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Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by ballpark on 2013-02-26, 8:58 pm

Wed, Feb 27
Sprinkles late. Cloudy. Chilly. 42°F 37°F 18 mph / WSW 63% 33°F Minimal 23% <0.01"
Thu, Feb 28
Snow changing to rain. Overcast. Chilly. 40°F 34°F 12 mph / WNW 67% 33°F Minimal 25% <0.01"
Fri, Mar 1
Light icy mix late. Overcast. Chilly. 42°F 33°F 10 mph / NW 61% 35°F Minimal 52% 0.06"
Sat, Mar 2
Light snow. Overcast. Chilly. 38°F 30°F 11 mph / NNW 61% 30°F Minimal 66% 4.00"
Sun, Mar 3
Decreasing cloudiness. Chilly. 38°F 26°F 9 mph / NW 49% 30°F Low 33%
Mon, Mar 4
More sun than clouds. Cool. 47°F 26°F 10 mph / E 37% 40°F Low 11%
Tue, Mar 5
Sprinkles late. Increasing cloudiness. Cool. 49°F 38°F 14 mph / W 52% 42°F Low 39% 0.15"
Wed, Mar 6
Mostly sunny. Cool. 46°F 32°F 11 mph / N 80% 40°F Low 10%
Thu, Mar 7
High level clouds. Cool. 57°F 32°F 8 mph / SE 75% 55°F Low 0%
Fri, Mar 8
More sun than clouds. Cool. 59°F 38°F 6 mph / SSW 75% 58°F Low 0%
Sat, Mar 9
Showers late. Mostly cloudy. Cool. 56°F 36°F 12 mph / N 84% 53°F Minimal 55% 0.18"
Sun, Mar 10
Light rain early. More sun than clouds. Cool. 52°F 30°F 12 mph / N 75% 48°F Low 60% 3.09"
Mon, Mar 11
More sun than clouds. Cool. 53°F 33°F 13 mph / WNW 73% 49°F Low 10%
Tue, Mar 12
Mostly cloudy. Cool. 54°F 31°F 7 mph / SSE 66% 52°F Low 5%
Wed, Mar 13
Showers late. Cloudy. Cool. 57°F 36°F 6 mph / SW 81% 57°F Minimal 50% 0.15"
They have me 4 inches of Snow Sat LOL

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by Snowflake on 2013-02-26, 9:01 pm

Where did this forecast come from, Ballpark? Is White House in the northwestern part of the State?
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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by ballpark on 2013-02-26, 9:09 pm

I live in North Central TN off I 65 about 15 miles from the ky Border.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by ballpark on 2013-02-27, 11:32 am


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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by ballpark on 2013-02-27, 11:33 am

Looks like a solid 1-2 inches of snow for most of TN.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by ballpark on 2013-02-27, 2:03 pm

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=OHX

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-27, 3:04 pm

From the GSP update. Sounds like the Euro might be okay for East TN at least with the closed low near Oak Ridge.

THE NEW ECMWF HAS A SMALL CLOSED FEATURE AT
12Z OVER OAK RIDGE TN THEN HAS AN OPEN WAVE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF
THE EVOLUTION. THE 850-500MB LAPSE RATE IS RATHER NOTABLE WITH THE
GFS AS IT SHOWS INTENSIFICATION AS THE LOW MOVES EAST HAVING 6.55
C/KM OVER FRANKLIN NC AT 12Z SATURDAY AND A BROAD SW-NE CENTER OF
7.0 C/KM AT 18Z SAT. THIS BECOMES 7.2C/KM AT 00Z SUNDAY OVER
GREENSBORO. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS INTENSIFYING LAPSE RATES BUT CARRIES
THE LOBE FARTHER SOUTH FROM NORTH GEORGIA AT 12Z SAT TO UPSTATE SC
IN THE PM HOURS. A SIMILAR OCCURRENCE HAPPENED BACK ON FEB 16 WHEN
WE HAD MANY REPORTS OF THUNDER SNOW.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-02-27, 3:07 pm

I'll take what the RPM is showing

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-27, 3:11 pm

This part of their update is also interesting, a strong system tracking just East of Western NC CWA should mean good news here.

