it been a lot colder, the new england blizzard we just saw would have looked like a dusting compared to what we would have had, lol.
Jed33- Admin
- Posts : 930
Join date : 2011-12-09
Location : Morristown, TN
Re: Valentines Day snow
THe GFS and NAM both look pretty good for us in middle tn. This one my turn out really decent for us! Each run looks stronger and colder! One storm at a time. Think snow!!!!!!
Jscentraltn- Admin
- Posts : 703
Join date : 2013-01-19
Age : 45
Location : Cheatham county
Re: Valentines Day snow
I have always said this was a Nashvegas storm. The mean track is perfect for them!Jscentraltn wrote:THe GFS and NAM both look pretty good for us in middle tn. This one my turn out really decent for us! Each run looks stronger and colder! One storm at a time. Think snow!!!!!!
Re: Valentines Day snow
Yeah! I can't wait to get some good pics if it pans out! I live about 30 miles nw of nashvegas! This has the potential to lay a little covering. Which will be the first for me! Also GFS looked good for ne Tennessee as well!!
Jscentraltn- Admin
- Posts : 703
Join date : 2013-01-19
Age : 45
Location : Cheatham county
Re: Valentines Day snow
Jscentraltn wrote:Yeah! I can't wait to get some good pics if it pans out! I live about 30 miles nw of nashvegas! This has the potential to lay a little covering. Which will be the first for me! Also GFS looked good for ne Tennessee as well!!
Good too hear, northeast of Nashvegas here; would be great to have some snow but really want one of those from childhood, the late 1970's, the plowable kind that you have huge snowpiles in parking lots for days after the snow melts
weathertree4u- Member
- Posts : 14
Join date : 2013-02-08
Age : 52
Location : Cottontown TN
Re: Valentines Day snow
00z gfs looks like about 2-3 inchs of Heavy Wet Snow for our area weather Tree.
Re: Valentines Day snow
Sitting 50 nw of nashville in mont county, got fingers crossed. Would love a heavy wet flake snow.
Clarksville Snowman- Member
- Posts : 35
Join date : 2012-12-14
Re: Valentines Day snow
It's gonna be very borderline on temps the way it's looking now. Especially unelevated and south of 40.
John1122- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co
Re: Valentines Day snow
The NAM looks like it's wavering towards a lakes cutter. Which is where the GFS has this system for a while a few days ago. It'd be a NW Tennessee/W-Kentucky storm per the NAM
John1122- Winter Specialist
- Posts : 885
Join date : 2011-12-06
Location : Campbell Co
Re: Valentines Day snow
John1122 wrote:It's gonna be very borderline on temps the way it's looking now. Especially unelevated and south of 40.
Agreed on low level temps...I think it will play out alot like the Jan 17 system did.. although probably not in the same areas. Surface temps are marginal unless you're elevated but its gonna be a very dynamic system and if you get under the deform band I think it will be plenty dynamic enough to cool the column all the way down to the surface.
Re: Valentines Day snow
Euro still saying "no way Jose" Lol...its hard for me to believe it with the op GFS having such strong support from its ensembles and the NAM
Re: Valentines Day snow
Up late burning the midnight oil making a forecast graphic and looking at those awesome ensembles. Some of them are
Re: Valentines Day snow
I agree Toot. The GFS has consistently been showing anywhere from 1 to 4 inches for me and the NAM , even though not usually reliable at this range, shows the same thing. Either the Euro is on crack or it is taking the others to school.
Dyersburg Weather- Banned
- Posts : 342
Join date : 2011-12-25
Age : 54
Location : Dyersburg , TN
Re: Valentines Day snow
MEG coming on board.
- Code:
TUESDAY NIGHT STILL HOLDS A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW... AS A COMPACT
UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THIS SYSTEM... BUT IT SHOULD BE EFFICIENT AT
CONVERTING MOISTURE TO PRECIPITATION...GIVEN THE STEEP SATURATED
290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THERMAL PROFILES BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE OVER NORTHEAST AR TUESDAY EVENING... WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. NAM SHOWS NORTHEAST AR THROUGH WEST
TN IN A DEFORMATION ZONE AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF PRECIP CHANGEOVER AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES... 2 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR...ALBEIT WITH SOME MELTING. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON SUBTLE DETAILS THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT 72 TO
84 HOURS. AT THIS TIME...OFFICIAL SNOW FORECAST GRIDS CALL FOR 1
ACCUMULATIONS FROM EASTERN AR THROUGH NORTHWEST TN.
Dyersburg Weather- Banned
- Posts : 342
Join date : 2011-12-25
Age : 54
Location : Dyersburg , TN
Re: Valentines Day snow
The NAM is much stronger than other models with the 500mb energy! It closes an upper level low off back near Texas and therefore heights become more positively amped out in front of the ULL and it cuts through the state..the 12z NAM cuts even further west over top Bruce's house
That said its the NAM in its bad range so I dont give it much weight but we all know it can pull out a coup de gras every once in a while. If its correct most of the state will not see any snow with this system.
HOWEVER.. if the GFS package is correct then..
That said its the NAM in its bad range so I dont give it much weight but we all know it can pull out a coup de gras every once in a while. If its correct most of the state will not see any snow with this system.
HOWEVER.. if the GFS package is correct then..
Re: Valentines Day snow
Yeah! Not buying the NAM the 12z run is even further west. For now the GFS I will take it has been consistent so far with this storm. So bring donkey kong!!! Also the EURO rips this one apart! So who knows. Think snow!!!!!!!!!
Jscentraltn- Admin
- Posts : 703
Join date : 2013-01-19
Age : 45
Location : Cheatham county
Re: Valentines Day snow
Its prob a little too early for this and take these with a HUGE grain of salt as this will no doubt change...but while I'm waiting for the 12z EURO here is some fun with SREF 3 hr maximum snowfall amounts
DW that 3-6 inch bullseye is awful close to your backyard!!
Clarksville/Nashville area
Then East TN
DW that 3-6 inch bullseye is awful close to your backyard!!
Clarksville/Nashville area
Then East TN
Re: Valentines Day snow
Hey toot! Out right now using phone can't look at any model data. What are saying about Nashville and Clarksville area for poss snow amounts? Thanks!
Jscentraltn- Admin
- Posts : 703
Join date : 2013-01-19
Age : 45
Location : Cheatham county
Re: Valentines Day snow
That was SREF images but something happened to the server that was hosting them
Re: Valentines Day snow
The 18zNAM comes in with a completely different track..lol boy this one is a forecasters nightmare
Re: Valentines Day snow
What did the 18z Nam do toot?
tom23- Founding Member
- Posts : 298
Join date : 2012-07-06
Age : 30
Location : Jefferson City, TN
Re: Valentines Day snow
Toot!! What's the deal with the models? They suck! Just seen the new run of the NAM now it is shifting back east. I'm sure the GFS comes in further west! I love it... this will be a now cast situation!
Jscentraltn- Admin
- Posts : 703
Join date : 2013-01-19
Age : 45
Location : Cheatham county
Re: Valentines Day snow
it came in with a more northern track... best snows in illinois northern kentuckytom23 wrote:What did the 18z Nam do toot?
tennessee storm09- Severe Wx Specialist
- Posts : 1304
Join date : 2011-12-05
Age : 61
Location : jackson,tennessee(home of 3 ef4 tornadoes since 1999)
Page 7 of 8 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Similar topics
» Introduce yourself
» Possible 25-26 snow
» March 5-6th Winter Storm
» Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26
» First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16
» Possible 25-26 snow
» March 5-6th Winter Storm
» Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26
» First accumulating snow possible Nov 13-16
Page 7 of 8
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum