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Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

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Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by Toot on 2013-03-18, 5:30 pm

Ive seen enough to pull the trigger on this thread. Ensembles are now honing in on this threat. Could be a statewide thing if the GFS is correct. There are many things that could go wrong and if you want this snow to stick it will need to fall of the night..but if this trends any stronger it wont matter what time of day it falls whiskey



Last edited by Toot on 2013-03-23, 10:25 pm; edited 4 times in total

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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by Neals on 2013-03-18, 5:58 pm

hmmm? interesting drool

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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-03-18, 6:36 pm

Well I didn't see this tread so I posted on the wrong one! Look at the 18z that just came out gfs went nuts takes the snow to the Midwest? Maybe a fluke or not.

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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by Toot on 2013-03-18, 7:03 pm

Jscentraltn wrote: Look at the 18z that just came out gfs went nuts takes the snow to the Midwest? Maybe a fluke or not.

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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by Toot on 2013-03-18, 7:17 pm

FYI and just to give an idea of how strong the NAO block will be (And likely why the 18zGFS is completely out of its mind) here is the ensembles in clustered agreement for the most negative NAO spike all winter long. This is more likely to be suppressed than turn into a lakes cutter! How negative the NAO is on the index is also a representation on how strong the block is.


The AO is off the freakin charts negative!


Normally I wouldnt be soo bullish this late in the year but there is a strong and clear signal in those two indices above..not too mention the good model agreement aside from the latest run of the 18zGFS

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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-03-18, 9:21 pm

Toot wrote:FYI and just to give an idea of how strong the NAO block will be (And likely why the 18zGFS is completely out of its mind) here is the ensembles in clustered agreement for the most negative NAO spike all winter long. This is more likely to be suppressed than turn into a lakes cutter! How negative the NAO is on the index is also a representation on how strong the block is.


The AO is off the freakin charts negative!


Normally I wouldnt be soo bullish this late in the year but there is a strong and clear signal in those two indices above..not too mention the good model agreement aside from the latest run of the 18zGFS
i got to agree with you there toot, there is a strong signal of blocking going on at the moment... i also hear some conflicting reports from our friend woodvegas that some of us know, said on another forun, the pay site from the euro is showing 3 inches in a large area of the state thrusday nite... and 5 inches for sunday. crazy stuff

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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by Toot on 2013-03-18, 9:46 pm

It will be hard for me to stay up for the euro tonight but at the same time it will be hard for me to go to sleep without seeing it! Sometimes I wish I never got no further than TWC into meteorology lmao


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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-03-18, 10:14 pm

I know man! I agree It just shocked me the 18z run would be that far off. I know what you mean about staying up model watching! My wife thinks i'am crazy to stay up to 1 or 2 in the morning to get up 3 hrs later to go to work. But something is coming just don't know how much. but it will be nice if it is the most I get will be in the spring!

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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by Reb on 2013-03-18, 10:32 pm

Gfs for like a full day of runs has shown a cutter
..slightly concerned

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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-03-18, 10:36 pm

Reb wrote:Gfs for like a full day of runs has shown a cutter
..slightly concerned
reb, there just seems to be to much blocking going on right now for that to happen... and that is coming from a severe weather lover like myself. lol

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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-18, 10:53 pm

I wouldn't put it past a GLC happening by some miracle, but it should be impossible with the blocking in place. FWIW most local forecast offices have been going with the Euro Ens/Canadian rather than the GFS, which they called a very unlikely solution.

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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by Reb on 2013-03-19, 1:22 am

GFS just cut it west of lakes on 0z lol.

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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by Reb on 2013-03-19, 2:34 am

and imagine that...euro goes north as well. LOL

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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by Toot on 2013-03-19, 4:30 pm

12z euro comes back south hundreds of miles beer

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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by Reb on 2013-03-19, 4:38 pm

wintery precip skips tennessee pals

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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-19, 5:13 pm

David Aldridge keeps saying snow in the forecast for early spring.


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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by Toot on 2013-03-19, 6:20 pm

Reb wrote:wintery precip skips tennessee pals

Not at all.. plateau and NE TN gets in on the 12z euro verbatim..looks alot like the last event with Light accums. Although I dont think we have seen the correct solution yet. My money is on this even further south..we'll see

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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-19, 6:35 pm

David Aldridge has 37 and snow next Wednesday in Knoxville. Said this was going to turn into the coldest March most of us remember.

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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-03-19, 6:48 pm

From NWS for Dyersdurg.

Thursday Night Rain, snow, and sleet. Low around 32. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Edit. Well damn just noticed this thread is for next storm.

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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-19, 7:04 pm

Dyersburg Weather wrote:From NWS for Dyersdurg.

Thursday Night Rain, snow, and sleet. Low around 32. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Edit. Well damn just noticed this thread is for next storm.

The further West you are the better chance of precip arriving at night and getting accumulations. OHX says their CWA will possibly see accumulating snow Thursday night into Friday morning too if the dry air isn't to much to overcome.

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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-03-19, 7:08 pm

From MEG popcorn

BY THURSDAY...A SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
INTERMOUNTIAN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH DROPS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD HELP TO INDUCE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ABOVE THE COLD CANADIAN NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL TRANSPORT QUALITY DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ABOVE THE NEAR SURFACE COLD LAYER BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW EARLY IN THE EVENT ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS WARMER
AIR ALOFT MOVES NORTHWARD THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION TO
MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT STILL RESIDES IN THE FIFTH FORECAST
PERIOD WHICH IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE TIME SCOPE FOR A WINTER STORM
WATCH. A WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY TOMORROW FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. PLAN TO ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
WINTER WEATHER INTO THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOO

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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by John1122 on 2013-03-19, 7:10 pm

The 18z GFS says 3 inches for Memphis. The 18z NAM has more North and NE areas from Memphis getting it. It shows 4+ in areas like Clarksville.

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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by Jed33 on 2013-03-19, 8:38 pm

I saw where the GFS puts a 1076 MB HP over greenland tomorrow. Thats a HP that I can't say i've ever seen. I know the all time world record is 1083. This is not fantasy either, this is valid for tomorrow! pass out This magnitude HP should create a block beyond a block that we've seen in recent memory. I'm with Toot on this one. I don't think we've seen the correct solution, but it just seems unlikely with a HP like that over Greenland, that any storm would go North!

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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-03-19, 8:49 pm

I was going to ask how with all this blocking could this go so far north? It will be interesting how it plays out! but If the nam is right I get the most snow of the year thur night fri morning.

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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

Post by Toot on 2013-03-19, 8:59 pm

I seen that also Jed..I also noticed that the GFS is phasing our shortwave with the NE Vortex. This explains the further north solution. The EURO is not phasing anything allowing the shortwave to dig further south.

Here is the 18z GFS and even it isnt anything to be complaining about when meteorological and calendar spring are both here..that is of course if you're not in the godawful Chattanooga snow hole cheers


Crazy pattern for this time of year..of course this will be much better if most of it happens at night too. That late march sun angle can sometimes kill what would normally be a light accumulating event.

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Re: Accumulating Snow Possible Mar 24-26

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