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Long Range Summer 2013

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Long Range Summer 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-04-20, 6:14 pm

Here are some analogs that I am currently looking at based on some similar monthly climatological values of this year from JAN through MAR

Temperature


Precip


I will narrow these down over the next few weeks based on weather pattern behaivor...observed temperature/precip anomalies... ENSO forecast..and current drought conditions. Hopefully that would get us a rough idea of what this summer will be like

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Re: Long Range Summer 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-04-21, 4:08 pm

JAMSTEC for met summer looks like another scorcher torch


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Re: Long Range Summer 2013

Post by etnwx on 2013-04-21, 7:20 pm

facepalm All I can say is I pray they are wrong. Doesn't look good for the polar region either.

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Re: Long Range Summer 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-04-22, 8:52 am

ENSO forecast


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Re: Long Range Summer 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-04-28, 1:57 pm

So looking at this chart are we staying in a Neutral state into the fall of the year ?
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Re: Long Range Summer 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-04-28, 3:31 pm

windstorm wrote:So looking at this chart are we staying in a Neutral state into the fall of the year ?
Certainly looks that way Windstorm!

Here is the latest dynamical model spaghetti forecast chart suggesting the same. Keep in mind that these have a low skill this time of year

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Re: Long Range Summer 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-04-28, 8:37 pm

So if we stay this way into DJF should we expect a repeat of last winter ? I know this is way out and things can change. And there are other factors to figure into this. So i guess we will just have to wait and see.
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Re: Long Range Summer 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-04-28, 9:23 pm

windstorm wrote:So if we stay this way into DJF should we expect a repeat of last winter ? I know this is way out and things can change. And there are other factors to figure into this. So i guess we will just have to wait and see.
Lets get summer out of the way before we start trying to figure out next winter. I can tell you that ENSO is only a very small variable that goes into a seasonal forecast and there are other variables/oscillations that can and have totally trumped the expected pattern of a certain ENSO phase. I wouldnt expect a repeat of last year either. There was a very unique high latitude blocking pattern that dominated our weather most of last winter and I dont expect to see a repeat of that anytime soon.

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Re: Long Range Summer 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-04-29, 10:51 am

Last winter the high latitude blocking was good for you but bad for me and help in NE and maybe far E Tn. We did wind up with 1 inch of snow so it was better than the year before when we got zero. Last year down here we for the most part stay on the warm side of the lows that forum or they cut a path to the NE. We need something out of the GOM cutting across SE GA.. And last winter where you were clipper systems help out up your way also. For me been a nice spring so far really nothing severe Temp running a little below most of the spring on avg. With a hot summer in the forecast which is nothing new because we live in the south. How about rainfall for the summer months ????? torch
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Re: Long Range Summer 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-04-29, 7:15 pm

windstorm wrote: How about rainfall for the summer months ?????
Looking at seasonal models..June looks wetter than normal and July and August look drier than normal!

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Re: Long Range Summer 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-05-19, 12:34 pm

Some info from my blog/summer temp outlook


Meteorological summer begins June 1st and I have settled on 4 different analogs (1955 1970 1987 2012) using past and current climatological data. Long range outlooks such as this one dont have a real great accuracy rate because no two seasons are exactly alike and this outlook is mainly based on past seasons. With that said they can sometimes get pretty close due to similarities of expected and past weather patterns.

This outllook takes into account the Arctic Oscillation (AO)..the El Nino southern Oscillation (ENSO) the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) along with 4 prefered analog years with similar weather patterns. The graphic is based on NOAA ESRL data and this is what I expect the temperature departure from normals to resemble for this meteorological summer..which is June through August!


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Re: Long Range Summer 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-05-19, 1:54 pm

going by the map looks like avg summer.
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Re: Long Range Summer 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-05-24, 8:42 pm

TWC shows JJA cooler than normal. That would be great news if it happen. wash
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Re: Long Range Summer 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-05-25, 7:19 am

Of course there will be plenty of 90 plus weather am sure. Maybe, just maybe no 100 degree plus this year. Well let's hope so. Low 90's would be fine with less humid conditions. smoke
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Re: Long Range Summer 2013

Post by etnwx on 2013-05-25, 4:04 pm

windstorm wrote:Of course there will be plenty of 90 plus weather am sure. Maybe, just maybe no 100 degree plus this year. Well let's hope so. Low 90's would be fine with less humid conditions. smoke

Amen brother!

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