AFTER A WEEKEND WITH TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA
MONDAY PROVIDING TEMPS ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A LOW WILL
BE CROSSING ARKANSAS AT 12Z TUESDAY ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS LOW
FEATURE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS ON TUESDAY STILL FORECAST
TO BE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEWEST ECMWF IS TRENDING
STRONGER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW SHARPLY DEEPENING THE LOW AS
IT TRACKS JUST EAST OF OUR AREA IN MID WEEK.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by OakRidgeWeatherGuy on 2013-02-27, 3:50 pm

John1122 wrote:From the GSP update. Sounds like the Euro might be okay for East TN at least with the closed low near Oak Ridge.

THE NEW ECMWF HAS A SMALL CLOSED FEATURE AT
12Z OVER OAK RIDGE TN THEN HAS AN OPEN WAVE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF
THE EVOLUTION. THE 850-500MB LAPSE RATE IS RATHER NOTABLE WITH THE
GFS AS IT SHOWS INTENSIFICATION AS THE LOW MOVES EAST HAVING 6.55
C/KM OVER FRANKLIN NC AT 12Z SATURDAY AND A BROAD SW-NE CENTER OF
7.0 C/KM AT 18Z SAT. THIS BECOMES 7.2C/KM AT 00Z SUNDAY OVER
GREENSBORO. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS INTENSIFYING LAPSE RATES BUT CARRIES
THE LOBE FARTHER SOUTH FROM NORTH GEORGIA AT 12Z SAT TO UPSTATE SC
IN THE PM HOURS. A SIMILAR OCCURRENCE HAPPENED BACK ON FEB 16 WHEN
WE HAD MANY REPORTS OF THUNDER SNOW.
Hey John..I live here in Oak Ridge..Would this be a good thing or bad thing for Oak Ridge..Snow wise because I am wanting to see some snow!

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by Reb on 2013-02-27, 3:59 pm

John, depends on how east they are talking...it could be a carolina special. thats how its looking to me at the moment.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by Vanster67 on 2013-02-27, 5:17 pm

Ligjt to moderate snow with 35 degrees here in monterey. yard is turning white
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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-27, 5:29 pm

Reb wrote:John, depends on how east they are talking...it could be a carolina special. thats how its looking to me at the moment.

I hadn't looked at the model, but since they said just east I was hoping for a LP around Charlotte.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-27, 5:35 pm

[quote="OakRidgeWeatherGuy"]
John1122 wrote:From the GSP update. Sounds like the Euro might be okay for East TN at least with the closed low near Oak Ridge.

Hey John..I live here in Oak Ridge..Would this be a good thing or bad thing for Oak Ridge..Snow wise because I am wanting to see some snow!

The longer it stays closed the better. When they open they weaken.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-27, 6:31 pm

Vanster67 wrote:Ligjt to moderate snow with 35 degrees here in monterey. yard is turning white

Congrats Vann. 37 with drizzle here.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-27, 6:58 pm

OHX SPS for Fri-Sat.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH ACTUAL TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOVEMENT ACROSS THE MID STATE. BUT AS OF THIS TIME...
THERE IS AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE/ALABAMA
BORDER...TO AROUND ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
HIGHLAND RIM AND LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER.
AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU MAY RANGE
FROM TWO INCHES...TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING THREE INCHES ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATEAU.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-28, 12:35 am

Had some nice snow showers, pretty much deck and car coaters.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-28, 1:50 am

GFS is still on board with some good potential. This has been showing up in some form over several runs. It's been on the Euro too. It takes a strange path on the GFS, extreme blocking forces it almost due S then lets it slide East.






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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-28, 1:50 am

That track dumps on the Eastern side of East Tennessee.


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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-28, 1:55 am

This is Fri-Sat system.


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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-02-28, 2:14 am

It looks like the second system is trending better on the Euro and GFS. They are both trending south and the 0z GFS was money for E Tn and NC. It would not take much for this one to make a lot of people happy and end winter on a good note.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-28, 5:46 am

MRX and OHX vary greatly on the today-Sat systems. OHX is 5-7 degrees cooler and 20-30% higher on their snow chances than MRX for areas a mile apart where their CWAs meet.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-28, 5:58 am

It's been coming down pretty steady here for a bit. Heavy dusting here now.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by Reb on 2013-02-28, 6:37 am

some nice flurries in maryville, radar kicking in full gear hopefully it gets here before the temps do.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by jmundie on 2013-02-28, 6:46 am

ummm - this is OT for sure - but where the heck are you Toot. You've gone 24 hours without posting.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

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