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Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2013-06-28, 6:57 am

Very impressive Reb!

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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by VFL on 2013-06-28, 9:28 am

Was that pic taken in the afternoon around 830, 9? Also I forgot to post this pic I took at a friends house off 129 in Blount co. about 3 weeks ago. I showed Mike Witcher and he thought it was pretty cool.

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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by Toot on 2013-06-29, 9:59 am

^^Looks like a supercell/mesocyclone VFL!!





Meanwhile..the death ridge bites down hard on the southwest!

Near record heat in the desert southwest means actual temperatures around 130 degrees in some areas. Yes you read that correctly..the Death Valley/Furnace Creek areas actual forecast high temperature is 129 over the next couple of days.

The hottest temperature on earth ever reliably recorded was taken there nearly 100 years ago! On July 10th, 1913 A weather observer at the Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, California recorded an actual high temperature of 134°F!

Below is forecast highs by the NWS in Las Vegas overlayed onto a MOS guidance temperature graphic. Notice the green color in the Death Valley area..that represents upper 120's to lower 130's!! Excessive heat warnings are already in effect for these areas.

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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by windstorm on 2013-07-01, 8:09 pm

What a Face Up coming week of the 4th look wet for most of the week.. It is upon us.http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif
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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by Grandpa Nasty on 2013-07-02, 3:26 pm

windstorm wrote:What a Face Up coming week of the 4th look wet for most of the week.. It is upon us.http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

Yep Wind, looks like a total wash. Going to plan B. Move smokers from patio and put under carport. Crank it up around 5pm Wed. and watch it do its thing. Smoking 4 racks of ribs, 10 pounds of pork shoulder and 2 chickens with a can of beer up their ass. Smoker #2 will be for taters, corn and smoked beans.

Also, what better way to enjoy beer than mindlessly staring at a smoker for 7 hours!

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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by windstorm on 2013-07-02, 6:07 pm

Sounds like you have a plan. I watch local weather on channel 9 and David show as much as 4.21 inches for the next 2 to 3 days. Got my grass cut today so let it rain. Happy 4th to everyone on the weather forum.hurry 
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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-07-02, 6:14 pm

Grandpa Nasty wrote:
windstorm wrote:What a Face Up coming week of the 4th look wet for most of the week.. It is upon us.http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

Yep Wind, looks like a total wash. Going to plan B. Move smokers from patio and put under carport. Crank it up around 5pm Wed. and watch it do its thing. Smoking 4 racks of ribs, 10 pounds of pork shoulder and  2 chickens with a can of  beer up their ass. Smoker #2 will be for taters, corn and smoked beans.

Also, what better way to enjoy beer than mindlessly staring at a smoker for 7 hours!
lmao grandpa, sound good to me buddy... by the way, frankie has a vid out for this heavy rain event for tennessee this week. hopefully toot can find it and paste it for all of us to enjoy. LOL

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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by Toot on 2013-07-02, 7:43 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote: hopefully toot can find it and paste it for all of us to enjoy.  LOL

LMAO..seen it hours ago!!


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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2013-07-03, 10:28 am

MRX getting technical this morning using geographical descriptions that I'm not familiar with? Anyone know where these places are?

MINOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM TALC AND CLIMAX. UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET AROUND 35 KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WILL LEAD TO SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW WEST OF THE ROSELINE INTO EXTREME E TN VALLEY. ALL MODEL QPF DEPICTING MINIMUMS IN EXPECTED RAINFALL
FROM THE LOWER GASMAN UP TO THE TRI CITIES AREA. CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
SHADOW NOT ENOUGH TO REMOVE THESE AREAS FROM FLOOD WATCH. DAMPENING
UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVING NE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE OH VALLEY.
THIS DRAWS PEAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.00 IN AN UP VALLEY FLOW
THROUGH THE E TN VALLEY. INCREASED POPS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
GROWING CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM DEEP CONVECTION.


Last edited by Jed33 on 2013-07-03, 10:28 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : spacing issues)

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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by 1234snow on 2013-07-03, 12:32 pm

Jed33 wrote:MRX getting technical this morning using geographical descriptions that I'm not familiar with? Anyone know where these places are?

MINOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM TALC AND CLIMAX. UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET AROUND 35 KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WILL LEAD TO SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW WEST OF THE ROSELINE INTO EXTREME E TN VALLEY. ALL MODEL QPF DEPICTING MINIMUMS IN EXPECTED RAINFALL
FROM THE LOWER GASMAN UP TO THE TRI CITIES AREA. CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
SHADOW NOT ENOUGH TO REMOVE THESE AREAS FROM FLOOD WATCH. DAMPENING
UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVING NE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE OH VALLEY.
THIS DRAWS PEAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.00 IN AN UP VALLEY FLOW
THROUGH THE E TN VALLEY. INCREASED POPS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
GROWING CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM DEEP CONVECTION.

