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Spring wx discussion 2013 edition

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Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-04-24, 6:51 pm

Frost Advisory tonight. Low of 35. bs

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Post by Jed33 on 2013-04-24, 10:11 pm

Well, dogwoods are in full bloom around here, so I guess this is what you'd call "Dogwood Winter". It's really cooled off here tonight. I'd imagine were we still in, Feb. or Mar., these showers we're having tonight would be snow showers. I'm glad for the rain though, my lettuce and spinach absolutely love this kind of weather.

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Post by Toot on 2013-04-25, 9:01 pm

Interesting storm system being progged around May 4th/5th timeframe. Ive seen anything from a significant severe weather outbreak to a strong winter like Nor'easter being progged..although that doesn't mean accumulating snow this time of year.

Timeframe will need to be watched for some type of significant storm system with the unusual colder airmass lurking NNW.

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Post by windstorm on 2013-04-26, 10:14 am

Looks like some good rains coming in the next 5 to 7 days.http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif
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Post by etnwx on 2013-04-26, 1:13 pm

Spring wx discussion 2013 edition - Page 7 GFS_3_2013042612_F102_PCPIN_96_HR

Even more rain. Up to 4"

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Post by Toot on 2013-04-26, 7:21 pm

You rarely see this even progged this time of year and normally I dont write off anything a guidance model suggests but i can assure the GFS is definately smoking CRACK!!
Spring wx discussion 2013 edition - Page 7 37033_526407947404882_745035172_n
Spring wx discussion 2013 edition - Page 7 Crackhead2

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Post by Jed33 on 2013-04-26, 8:49 pm

Lol, I saw that earlier on amwx. GAweather (Larry) commented on how insane that solution was. Said the same thing. Geez, has snowfall of that magnitude ever fallen in May in the valley? It would be crazy beyond crazy to see that verify. However, regardless looks like it could get pretty chilly next weekend.

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Post by Toot on 2013-04-26, 9:05 pm

Lol..I dont know of any accumulating snow in the valley in the month of May! Hell we couldnt even get that done with Sandy near the last of October so generally speaking it would likley take a stronger system than Sandy to do it in May I would think. lmao

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Post by Toot on 2013-04-27, 3:04 am

0z GFS winds up a massive 532 DM Cold Core Low affraid
Spring wx discussion 2013 edition - Page 7 Miiesk

Pops an intense surface while changing the rain to snow on the NW side
Spring wx discussion 2013 edition - Page 7 Fv8wur
Spring wx discussion 2013 edition - Page 7 Dr302t
Spring wx discussion 2013 edition - Page 7 Zn7nll

As a result high temps here next Saturday dont get out of the 30's which is unheard of and no doubt would shatter records with Temps winding up near 45 degrees below normal
cold
Spring wx discussion 2013 edition - Page 7 N2bajd

And 6-8 inches of snow on the ground cheers
Spring wx discussion 2013 edition - Page 7 34h9kb8

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Post by John1122 on 2013-04-27, 4:52 am

May 9th 1916 or so my grandpa said we had 9 inches of snow in knee high corn. I remember a May monster snow in the Smokies above 4000 or so feet. 3+ feet if I remember correctly. 40s and heavy rain in the lower elevations.

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Post by windstorm on 2013-04-27, 11:24 am

That's right John. I don't remember the year but it happen as much as 5 ft recorded maybe not all at once but over several days.
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Post by windstorm on 2013-04-27, 11:30 am

Toot wrote:You rarely see this even progged this time of year and normally I dont write off anything a guidance model suggests but i can assure the GFS is definately smoking CRACK!!
Spring wx discussion 2013 edition - Page 7 37033_526407947404882_745035172_n
Spring wx discussion 2013 edition - Page 7 Crackhead2
The GFS loves CRACK. That's how it makes it's winter forecast. Been a cold spring. Watch out for summer. If we have a cool summer, am thinking maybe some good times ahead for winter in the south. Also watch to see if the NE has a cool to cold summer. Does not mean cold winters every time but something to watch for.
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Post by windstorm on 2013-04-27, 11:32 am

If it turns out cold next week blame it on AL GORE. rfl
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Post by Toot on 2013-04-27, 12:45 pm

John1122 wrote:May 9th 1916 or so my grandpa said we had 9 inches of snow in knee high corn. I remember a May monster snow in the Smokies above 4000 or so feet. 3+ feet if I remember correctly. 40s and heavy rain in the lower elevations.
The 9 inches of snow in knee high corn is crazy!! uh oh


Meanwhile the GFS has started coming to its senses the last two runs. It has moved the cutoff much further west and at a much more believable intensity like the euro. Starting to look more like a severe weather producer than that of a snow threat. Models will struggle with this though as this is likely a large scale pattern changing storm and I expect guidance models are still struggling with the trough placement and orientation. It would not at all surprise me to see a trend away from the cutoff into more of a classic severe weather maker/OH valley screamer!

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Post by Toot on 2013-04-27, 3:15 pm

Spring wx discussion 2013 edition - Page 7 Mcd0563
Code:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0563
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0155 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL MS...NWRN AL...WRN TN...ERN AR
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
 
  VALID 271855Z - 272100Z
 
  PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
 
  SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH
  TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY BY LATE-AFTERNOON. A TORNADO AND PERHAPS A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BECOME NECESSARY AT SOME POINT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING OF WW ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON.
 
  DISCUSSION...18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1015 MB CYCLONE 30 W KHOT
  WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD TO NEAR KMEM TO KHSV AND A COLD
  FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO NERN TX. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVERAGE WAS
  PREVALENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONES. NEVERTHELESS...SURFACE
  TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED THROUGH THE 70S IN MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR
  INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MS...WHILE DEW POINTS HAVE HELD
  IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THIS IS FOSTERING THE INCREASING PRESENCE OF A
  MODERATELY BUOYANT AIR MASS.
 
  CONVERGENCE ALONG PRIMARILY THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS BANDS OF
  CONFLUENCE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL YIELD INCREASING TSTM
  COVERAGE AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. WITH A BELT OF
  STRONG 700-500 MB FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE COMPACT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
  MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN MO...SETUP SHOULD YIELD SEVERAL
  SUPERCELLS/MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
  WIND. 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 15-25 KT WILL ALSO SUPPORT A RISK FOR A FEW
  TORNADOES...MOST LIKELY NEAR THE WARM FRONT FROM ERN AR INTO WRN TN.
 
  ..GRAMS/HART.. 04/27/2013

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Post by Toot on 2013-04-27, 6:37 pm

Spring wx discussion 2013 edition - Page 7 Ww0141_radar_big
Code:
 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 141
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  350 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013
 
  THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
 
  * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
    EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
    NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
    SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE
 
  * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
    1100 PM CDT.
 
  * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
    SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
    SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
      INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
    SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
 
  THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE
  MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
  JACKSON TENNESSEE TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS.  FOR
  A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
  OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
 
  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 
  REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
  TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
  AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
  THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
  AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
 
  &&
 
  DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY ALONG A WARM
  FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM A LOW NEAR LIT TO NORTH OF MEM.  A
  MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
  FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S.  DEEP EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
  SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL POSE A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.
 
  AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
  SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
  WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
  450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

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Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-04-27, 8:47 pm

This is a little off topic but current weather related. I have been guiding clients crappie fishing the last couple of months. That along with my lawn care business makes me study the 36 hr forecast daily on a detailed hourly basis. You would not believe how bad TWC local forecast has been kicking the NWS 's ass. Ever day the TWC has beat them with accuracy. Especially the wind. Perfect example was today. Fished a tourney. TWC called for a E to SE wind of 10 to 15. NWS had SSE around 5 mph. It blew ESE 10 to 15 all day.

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Post by Toot on 2013-04-28, 6:33 am

That is pretty bad on the NWS DW! You really dont have to get up all that early to out forecast TWC lmao

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Post by Toot on 2013-04-28, 11:53 am

GFS still suggesting another frost possible next weekend
Spring wx discussion 2013 edition - Page 7 T5mwl3

Hopefully it will keep trending towards the euro which says the gfs is full of bull butter!

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Post by Jed33 on 2013-04-28, 12:49 pm

Lol at Bull Butter^^^

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Post by Toot on 2013-05-01, 9:19 am

Possibility of severe storms in the OH and TN valleys this weekend with negative tilted upper level low
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Post by windstorm on 2013-05-01, 4:03 pm

The high temperature yesterday... Tuesday April 30th... at Amarillo, TX
reached 97 degrees at 553 PM CDT. This breaks the old record of 93
which was set in 1981. Tonight they are expecting 1 - 3 inches of snow. What a turn around...
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Post by Toot on 2013-05-01, 4:16 pm

New european model caves into the american models idea of sweeping an intense bowling ball upper level low across the TN valley. Tight pocket of below freezing 850 temps under core of cold core low. Snow will likely be possible in higher elevations of TN/NC!!!!
Spring wx discussion 2013 edition - Page 7 577606_410916355682789_962130322_n

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Post by snowdog on 2013-05-02, 12:35 am

The late season cold and snow in the midwest has been crazy. The longer we hold off the unseasonable warmth, the happier I am. After the cold start to spring here in TN, it has been an absolutely perfect.

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Post by windstorm on 2013-05-02, 6:13 am

Been a nice spring. And hear it is May 2nd. Just think how time is flying by next month the days will once again start becoming shorter. After first day of summer. But it will take several days after that, but it's coming. Don't see any real severe weather in East Tenn this weekend. With a cold core low/front and daytime heating there is always a threat of hail. And you can never rule out a tornado because of the time of the year it is.
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