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Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

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Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Toot on 2013-03-06, 7:29 pm

A warming trend will begin tomorrow as widespread temps may get into the 60's Sunday into Monday but this warmup will be shortlived as a strong cold front is slated to march through the region Tuesday returning us to a more winter than springlike pattern.

If its Spring you're looking for..then look no further than the extended range of todays run of the european model. Its quite the site for sore eyes!


I will be rooting for that^ pals


Last edited by Toot on 2013-10-12, 10:58 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by windstorm on 2013-03-07, 10:41 am

Another month and i will be making a garden .. The year has been flying by. Hate what's coming this summer. Hope this spring will calm down compare to the last 2 springs. Many tornadoes the last two springs. One hitting just 2 miles from my house the other 4.5 miles from the house. To close for me. In the last 2 years 25 to 30 miles around me we have had at lest 10 to 12 people die from tornadoes . Of course we will have the Blackberry winters, Dogwood winters in the spring that's to be expected. There may be more. But when we get a cool spell in spring this is what the old timers call these cool snaps. Have a great day and a great weekend . The sun is breaking out and i am looking forward to this weekend with temps in the 60's.. Very Happy
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Toot on 2013-03-08, 8:12 am

The sun is shining this morning for the first time in days. Maybe we can haz 50 degrees today? cheers

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Toot on 2013-03-10, 11:18 am

Looks like many locations have a chance of hitting 70 degrees today. beer

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by windstorm on 2013-03-10, 2:17 pm

Am at 71 now at 1:00 p.m.
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Toot on 2013-03-10, 3:14 pm

LOL..euro says hang on..im not finished with winter yet!

Latest run portrays major east coast winter storm in about one weeks time! This would be around March 18th and this solution has critical NAO forecast support. This graphic shouldnt be taken literally but will need to be watched to see if other guidance models start to pick up on the same idea.

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-03-10, 7:45 pm

i am starting to like a system around the 20th... the gfs has been pretty consistent with this... potential a severe weather threat for the midsouth region... i will keep monitoring this threat as time moves along.

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Toot on 2013-03-10, 9:00 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:i am starting to like a system around the 20th... the gfs has been pretty consistent with this... potential a severe weather threat for the midsouth region... i will keep monitoring this threat as time moves along.
If the euro is correct there will be no severe..if the gfs is correct there will be no snow! LOL you have to love weather models cheers

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-03-10, 10:17 pm

Toot wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:i am starting to like a system around the 20th... the gfs has been pretty consistent with this... potential a severe weather threat for the midsouth region... i will keep monitoring this threat as time moves along.
If the euro is correct there will be no severe..if the gfs is correct there will be no snow! LOL you have to love weather models cheers
climo says go with the gfs... if the gfs verifies, no snow and good severe chance

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Toot on 2013-03-10, 10:25 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:climo says go with the gfs... if the gfs verifies, no snow and good severe chance
NAO forecasts from both the gfs and the euro say go with the euro. If the euro verifies.. no severe and great snow here in east TN. Razz

That said the euro seems quite extreme and unlikely whiskey

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Toot on 2013-03-11, 6:14 pm

12z euro came north a little but its has miller b like secondary. The blocking pattern is strong and will try to push a storm southward but the GFS and EURO are still worlds apart in the extended range. It will be interesting to see how this plays out..it looks like a very similar setup to last system

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-12, 1:57 am

For some reason NWS has a 20 percent chance of snow in the forecast for my area for Tomorrow night. Another slight chance Friday morning.

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Jed33 on 2013-03-12, 7:14 am

Just reading the AFD, they think temps will cool enough, and enough moisture and lift will be around for isolated to scattered snow showers. However, accums. Should be less than 1in. Whats really a slap in the face is cold(for March standards) temps this week. 40s for highs and 20s for lows, lol. So, much for spring.

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by windstorm on 2013-03-12, 5:07 pm

Thats a good thing for March with cool temps. Keeps the severe weather at bay. Glad to see it. Hope this is a very quiet spring for severe weather. Hope spring is full of warm days and sunshine with April showers. No Hot weather before it's time. We will have plenty of time for hot weather which i can't stand. Have a good week ahead everyone. 20 years ago day we were fixing to get slap in the face with brrrm! a major snow storm. Boy how time fly by.
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Toot on 2013-03-12, 6:24 pm

R.I.P Winter 2012/13. Now lets get the severe season rolling..got to get rid of that -NAO first study

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-03-12, 6:27 pm

windstorm wrote:Thats a good thing for March with cool temps. Keeps the severe weather at bay. Glad to see it. Hope this is a very quiet spring for severe weather. Hope spring is full of warm days and sunshine with April showers. No Hot weather before it's time. We will have plenty of time for hot weather which i can't stand. Have a good week ahead everyone. 20 years ago day we were fixing to get slap in the face with brrrm! a major snow storm. Boy how time fly by.
enjoy the peace n quite while u can... were on borrowed time, things fixing to get active as nao slwly goes positive... greg corbin of spc has a nice write up on this severe spring season... has the midsouth lower ohio valley and tennessee valley right in the very actvie above normal severe season ahead this year...