I was wondering that too! I couldn't find any of those places on the map. They've never been that technical before so why start now. But I do know that the water hose is lined up today all the way to the Gulf Coast. I do think that places from Morristown and going northeast that the flooding threat won't be as bad due to downsloping but further southwest this could get ugly.

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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by Toot on 2013-07-03, 6:27 pm

Sheesh..those must be MRX only terms. They are definately not actual cities or townships as eveident by the word "The" in front of them. First thing that comes to my mind is that "The Roseline" is some kind of imaginary line MRX made up and "The Lower Gasman" is a mountain somewhere along the NC/TN border but these are just guesses after reading the AFD scratch

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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by VFL on 2013-07-04, 2:08 pm

Funny that those areas that MRX was talking about getting less rain ended up being the big winners. 1.75" in the Tri Cities area was common up to 2.25" on Roan Mountian.
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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2013-07-05, 12:12 pm

Yeah, VFL, I'd agree forecasting has been rough here lately. Nothing has worked out the way it has been forecasted, including temps. Which were looking to go above normal, but now that appears to not be the case. I'd rather have the rain than the drought though, so I won't complain too much about the daily barrage of rain. Just would like a little more sun to at least heat the pool up before summer is over, lol. Yesterday, the water temp at my in laws in Bristol was 77 degrees. It's July, not late April or early May, lol.

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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by Toot on 2013-07-06, 2:32 am

Geez...not sure I ever recall such a long duration rain event and just as tropical as all get out. The huge drops of rain woke me up around 2AM and I couldnt help but notice how humid and sticky it was. If I didnt know any better I would think I were in Belize or Costa Rica somewhere!

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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by Toot on 2013-07-06, 4:09 pm

Taken from blog on the pattern reload


*Death Ridge to intensify and build eastward into the central US*

Over the next several days the weather pattern will begin to reload as a strong and stubborn subtropical ridge of high pressure located in the western United States begins to intensify and slowly build eastward. This will push the stagnant upper level trough of lower pressure out of the eastern US carrying the abundant tropical moisture with it.

Things will begin to heat up from west to east allowing the atmosphere over the eastern US to destabilize for another round of severe weather via a mesoscale convective system train that will form out of the northwest flow. Afterwards...I would then look for another very wet weather pattern to develop in the east once again. Sound familiar?


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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by windstorm on 2013-07-06, 5:25 pm

Well since we are a good 2 weeks into summer now for this month i have had 5 inches of rain with more to come this evening and overnight. Here a little info about the sun. This is call the SAolar Noon.... Solar noon is the actual moment that the sun transits the meridian at a given location on earth. It is the moment when the sun reaches its highest elevation on a given day at a given place. This will not necessarily happen at the moment of 12 noon measured by standard time. Time zones are more than a thousand miles wide at the equator, and standard time is the same throughout the entire time zone. The sun can't be at its highest point all across a thousand miles of equator at the same moment.hurry 
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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by John1122 on 2013-07-07, 3:00 am

5.5 inches of rain so far with my driveway washed out and the road in front of the house a full blown creek. Still pouring down out there right now.

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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by John1122 on 2013-07-07, 3:02 am

Also, the high here today was 66 degrees. That is probably close to a low max temp for the date.

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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2013-07-07, 8:02 am

4 day rainfall total so far stands at 1.4in. I would imagine this is one of the lowest totals in E TN, but that's not a bad thing. Downsloping has really put the squeeze on precip coming this way. It's rained everyday, but have not had more than .4 on any given day. We'll see what happens today, may end up getting the most of any day, today.

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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by windstorm on 2013-07-07, 12:53 pm

In the first 7 days of the month i have 6.25 inches of rain. 2.61 yesterday. And raining again this morning. Check this out::::http://www.weather.com/news/two-feet-hail-new-mexico-town-20130704wash 
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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by windstorm on 2013-07-07, 6:23 pm

Still a good part of July looks wet.
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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by Jed33 on 2013-07-07, 7:53 pm

Just as I figured, today brought the most rain of any day so far for me. I picked up .66 in today, which has brought my 4 day total up to 2.06 in. Still a far cry from what some of ya'll got, but a pretty wet period still, nonetheless.

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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by Toot on 2013-07-08, 6:34 pm

Due to the copious amounts of rainfall the region has recieved over the past few weeks Tennessee valley authority's "Fontana Dam" (Used to make electricity) in North Carolina spilled water at its 2nd highest flow rate ever! 127,500 gallons per second!! Below is an awesome areal photo taken yesterday of the spillway

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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by Toot on 2013-07-09, 7:58 pm

Expecting some strong to severe storms over most of the state late tomorrow night into the wee hours of the morning Thursday!

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Re: Summer 2013 Weather Discussion

Post by windstorm on 2013-07-17, 7:56 am

Well we have made it to the middle of July. Meaning i am starting my count down clock till fall. These are what they call the lazy days of summer. I have had rain ever day this month, but for 2 days. I have now record 7.13 inches of rain in July so far.
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