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Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-24, 2:07 am

Even Saturday evening.


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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by Toot on 2013-02-24, 7:25 am

snowdog wrote:

It looks better than it actually is. Again, if you look at the skew-t's on twisterdata from hour 84 to 144 on the 00z gfs, maybe a couple of 6 hour increments shows a half way decently saturated column.


What in the hell are you talking about? The skew t's and 700..850 and 925mb graphics are the SAME exact data. The Skew t's dont magically get their data from somewhere else! LOL Its not possible to "look better than it actually is" This is meteorology not magic! lol

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by Toot on 2013-02-24, 8:36 am

From meteorologist Robert gamble


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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by Toot on 2013-02-24, 8:37 am

A strong upper low will get stuck in the Oh Valley and just churn cyclonically sending cold adviction snow squalls south and east of the low for an extended period of time. Get your coats ready and be prepared for wintry driving conditions! Winter is not over people!


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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by snowdog on 2013-02-24, 8:46 am

John1122 wrote:That weather underground map only picks up 1+ inches of snow in a given 3 hour period. Just looking at the precip maps there are several frames of .05 3 hour periods of precip on the Euro.

Honestly there's not telling how strong a given spoke of energy will be until they're on top of you. That and timing are everything. Unless there are major changes I feel decent that Nashville and points east have a shot of 1-3 inches of snowfall if the energy passes at a favorable time of day. Most being on the lower end of that 1-3.

Much higher amounts will be possible in the favored upslope areas.

On the wundermap Euro, I was looking at MSL not snowfall. I agree that these spokes of energy are hard to model strength wise, which is why I usually try to throw in a as modeled now disclaimer. I think as things are being modeled now Nashville and any area outside of plateau/mountains (which would be the usual favored upslope areas) are looking at a dusting to 1" at the most.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by snowdog on 2013-02-24, 8:48 am

Toot wrote:What in the hell are you talking about? The skew t's and 700..850 and 925mb graphics are the SAME exact data. The Skew t's dont magically get their data from somewhere else! LOL Its not possible to "look better than it actually is" This is meteorology not magic! lol

Come on Toot. You can spot a virga storm a mile away on skew-t's while model data will show a raging snowstorm that isn't happening.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by Toot on 2013-02-24, 8:53 am

Snowdog virga is a waa feature not a caa feature..you should know this son..lol

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by Toot on 2013-02-24, 10:18 am

12znam with 534DM cold core upper low centered over Memphis yikes



With good moisture..would think that would be snow givin the dynamics


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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2013-02-24, 2:27 pm

Trying to post the link I read from met Jason Foley blog. He had a good write up regarding a classic Winter storm setup for next Monday for the Tennessee valley, including Georgia and Alabama folks. Said the Euro is on board with the look of a major snow.

Will post link when I get to my laptop and off this tablet.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-24, 3:10 pm

snowdog wrote:
Toot wrote:What in the hell are you talking about? The skew t's and 700..850 and 925mb graphics are the SAME exact data. The Skew t's dont magically get their data from somewhere else! LOL Its not possible to "look better than it actually is" This is meteorology not magic! lol

Come on Toot. You can spot a virga storm a mile away on skew-t's while model data will show a raging snowstorm that isn't happening.

Virga is taken into account on model precip forecasts. And this isn't a virga situation. This will be a situation where the atmosphere is very cold and all moisture will be squeezed out in the form of snow. Because it's going to be around -10 all the way down to 850, snow will fall out of the lower levels. It'll be the kind of snow that radar will have trouble picking up along the plateau.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-02-24, 4:56 pm

Last 2 runs of the gfs and nam are drier and drier. Also anything that falls during the day will melt! Highs for me will still be near 40 degrees. I don't see a storm for next weekend or Monday! This has been winter for me! yak

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-24, 5:37 pm

Jscentraltn wrote: Last 2 runs of the gfs and nam are drier and drier. Also anything that falls during the day will melt! Highs for me will still be near 40 degrees. I don't see a storm for next weekend or Monday! This has been winter for me! yak

The Euro is showing a Miller A in the extended that gives a good portion of Tennessee several inches.

As for the amount of moisture being modelled, it's way too far out to pay attention to that. These shortwaves are very hard to predict strength wise. The pattern is good for cold/snow showery weather. One of the shortwaves may pulse up and drop a quick 1-2 inches as it did to may areas on Super Bowl weekend.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-24, 5:49 pm

Toot wrote:From meteorologist Robert gamble

Not saying it'll happen, but this is the March 1960 setup that produced such a snow bonanza across Tennessee. It locked in in late February and stayed all month just about. Produced 3 major snow events and almost continual upslope and frigid cold.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by VFL on 2013-02-24, 6:22 pm

John1122 wrote:
Toot wrote:From meteorologist Robert gamble

Not saying it'll happen, but this is the March 1960 setup that produced such a snow bonanza across Tennessee. It locked in in late February and stayed all month just about. Produced 3 major snow events and almost continual upslope and frigid cold.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-24, 6:34 pm

I hate the rain/snow forecast and in JKL's discussion they say that it will be snow during the night and morning, then rain in the afternoon, then back to snow in the evenings, day after day.

Because the 850s are very cold, its easy for snow to stay snow to the surface once it starts falling. This isn't a WAA scenairo, it's just the opposite, a CAA set up. Having lived in this area for decades now, I've never saw it play out that way in a CAA situation. Especially in late Feb/Early March. I've saw it set up this way in early to mid April and it still produces snow showers when the energy moves into an area.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by Toot on 2013-02-24, 8:26 pm

Totally agree John and the setup you speak of is exactly why virga will be non existant

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by Jed33 on 2013-02-24, 9:25 pm

This looks good to me for next Sun.
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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by ballpark on 2013-02-24, 11:19 pm

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php The old saying goes left out in the cold high and dry.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-25, 12:28 am

GFS stays very cold with a southern stream system in about 9-10 days. May not come anything close to happening, but we're in a decent pattern for it to do so.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by John1122 on 2013-02-25, 12:49 am


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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by Toot on 2013-02-25, 8:21 am

CMC has it too

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by Coach B on 2013-02-25, 9:08 am

How about this look:

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by snowdog on 2013-02-25, 9:52 am

Toot wrote:Snowdog virga is a waa feature not a caa feature..you should know this son..lol

The time frame in question is not featuring caa. It is more a feature of night time cooling along with a little wetbulbing. You can see the column saturate from hour 108 to hour 120 from this mornings 06z GFS on twisterdata. Around hour 114 you have mostly virga with maybe a very very light precip making it to the ground. Somewhere in between hour 114 and hour 120 the column fully saturates and you have a decent snow profile.

Just for clarification, the definition of virga: streaks of water drops or ice particles falling out of a cloud and evaporating before reaching the ground.

hr 108


hr 114


hr 120

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by tom23 on 2013-02-25, 11:59 am

I agree with snowdog here. This doesn't look like a CAA event to me, more like what he mentioned, night time cooling with slight wet bulbing occuring. I don't think this one will be anything major, maybe 1-2 inches, but again, its too early to talk amounts.

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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

Post by ballpark on 2013-02-25, 12:14 pm


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Re: Late Feb/Early March Potential Winter Weather

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