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by VFL on 2013-03-12, 7:19 pm

beer
tennessee storm09 wrote:
windstorm wrote:Thats a good thing for March with cool temps. Keeps the severe weather at bay. Glad to see it. Hope this is a very quiet spring for severe weather. Hope spring is full of warm days and sunshine with April showers. No Hot weather before it's time. We will have plenty of time for hot weather which i can't stand. Have a good week ahead everyone. 20 years ago day we were fixing to get slap in the face with brrrm! a major snow storm. Boy how time fly by.
enjoy the peace n quite while u can... were on borrowed time, things fixing to get active as nao slwly goes positive... greg corbin of spc has a nice write up on this severe spring season... has the midsouth lower ohio valley and tennessee valley right in the very actvie above normal severe season ahead this year...

Do you have a link for this write up OP.
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-03-12, 7:36 pm

VFL wrote: beer
tennessee storm09 wrote:
windstorm wrote:Thats a good thing for March with cool temps. Keeps the severe weather at bay. Glad to see it. Hope this is a very quiet spring for severe weather. Hope spring is full of warm days and sunshine with April showers. No Hot weather before it's time. We will have plenty of time for hot weather which i can't stand. Have a good week ahead everyone. 20 years ago day we were fixing to get slap in the face with brrrm! a major snow storm. Boy how time fly by.
enjoy the peace n quite while u can... were on borrowed time, things fixing to get active as nao slwly goes positive... greg corbin of spc has a nice write up on this severe spring season... has the midsouth lower ohio valley and tennessee valley right in the very actvie above normal severe season ahead this year...

Do you have a link for this write up OP.
go over to talk weather forum vfl... its in the march long range discussion... course you know how i am when it comes to copying stuff and transforming it here. lol maybe toot can fetch it for us

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by windstorm on 2013-03-12, 7:44 pm

Hate to hear that. I hope he is wrong. But i know in the spring severe weather has to come. Because one thing we are going from winter to spring a battle of the air masses . But hope it is a lot less than years past. facepalm
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Toot on 2013-03-12, 8:59 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:

go over to talk weather forum vfl... its in the march long range discussion... course you know how i am when it comes to copying stuff and transforming it here. lol maybe toot can fetch it for us
Lol..you are already too amped up over severe season. lol!

The only thing I seen was a comment by Greg Carbin of the SPC on Andrews weather centre severe wx outlook. This is the same Andrew that made a post on facebook just last night of what he thought was a tropical storm on the long range gfs! lmao It went something to the tune of.."Whats that on the long range GFS folks? That's a tropical storm impacting Florida!" Needless to say I had to tell him it was completely cold core making it completely non tropical per GFS core temps! He quickly deleted the post and veered off onto something else.

Im not saying the guy is completely stupid because he does have some great posts from time to time...but if you're going to post something on FB about meteorology its best to know what you are talking about before posting it..Just saying lmao

As far as severe wx goes..the NAO is forecast to go negative in the extended range..so any organized severe wx outbreak will most likely have to wait until at least April unless something quickly changes and that is always possible.


Last edited by Toot on 2013-03-12, 9:10 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-03-12, 9:05 pm

Toot wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:

go over to talk weather forum vfl... its in the march long range discussion... course you know how i am when it comes to copying stuff and transforming it here. lol maybe toot can fetch it for us
Lol..you are already too amped up over severe season. lol!

The only thing I seen was a comment by Greg Carbin of the SPC on Andrews weather centre severe wx outlook. This is the same Andrew that made a post on facebook just last night of what he thought was a tropical storm on the long range gfs! lmao It went something to the tune of.."Whats that on the long range GFS folks? That's a tropical storm impacting Florida!" Needless to say I had to tell him it was completely cold core making it completely non tropical per GFS core temps! He quickly deleted the post and veered off onto something else.

Im not saying the guy is completely stupid because he does have some great posts from time to time...but if you're going to post something on FB about meteorology its best to know what you are talking about before posting it..Just saying lmao

As far as severe wx goes..the NAO is forecast to go negative in the extended range..so severe will probably have to wait until at least April unless something quickly changes.
last 2 runs of the gfs says its game on late next weekend, course its just beyond trauny period, but look at the 850 vort over central iowa... prime location for severe weather for the midsouth and tennessee valley region... also rich moisture return from not only the gulf but the caarbean origin, lets see if the models can finally grasp a system and keep it.

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by VFL on 2013-03-12, 9:25 pm

Dis gonna b good.
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-12, 11:33 pm

Don Sutherland recently posted he expects a below average severe season. But it only takes one big event to cause major destruction.

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-13, 7:23 am

Had a car top and deck duster this morning. 27 degrees and a very brief snow shower came through.

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Jed33 on 2013-03-13, 8:16 am

Had a snow shower here too just a few min. Ago. No dusting though. It was pretty to look at while it was falling though.

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