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Fall 2013 seasonal outlook

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Fall 2013 seasonal outlook

Post by Toot on 2013-07-28, 9:43 am

Its getting close to that time of year again and everyone is looking forward to the fall season and cooler weather. This outlook is based on three analogs (1967 1994 and 2004) which best matched the current and previous weather pattern over the last few months. These are also neutral ENSO analogs as this fall is also exspected to be a neutral ENSO. This outlook also takes in consideration the QBO/NAO/AO/PNA values and their past behavior and forecasts of where these oscillations are headed. Some seasonal model guidance (CFSV2 and JAMSTEC) were also inserted into this outlook.

Since the mid latitude jet stream never really retreated far enough north to its normal summer position and we are past the mid summer point the mid lat jet will also sag back southward much earlier than your normal fall season. In theory this will start the fall weather season much earlier than normal.

I expect Fall like weather to take hold by late Aug/early Sept. Below is my graphical outlook based on all the above. Enjoy and thanks for reading.



Temps


Precip (Typo correction-The grey area in the PAC NW should read above normal instead of below)


Last edited by Toot on 2013-07-28, 11:33 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Fall 2013 seasonal outlook

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-07-28, 10:05 am

Toot wrote:Its getting close to that time of year again and everyone is looking forward to the fall season and cooler weather. This outlook is based on three analogs that best matched the current and previous weather pattern over the last few months. It also takes in consideration the ONI/ENSO/QBO/NAO/AO/PNA values..behavior and forecasts of where these oscillations are headed.

Some seasonal model guidance (CFSV2 and JAMSTEC) was also inserted into this outlook. Since the mid latitude jet stream never really retreated far enough north to its normal summer position and we are past the mid summer point the jet will also sag back southward much earlier than your normal fall season. In theory this will start the fall weather season at least a month early.

I expect Fall like weather to take hold by late August. Below is my graphical outlook based on all the above. Enjoy and thanks for reading.



Temps


Precip (Typo correction-The grey area in the PAC NW should read above normal instead of below)
now toot, i will agree with you on this buddy... no doubt. LOL

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Re: Fall 2013 seasonal outlook

Post by windstorm on 2013-07-31, 8:16 am

I know this is a early fall outlook which would be great if it pans out. I love cool fall mornings and cool fall day's where the sky is so blue. But my gut is trying to tell me it will be a mild to warm winter. I have nothing to back this up so this is just a feeling i have for the up coming winter. I may put out a winter outlook myself around mid to late October. Hope my gut gets to feeling better at this winter. It will be fun to forecast this up coming winter. We will keep looking for more signs that may turn it around for me.wash 
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Re: Fall 2013 seasonal outlook

Post by Toot on 2013-07-31, 9:11 am

Im leaning towards a warm December based on current data but since Dec is 4-5 months away that data has plenty of time to change. If I had to make a winter forecast right now I would call for a warm december..a near to above normal January and a colder than normal Febuary. But this is just pure speculation at this point

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