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Presidents Day System

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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by Toot on 2013-02-11, 10:41 pm

I think the day of not paying the NAM any attention when it disagrees with the euro and gfs is over! It has took both those models to the woodshed at least three times this winter. Im hugging the NAM the rest of winter..LOL

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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by Toot on 2013-02-11, 11:04 pm

GFS out to hr 96..looks like this run the trough digging better than last

This run sucks!

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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-02-11, 11:15 pm

Toot wrote:GFS out to hr 96..looks like this run the trough digging better than last

This run sucks!
you aint shiting it does... to much northern stream, never phases

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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-11, 11:19 pm

I'm not worried about it til after V-Day. It's gonna effect this one quite a bit.

But I won't be a bit surprised if neither pan out at all and we get the worst, cold rain with one, very cold and dry with the other.

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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by Clarksville Snowman on 2013-02-11, 11:42 pm

I need help understanding all this northern stream shunting things. But when I look at the temps forecast there is nothing cold about it at all. The northern stream hasn't shunted nothing all year, I don't buy it gettin that cold.

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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by ballpark on 2013-02-12, 12:04 am

Euro is most accurate model anyway.


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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by Toot on 2013-02-12, 12:12 am

Clarksville Snowman wrote:I need help understanding all this northern stream shunting things. But when I look at the temps forecast there is nothing cold about it at all. The northern stream hasn't shunted nothing all year, I don't buy it gettin that cold.
Im not sure exactly what you are referring to but I am under the impression that you think it has to be a certain temperature to suppress precipitation to our south and that is not the case. You dont look at temperature graphics to pick out suppressed flow..you do that with upper air graphics.




Meanwhile the CMC says congrats to Chicago as it takes the low through west TN then explodes it and then proceeds to cut it off..LOL lmao

Might even be a severe thunderstorm here in east TN
lol!

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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-12, 12:17 am

Clarksville Snowman wrote:I need help understanding all this northern stream shunting things. But when I look at the temps forecast there is nothing cold about it at all. The northern stream hasn't shunted nothing all year, I don't buy it gettin that cold.

Basically the Southern Stream carries the potential storm, the Northern stream carries a bit of energy and cold air. When they phase, boom. When one dominates, things get moved. A dominant northern stream will push the storm track way down towards Cuba sometimes and we'll have highs in the 20s and lows in the 10s but generally dry weather.

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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by Toot on 2013-02-12, 12:25 am

Wait..its not over with the CMC! After a hell of a snowstorm in the mid west.. this thing intensifies again and rockets off to the east as it starts bombing out and creates one hell of a fetch from the lakes




Down to 974 MB by the time it gets to maine and still fetching down into neast TN


cheers

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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by orangeblood1985 on 2013-02-12, 12:38 am

Toot....can u interpret the nogaps for me? Looks like a hell of a storm

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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-12, 12:53 am

orangeblood1985 wrote:Toot....can u interpret the nogaps for me? Looks like a hell of a storm

The NOGAPS is probably the worst major model that isn't the JMA. I never even look at it for the most part. But it's showing pretty much 2-4 inches across the state.

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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by Toot on 2013-02-12, 1:05 am

I would say amounts would be more than that just looking at H5..this thing is sick! Surface graphics really dont match up with this pass out



I wouldnt have even looked at it but it was brought up in this topic so I had to. lmao Its an example of almost perfect phasing...its what I want to see the euro show here in a few! As John said the NOGAPS model is horrid tho..it ranks right there with the DGEX/JMA

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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-12, 2:04 am

Euro is still saying nothing.

All other models are showing a storm. There is a big spread in the 00z GFS ens, but 7 of 11 I can currently see show accumulating snow pretty wide spread across Tennessee. Some show very heavy snow on us, very heavy snow NW of us and very heavy snow NE of us.

Here are the best of the runs for Tennessee.













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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by Reb on 2013-02-12, 2:58 am

There will be a storm in my opinion...it all comes down to when it phases whether we will see snow or not.

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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by tom23 on 2013-02-12, 7:49 am

Mrx says absolutely nothing to see here, move along

I'm going to go with this call. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I think that most of East Tn will see between 1-4, 2-5 inches.

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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by Jed33 on 2013-02-12, 8:12 am

Wow Tom, thats very bold! As much as i'd like you to be right, I don't see more than a few flurries unless a wave developes along the arctic front. We wouldn't know anyway about features like that this far out, but the modeling is so bad right now, that who is to say we even get a strong cold shot. One thing that is sorely missing is data from the Pacific. It is one (not the only)reason that models have been so wishy washy all season. We definitely need to invest in better technology for that area! I'm about ready to call it an end to winter. I'm happy with my 8.5in this year, in an otherwise terrible year for winter weather lovers. This snow, or any other b4 spring is just the icing on the cake for me

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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by Toot on 2013-02-12, 8:24 am

Yeah it would be nice if everything was a "perfect forecast world" like the local news and Tom seem to think. Unfortunately this looks like an all or nothing situation..."all" being a MAJOR winter storm that dumps 6+ inches of snow on most everyone in east TN or "nothing" wich means exactly what it says

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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by tom23 on 2013-02-12, 8:34 am

Toot wrote:Yeah it would be nice if everything was a "perfect forecast world" like the local news and Tom seem to think. Unfortunately this looks like an all or nothing situation..."all" being a MAJOR winter storm that dumps 6+ inches of snow on most everyone in east TN or "nothing" wich means exactly what it says

If you're calling me out, then I'm definitely all in on a debate here. What suggests to you that I think this is a perfect forecast world?? I have always mentioned variables to a forecast. I have never, ever said that a forecast will definitely happen. So enlighten me Toot.

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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by Clarksville Snowman on 2013-02-12, 8:43 am

John1122 wrote:
Clarksville Snowman wrote:I need help understanding all this northern stream shunting things. But when I look at the temps forecast there is nothing cold about it at all. The northern stream hasn't shunted nothing all year, I don't buy it gettin that cold.

Basically the Southern Stream carries the potential storm, the Northern stream carries a bit of energy and cold air. When they phase, boom. When one dominates, things get moved. A dominant northern stream will push the storm track way down towards Cuba sometimes and we'll have highs in the 20s and lows in the 10s but generally dry weather.
What I meant is I don't see how the northern stream is going to overwhelm the pattern when you look at temps that are forecast. We haven't seen a dominant northern stream all year, and I don't see where this cold supression is coming from that's going to overwhelm the pattern.

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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by Toot on 2013-02-12, 8:53 am

Tom...im not calling you out. I just dont see the toom for the light accums with this event. It either phases and crushes east tn or it misses us completely. Clarksville...it doesnt take extreme cold to cause suppression! You must have missed my response to you

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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by Clarksville Snowman on 2013-02-12, 10:00 am

Toot wrote:Tom...im not calling you out. I just dont see the toom for the light accums with this event. It either phases and crushes east tn or it misses us completely. Clarksville...it doesnt take extreme cold to cause suppression! You must have missed my response to you
I'm sure your right, it just amazes me of what a finicy area middle tn has become. We get some cold it supresses and when we get moisture it isn't cold enough, our area has been screw zone all year. It just seems like there is always something.

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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by VFL on 2013-02-12, 10:11 am

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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by juju on 2013-02-12, 12:02 pm

pass out

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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by Toot on 2013-02-12, 2:59 pm



Last edited by Toot on 2013-02-12, 5:05 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Presidents Day System

Post by etnvolman on 2013-02-12, 3:18 pm

what toot ?? no storm now ?? ots ???

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Re: Presidents Day System

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