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TS Dorian

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TS Dorian

Post by Toot on 2013-07-25, 6:40 pm

Tropical Storm Dorian formed a couple days ago and is currently in the central Atlantic with winds of 60MPH and a minimum central pressure of 999Mb. Hurricane models continue to trend ever so slightly south and I would expect that trend to continue the next day or so. The Bermuda high is holding strong but its still up in the air to whether Dorian gets into the gulf of Mexico or if it recurves in close to the east coast.

Right now I sort of lean towards an eastern gulf storm with the possibilty of impacts in the southeastern states IF (and thats a big if) it survives the many miles it has to travel. Its still quite early in the season and conditions arent as favorable this time of year as they would be in late August or early September. That said..Dorian hasnt had much trouble fighting off some cooler water..dry air..and a little wind shear. If he dont run into Hispaniola he could certainly be trouble

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Re: TS Dorian

Post by Toot on 2013-07-27, 1:56 pm

Afternoon weather nerds beer 

Poor old TS Dorian is really struggling to hold on to tropical cyclone status. It wouldnt surprise me to see him downgraded to just an open tropical wave by tonight! The National Hurricane center is still calling it a Tropical storm with winds of 40 MPH but I would currently argue that its barely even a tropical depression with winds much weaker as it continues to show weakening.

His problem is the dry air thats out in front of him and he's been cutoff from the moist flow from the south. As of now I expect him to be downgraded to a depression before the day is out and maybe even just a tropical wave by tonight! However..that doesnt mean that he wont regain some organization as he moves into the Bahamas where conditions could be much more favorable. Until then..below is a water vapor image showing the dry air he's battling out in front of him and his very poor organization.



My blog forecast for this system

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Re: TS Dorian

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-07-28, 8:37 am

though still bit early, this trpoical season is becoming a big joke... surely dr. gray will revise his predictons to be wal lower than first thought... as long as troughs are in east like we are seeiing...they will just beat down any legit threat along eastern and gulf coast...Very Happy 

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Re: TS Dorian

Post by Toot on 2013-07-28, 9:03 am

tennessee storm09 wrote:though still bit early, this tropical season is becoming a big joke...  

LOL.. Bruce were already way above normal ..we have already had 4 named storms and its not even August. Usually you dont get your first named storm until late July. During the hyper active season of 2005 we got our E named strom right at the last of July. The season is off to VERY active start.

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Re: TS Dorian

Post by Toot on 2013-07-28, 3:52 pm

The remnants of TS Dorian is quickly reorganizing as we speak. An upper level anticyclone is locating itself over top the center of circulation which will help him fight off shear and as a matter of fact an eyewall could possibly be forming right now according to microwave and visible satellite imagery.

I expect this is all due to a TUTT low that Dorian is moving in on. The TUTT low will aid in locating the the higher cloud top convection around the center of circulation. I expect an upgrade to Tropical storm status before the day is over. The enviroment that Dorian will be entering is much more favorable for more organization.

I dont want to say for sure but we might get our first Hurricane of the season out of this as it gets closer to the Bahamas. I realize the National hurricane center is not calling for that but the data that I am seeing suggests its very possible. All interests in the coastal regions of the southeastern US should pay close attention to this system today and tomorrow.

Below you can see the convection beginning to wrap around the COC and this could be the start of an eyewall. Time will tell

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Re: TS Dorian

Post by Toot on 2013-07-29, 9:17 am

Dorian will likley be upgraded to a Tropical storm again before the day is over. Here is a satellite shot showing him developing a nice CDO over his center of circulation and model projections of where he is headed.

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