WRF cast
Satellite Loop
Current Watches
Current Snow Cover
Conus Radar
Regional Radar
Tennessee Radar
SE RADAR
Enlarge
24 hr Temp change
Current MDs
Regional Temps
Conus Temps
Current CPC NAO and forecast
Top posters
Toot (6644)
 
Stovepipe (4148)
 
Adam2014 (1424)
 
tennessee storm09 (1302)
 
Jed33 (930)
 
windstorm (891)
 
John1122 (885)
 
snowdog (855)
 
Homemommy (824)
 
WxFreak (812)
 


Early, Early Winter 2013/14

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Early, Early Winter 2013/14

Post by windstorm on 2013-06-16, 11:12 pm

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179


avatar
windstorm
Member

Posts : 891
Join date : 2012-03-26
Location : Harrison, tn

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Early, Early Winter 2013/14

Post by Toot on 2013-10-12, 10:55 am

I had planned on releasing sort of a sneak peak winter outlook today but I have decided that there is still way too much uncertainty to do so this early in the game! However..I will go ahead and talk about some important factors that will be in play this winter.

If you have followed me for any amount of time you would know that I place more importance on the Arctic Oscillation (AO) than I do anything when determining long range winter weather values. Lets just say that the Arctic Oscillation is behaving like an unpredictable teenager where you dont know what he or she might try to pull over the next few weeks!

The Arctic Oscillation started out positive for the month of October but has since turned negative. If you're rooting for a cold and snowy winter you want to see a deeply negative Arctic Oscillation this time of year and we could currently be heading in that direction. This is the wildcard that could turn what would probably be a warmer winter into that of a colder one here in the eastern US. This is the main reason I have decided to hold off on any type of graphical outlook for now!

When you look at this winters past analogs using several different variables they will mostly argue for average to above average temps in the eastern US but analogs cant always be trusted! I still see some forecasters suggesting that a weak El Nino is coming this winter which would strongly argue for a colder winter but we have now run out of time for that to happen.

Let me just go ahead and say there will be no weak El Nino this winter! I expect neutral ENSO conditions during December January and Febuary. This means that ENSO will not have a big influence thus allowing other things to control the weather pattern over North America during boreal winter.

With that said.. I am convinced that this winter will not be brutally cold in the southeastern US. The +QBO (Quasi Biennial Oscillation) will make sure of that. If you are truly looking for a brutally cold winter here in the east you would want to see a negative QBO and thats just not the case this season. There will likely be Arctic intrusions from time to time but I also expect to see a southeast ridge from time to time too.

At this point I expect to see a variable type of winter weather pattern across the eastern US with lots of temperature swings sometimes very warm and sometimes very cold! I dont expect to see sustained warmth or sustained Arctic cold to take hold of the eastern US for any long period of time. But that doesnt mean there wont be snow!! There is alot of unused energy sitting atop the gulf stream in the Atlantic this year being that there havent been any strong tropical cyclones to use it up. That leads me to believe there will be a some intense snowstorms this year in the east that will tap into this unused energy and these could also happen very early in the winter!

Anyways..thats enough rambling for me this morning. I will do a final update on my winter thoughts towards Halloween.

_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Early, Early Winter 2013/14

Post by Toot on 2013-11-21, 10:05 am


_________________
My Blog
avatar
Toot
La Vida Loca

Posts : 6644
Join date : 2011-12-05
Location : Cocke County, TN

View user profile http://www.facebook.com/Wxeast

Back to top Go down

Re: Early, Early Winter 2013/14

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

View previous topic View next topic Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum