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Early fall likely this year

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Early fall likely this year

Post by Toot on 2013-07-27, 3:36 pm

Synoptic patterns and cycles suggest a very early fall this year. The jet stream just never seemed to get far enough north to its usual summer time position and because of that it will sink back south to its fall position a little earlier than normal. Here is the euro model getting this started the first of August.



Colder wx and stronger fronts with more bite to them cant be far behind!!

CFS temp departures from normal for august

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Re: Early fall likely this year

Post by windstorm on 2013-07-27, 10:58 pm

Sounds good to me. Next month starts college football on the 29th.
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Re: Early fall likely this year

Post by snowtaco on 2013-07-31, 11:55 pm

sounds good to me! I love the cooler weather! maybe it will make for some better hunting this year, did not have very good luck last fall/winter. only got 3 squirrels and no deer.

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Re: Early fall likely this year

Post by Toot on 2013-08-01, 8:57 am

snowtaco wrote:sounds good to me! I love the cooler weather! maybe it will make for some better hunting this year, did not have very good luck last fall/winter. only got 3 squirrels and no deer.
What kind of hunting you do, taco?

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Re: Early fall likely this year

Post by snowtaco on 2013-08-01, 4:53 pm

Toot wrote:
snowtaco wrote:sounds good to me! I love the cooler weather! maybe it will make for some better hunting this year, did not have very good luck last fall/winter. only got 3 squirrels and no deer.
What kind of hunting you do, taco?
mostly deer and squirrel, i’ll get a rabbit if i see one squirrel hunting, but don’t have any dogs don’t do much rabbit hunting. been turkey hunting a few times. and of course me and dad eat everything we get.

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Re: Early fall likely this year

Post by Toot on 2013-08-05, 7:40 am

Just as I said in my fall outlook that I expect fall to get started very early this year. Well,,the GFS is advertising a significant cold front in the extended range (mid august) that would cool the whole eastern US down and the weather would certainly feel very fall like IF (thats a big if) the GFS verifies! This is a little over a week away!


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Re: Early fall likely this year

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-08-05, 11:51 am

Toot wrote:Just as I said in my fall outlook that I expect fall to get started very early this year. Well,,the GFS is advertising a significant cold front in the extended range (mid august) that would cool the whole eastern US down and the weather would certainly feel very fall like IF (thats a big if) the GFS verifies! This is a little over a week away!

yeah, the euro is starting to jump on also... mid august big cool down... as a more defined nw flow pattern takes hold... wow , if this pattern contiinues through winter

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Re: Early fall likely this year

Post by windstorm on 2013-08-05, 7:32 pm

I think we will have trouble if it keeps toward a cool fall. Am afraid this may turn out to be a mild/warm winter. I Hope am wrong. This is not a prediction yet. But not liking the way the cards are stacking up.
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Re: Early fall likely this year

Post by Jed33 on 2013-08-05, 8:29 pm

Lol, poor ole Memphis remains warmer than anywhere else in the state of course. 66 is even warmer than we've been having here lately. At least it's not as warm as Tupelo low of 72. I can't remember being that warm for a low anytime this whole summer! It's just plain hot this time of year down there. Sure don't miss that.

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Re: Early fall likely this year

Post by Toot on 2013-08-05, 9:27 pm

windstorm wrote:I think we will have trouble if it keeps toward a cool fall. Am afraid  this may turn out to be a mild/warm winter. I Hope am wrong. This is not a prediction yet. But not liking the way the cards are stacking up.
The cards are definately stacked against a cold winter! Not impossible to pull it off under these conditions..the cards were stacked against the winter of 2010/11 too but that winter turned out frigid

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Re: Early fall likely this year

Post by windstorm on 2013-08-06, 12:06 pm

This is about 2 weeks old. Not sure where to put it. Please move it if not the right place.  http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/07/cfs-consistently-showing-cold-winter.htmlfacepalm
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Re: Early fall likely this year

Post by Toot on 2013-08-06, 5:18 pm

LOL..Andrew calls for a cold winter every year!

Actually the CFS is not showing a cold winter AT ALL!!!

I know alot of you are not going to like this post but the CFS (The American Seasonal computer model) continues to trend towards the JAMSTECS (Japanese seasonal model) idea of a warm winter almost nationwide! The CFS was showing a cold upcoming winter for a while but its now picking up on that +QBO and the overall temps reflected continue to be on the rise for the winter season.

The latest run of the CFS shows a warmer than normal winter almost nationwide which is in line with the JAMSTEC and WXeasterns historical analog research on +QBO years with extremely wet summers in the eastern US.

At this point im definately leaning towards a warmer winter this year but its still extremely early and atmospheric conditions can and will change but I just dont know how much they will change. The good thing is.. you can still get major snow storms during warm winters  

Below is the latest run of the CFS showing the toasty like winter

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Re: Early fall likely this year

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-08-06, 5:57 pm

Toot wrote:LOL..Andrew calls for a cold winter every year!

Actually the CFS is not showing a cold winter AT ALL!!!

I know alot of you are not going to like this post but the CFS (The American Seasonal computer model) continues to trend towards the JAMSTECS (Japanese seasonal model) idea of a warm winter almost nationwide! The CFS was showing a cold upcoming winter for a while but its now picking up on that +QBO and the overall temps reflected continue to be on the rise for the winter season.

The latest run of the CFS shows a warmer than normal winter almost nationwide which is in line with the JAMSTEC and WXeasterns historical analog research on +QBO years with extremely wet summers in the eastern US.

At this point im definately leaning towards a warmer winter this year but its still extremely early and atmospheric conditions can and will change but I just dont know how much they will change. The good thing is.. you can still get major snow storms during warm winters  

Below is the latest run of the CFS showing the toasty like winter
you can alsao get some nice severe weather outbreaks during a warm winter... but i still think its little to early to predict

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Re: Early fall likely this year

Post by Toot on 2013-08-06, 6:15 pm

tennessee storm09 wrote:
you can alsao get some nice severe weather outbreaks during a warm winter... but i still think its little to early to predict
yeah its WAYY too early to predict/forecast or put out a winter outlook! What im showing with the above post is a trend in seasonal guidance models that is supported by my own historical analog research regarding +QBO years with extremely wet summers in the eastern US. All those analog years show the same warm winter almost nationwide.

JAMSTEC looks quite similar


But like I said earlier atmospheric conditions can change quickly but there is quite a bit of support for a warmer than normal winter this year. Even if it is a warm winter..you can still get a monster snow storm...so snow lovers no need to panic beer

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Re: Early fall likely this year

Post by wxgeek on 2013-08-08, 11:16 pm

Bastardi likes a colder winter based on the sun cycle and the solar magnetic field flipping in ~4 months. I've been watching him for years and he's usually not far off.

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/2593834248001/colder-weather-coming/

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Re: Early fall likely this year

Post by Toot on 2013-08-08, 11:55 pm

wxgeek wrote:  I've been watching him for years and he's usually not far off.  

LMAO..we must be watching two different Bastardis. Here is his winter forecast last winter...which was exactly opposite of what really verified. His winter track record is horrible:lol!: 




however..Last year most everyone (Including me) busted due to the SAI index suggesting a cold and snowy in the east. But he busts about every year seriously. Just gtoogle them asnd compare to actual data if you dont believe me. He hit the record cold/snowy 96 winter on the head and has been thought of as a great long range winter god since then but his verification rates are pretty bad, However his hurricane season track record is better than NOAAs by a long shot beer

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Re: Early fall likely this year

Post by windstorm on 2013-08-09, 9:39 am

Anyone remember the women that made weather predictions for Tennessee ? She live up around Crab Orchard, Tn. I think she became well know for her 1959 winter forecast. Crab  Orchard, Tn. is near Crossville. I ask one of the Crossville news paper guy's what happen to her, but of course she pass away some time back. She would release her winter forecast to News Papers around Tenn including Chattanooga. She was a person that made winter prediction by watch things like how many fogs in August, thick or thin skins on corn, spiders building there web high or low, you get the ideal. But the News Paper guy from Crossville said that her daughter still does this. I guess she still alive .. Anyone remember her ? I think her first name was Helen .wash 
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Re: Early fall likely this year

Post by Toot on 2013-08-10, 8:22 pm

There is a thread on this forum about her somewhere..will have to dig it up and provide a link when I get time

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Re: Early fall likely this year

Post by windstorm on 2013-08-11, 8:34 am

I think am going to write the Crossville news paper again and see if i can find out if her daughter is still making forecasts for winter.
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Re: Early fall likely this year

Post by windstorm on 2013-08-11, 9:01 am

He is a write up of her and her daughter in 2010 making a winter forecast.http://crossville-chronicle.com/local/x1637968309/Bundle-up
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