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Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Toot on 2013-03-29, 10:12 pm

etnwx wrote:Is there still a likelihood of snow 4/3 - 4/5, or is the thinking now it isn't happening?
I dont think it wil happen. The synoptic setup they are showing is very questionable and climo is also in complete disagreement with the snowy outcome. Ima pull the bullshit card out on this one!

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-03-30, 10:13 pm

both euro and the gfs are in remarkable good agreement in developing a sharp deep trough west in mid longer range that will translate eastward with time... very strong upper level jet being modeled with this feature...look for a strong to powerful surface low pressure to developp over the plains as models r starting to hin at this... this has the potential to produce a nasty severe outbreak just after the first week of april...

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Toot on 2013-03-31, 4:01 pm


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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-04-01, 4:37 pm

models starting to indicate a sharp upper trough forming out west with a stout upper level jet streaking across with this feature... some differences with todays gfs n euro... with the gfs being way more progressive with this... mid 60s into lower ohio valley... so instability is very high with deep lo level moisture tapping in not only gulf but carribean also... but euro is less progressive with this n closes off sooner and hold energy back sw longer, which the euro is very bias about ... trends keep up, may be time to leaast open up a april severe topic at least... as april looks to be getting quite rocky soon

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Toot on 2013-04-01, 6:15 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:as april looks to be getting quite rocky soon

lol

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-04-01, 7:34 pm

Toot wrote:
tennessee storm09 wrote:as april looks to be getting quite rocky soon

lol
hey toot, can we make that a PDS tornado watch... lol

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Jed33 on 2013-04-02, 11:10 am

Lol, here comes the "S" word again from MRX. Albeit is for northern areas and higher elevations.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL DOMINATE AREA WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE STORM TRACK WILL LIE TO OUR SOUTH AND MAY CARRY IN A FEW BANDS OF CLOUDS.
THE HIGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES NORTHEAST AND INTO THE AREA. PRECIP WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATION AND HIGHER TERRAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH ON THURSDAY FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT.

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Jed33 on 2013-04-02, 8:08 pm

Lol, MRX freeze warning for tonight is in serious jepordy of busting. They didnt expect nearly this many clouds tonight in northern areas. A quick glance at the satellite doesn't appear that they will scatter out enough toallow for the cooling they are forecasting tonight. Good thing too, as dp's are lower than originally thought. Meaning temps would have dropped way down were it not for the clouds. I'm all for cold and snow, but this late in the year, we dont need temps. Below 25. I'm glad it appears that we will dodge a bullet thanks to the clouds.

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Toot on 2013-04-02, 9:13 pm

Well... MRX is not the only one being silly tonight lapat

Stupidest Special Weather statement I have ever seen..lulz!


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
534 PM CDT TUE APR 2 2013

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-030145-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...CAMDEN...ERIN...
WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...
MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...
LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...
FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...
WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...
TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER...
WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
534 PM CDT TUE APR 2 2013

...SLEET BEING REPORTED IN A FEW SPOTS...

SLEET FELL BRIEFLY HERE AT THE WEATHER OFFICE SHORTLY AFTER 5 PM...AND WE HAVE ALSO RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF SLEET IN OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE MID STATE. EVEN THOUGH SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S. THE SLEET IS BEING CAUSED BY RAIN FALLING THROUGH MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE RAIN FALLS FROM HIGHER LEVELS INTO DRIER AIR IT COOLS THE AIR MASS IN THE LOWER LEVELS BELOW FREEZING BY WAY OF EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...THUS HELPING TO FURTHER COOL THE AIR MASS IN THE LOWER LEVELS BELOW FREEZING...THUS FORMING SLEET PELLETS OR ICE PELLETS.

WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PROBLEMS ON ROADWAYS FROM THE SLEET THIS EVENING. SLEET GENERALLY IS NOT AN ISSUED WHERE TREES AND TREE LIMBS ARE OF CONCERN. SLEET CAN BE EASILY IDENTIFIED SIMPLY BECAUSE IT BOUNCES ON IMPACT.

LMFAO!

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Jed33 on 2013-04-02, 9:20 pm

Lol^^^
OHX must have sat in on a training session with MRX. Seriously, are they for real? To feel the need to issue an sps just to 'splain what sleet is, what a waste of an sps facepalm

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Toot on 2013-04-02, 9:32 pm

Its like they dont realize that precip ALWAYS lowers surface air temperatures this time of year! I know its boring in the weather department currently but sheesh! Why issue a special weather statement because a few sleet pellets fell on your grass this evening? lmao

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Toot on 2013-04-02, 9:52 pm

BTW..who would have thought it would take April to see storm centers AKA low pressure systems tracking along the gulf coast? This will be the first true gulf low that I have seen this winter/spring scratch

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Jed33 on 2013-04-02, 10:40 pm

I know, geeze, it's too bad it's not January 10 or so. I can only imagine how that would play out given this setup

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by windstorm on 2013-04-03, 11:32 am

Spring is now two weeks old and still for the most part it has been cool/cold to the start of spring. Plus rain is forecast for tonight and Thursday which will but quiet cool also. Trees this year has been slow to pop out but i am seeing them take there own sweet time. Last year everything come out all at once. But we had a very warm start to spring last year. Another thing that is good is as i have said before it keeps the severe weather at bay. But this will all change in the next two weeks am sure. By this time last year i was running my AC. But hot weather is coming which i don't like. So if you like hot weather there is plenty of time to get your fill of it. Am just rambling because the weather board is quiet since winter has past. Plus it's time for my meds. Have a good day everyone. wacko
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Jed33 on 2013-04-04, 9:29 pm

Not very far from here, at my mother-in-laws house in Bristol, VA, it snowed and sleeted from about noon till dark. The deck was covered with sleet for awhile, and the ground slushy. They are at exit 7. From exit 22 N, snow apparently covered the ground, and roads were getting bad. I know, that area has some pretty good elevation going up 81, so I don't doubt that those reports are accurate. Judging by radar, it looked like heavy snow set up from about Abigdon north and east.

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Toot on 2013-04-05, 5:41 pm

The first widespread severe weather event looks to be on the horizon around April 11th-13th. Will have to wait and see just how far east the severe threat can progress but I imagine at least parts of dixie alley and the mid south will likely have tornado threats and this all could possibly come eastward. The Storm prediction center has issued convective outlooks to cover this system.

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Toot on 2013-04-06, 6:17 pm

12z gfs ensembles have a Classic track for a severe weather outbreak here in Tennessee!

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by VFL on 2013-04-06, 10:53 pm

Is this legit threat for us Toot?
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by weathertree4u on 2013-04-07, 7:41 am

VFL wrote:Is this legit threat for us Toot?

NWS Nashville still not willing to pull the chord on the threat

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Toot on 2013-04-07, 10:13 am

VFL wrote:Is this legit threat for us Toot?
So far yes it does look like a legit severe threat but that can change quickly.

Climatologically speaking this will be a bigger threat the further west you are. Any discrete cells usually congeal into a more linear squall line by the time they get as far east as us. But this is not always the case..even so spinup tornadoes embedded in a squall line are always possible but the main threat will be that of strong winds and or hail this far east me thinks. That said..Western TN may have more of a rotating discrete supercell threat tho


weathertree4u wrote:
NWS Nashville still not willing to pull the chord on the threat
They have mentioned the threat in their latest AFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
553 AM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

IN THE EXT FCST...A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING FROPA. AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WED INTO WED NT. OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ MAGNITUDES APPEAR TO ALIGN AND LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THEREFORE...THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AND WILL BE MENTIONED LATER THIS MORNING IN THE HWO.

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by weathertree4u on 2013-04-07, 1:21 pm

Toot wrote:
VFL wrote:Is this legit threat for us Toot?
So far yes it does look like a legit severe threat but that can change quickly.

Climatologically speaking this will be a bigger threat the further west you are. Any discrete cells usually congeal into a more linear squall line by the time they get as far east as us. But this is not always the case..even so spinup tornadoes embedded in a squall line are always possible but the main threat will be that of strong winds and or hail this far east me thinks. That said..Western TN may have more of a rotating discrete supercell threat tho


weathertree4u wrote:
NWS Nashville still not willing to pull the chord on the threat
They have mentioned the threat in their latest AFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
553 AM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

IN THE EXT FCST...A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING FROPA. AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WED INTO WED NT. OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ MAGNITUDES APPEAR TO ALIGN AND LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THEREFORE...THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AND WILL BE MENTIONED LATER THIS MORNING IN THE HWO.

Don't know that I would term the situation as being monitored as officially pulling the chord; I would start monitoring the situation if the NWS issued a statement other than including it in the HWO

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by windstorm on 2013-04-07, 3:16 pm

Let hope it don't happen. Am tired of people losing homes,life and all the good things it took years to get. If it were possible that we could see these tornadoes etc.. from a distance and no one in the path of them that would be great. But it's spring and we are getting into prime time. So everyone be safe and smart at the same time.
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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Jed33 on 2013-04-07, 3:22 pm

Lol, you guys are cracking me up with the whole "pulling the chord" thing. I can just picture OHX singing right along as they look for the right "chord" haha, naw, jokes aside, we could be rockin' and rollin' soon!

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Toot on 2013-04-07, 3:22 pm

weathertree4u wrote:
Don't know that I would term the situation as being monitored as officially pulling the chord; I would start monitoring the situation if the NWS issued a statement other than including it in the HWO

All thats left for them to do is issue special weather statements. They wont issue those until the event gets closer and/or the SPC issues a slight risk for that particular area. Not sure what you mean by "pulling the cord" ? They already say that paramters and such for severe weather are quite supportive in their AFD.

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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

Post by Toot on 2013-04-07, 6:04 pm

Expecting a high in between 80-85 here Thursday due to vigorous southerly flow ahead of strong LPS/cold front!


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Re: Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

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