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Fall WX Discussion 2013

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Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-08-22, 7:27 pm

The beginning of Meteorlogical fall is less than 10 days away so I figured I would get our first cold season discussion thread going..Hooooray!! pals 

Perhaps one of the coldest Septembers in many years could be on the way for the eastern U.S. This looks to be driven by ridging in the west (PNA) and some slight high latitude blocking near Greenland (NAO). This really has no bearing on the upcoming winter weather pattern but none the less will continue to monitor these signals over the next couple of weeks. Below is an image of the CFS seasonal guidance model depicting the core of the cold in the Mid Atlantic states by the second week of September. Brrrrr!!


Last edited by Toot on 2014-03-30, 6:56 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-08-23, 1:51 pm

One thing i do remember in 09 fall was very cool and we had a great winter with over a foot of snow that year. But am not saying the same thing will happen again. Just about the time weatherman think they have it figure out, the weather always throws them a curve ball. We just watch,wait, and see because there nothing we can do anyway. P.S. Short note, EURO model is forecasting active things beginning to happen for all the Hurricane lovers about the first week in Sept. Maybe something in the GOM. But you know how that goes. Have a good day, am out of here.wash 
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by VFL on 2013-08-23, 3:19 pm

Me likey. I'll be able to redo my yard a little earlier than normal this year as ground temps are lower and the soil is obviously saturated.
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-09-05, 6:40 pm

The last couple of runs of the Euro is advertising the first "stronger" cold front of the season!

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-09-06, 1:21 pm

How far out is this Toot ? Thanks..
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Jscentraltn on 2013-09-06, 3:32 pm

It is the front coming in next Thursday! Looks pretty cool next fri! Very Happy 

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-09-06, 8:59 pm

I will take it. Thanks...
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-09-07, 3:56 pm

We are talking about next weekend with the cold front. Probably not as strong as first advertised but its still gonna be fall like in terms of the way the airmass feels. Out ahead of it might get pretty warm tho with the stronger sw winds near teh surface

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-09-11, 5:51 pm

Sat/Sun lows from the GFS..lol probably a lil too cold but its fixing to cooldown in a big way!!

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-09-12, 12:24 pm

There forecasting 50's to low 60's here for morning lows. Wonder if the high Mts of E Tenn,/NC could be in for there first frost. ???popcorn 
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-09-12, 4:50 pm

windstorm wrote:There forecasting 50's to low 60's here for morning lows. Wonder if the high Mts of E Tenn,/NC could be in for there first frost. ???popcorn 
The places that could possibly get cold enough for frost (highest peaks of the Smokys) would likely have too much wind for frost to occur. Im probably gonna hit the upper 40's here in NE TN Saturday night/Sunday morning. If it happens it will be the first time ive seen a 40 degree reading since spring I guess. Time to get the weather station ready for the cold season hurry

Here is what the 4km NAM says lows will be saturday

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-09-12, 7:00 pm

Now they are saying lows in the 50's and highs in the upper 70's to low 80's. Big change from this month to last month. Only rain one time this month which was about .30 of and inch. There is a 50 to 60 % chance tonight as the cold front begins to bring in the cooler weather for the weekend. I would not be surprise to see in the high mts 30 something degrees at the highest points maybe Saturday night into Sunday night. As you said wind would be the only thing or cloud cover to keep any frost from forming.
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Jed33 on 2013-09-13, 6:53 am

I'm looking forward to the first true"fall-like" airmass coming in! I jumped the gun earlier this month when I said I didn't think we'd hit 90 again. I was wrong, as we did twice , although, we only barely cracked it with a 91 and 90 reading. I lost track somewhere of the number of 90s days this year, but I know its low. Anyway, hoir .98 in of rain yesterday evening courtesy of a very nice thunderstorm, it was vetting kinda dry around here. I hope to hit at least 48 here this weekend, and 70s for highs-can't beat that. Here's to a fantastic weekend, and upcoming fall!

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-09-13, 2:59 pm

Well, we were going to get rain last night. Saw it on radar as it was coming across the Mts and it just dry up. I think i got 100 rain drops. If we go back into the 90's after this cool down for maybe 4 or 5 days we will have more 90 degree days this month than all summer. We may have more now. I will have to check. Have a good weekend everyone.
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-09-14, 10:43 am

Some very chilly readings were recorded early this morning across the region and current temps are still running 10-15 degrees below normal! Should make for a great day of Football if you like that sort of thing. Mt. Leconte recorded a low temperature of 34 degrees overnight! The clear fall skies also made made for a beautiful sunrise from Leconte this morning

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-09-16, 9:14 am

At 34 i bet you could find frost up there. Just by looking at the trees, i do not see them moving. So at least some frost here and there.
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-09-18, 7:01 pm

--Major changes in the weather pattern to occur over the next couple of weeks--

Big changes are on the way in the weather department..the overall longwave weather pattern across the CONUS will become MUCH more amplified over the next couple of weeks. Frequent and drastic temperature swings will be the name of the game as the whole shabang shifts from a stagnant and summer like weather pattern to more of an up and down fall like weather pattern.

There is talk of a tropical system in the gulf of Mexico this coming weekend but I dont expect anything really organized and I dont expect the low pressure system to stay tropical very long as the storm center will begin to mingle very quickly with an impressive cold front! I think the bigger story here will be strong to severe storms out ahead and along this cold front that a vigorous mid latitude low pressure system drags through the eastern US.

With that said..I think there is the possibility of a Hurricane near the southeastern states towards the end of September but we can talk about that later!

Below is the Canadian guidance model showing an impressive weather pattern as early as this weekend!

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Mrgolf on 2013-09-18, 8:38 pm

Toot, im ready for fall like weather to be honest with you! It hasnt been as hot as the last few summers and tropical activity hasnt been there either. Lots of dry air in the atlantic imo impeding development, esp compared to previous seasons. I know this is the fall weather thread, but toot pay close attention to gulf of alaska and western canada. If the anomolous warm waters persist, it could get real cold at times this winter, but if not then it wont lol. Sometimes forecasters overlook that aspect. Obviously, we want to see a ao and nao that are negative, esp WEST BASED on the nao.

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Jed33 on 2013-09-18, 9:32 pm

It already feels like Fall here in upper E TN, has consistently been in the 70s for highs since the weekend, today when the showers moved through the temp fell back into the 60s, and didnt recover. I am also itching for those cool nights. So far, not but a few nights have been in the 40s, like only 2, but I imagine that will be changing soon.

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-09-19, 1:39 pm

There are leaves beginning to change colors down here already. Like Jed33 said, i know this is a fall thread but i hear a lot of people talking about a dry winter, which is not good if this happens. I would say more about it but this is a fall thread. Got to go. Out of here.
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-09-21, 10:30 am

Good rain today. Has not rain in about 3 weeks here other than a few drops here and there. Already at 1.20 of and inch. With a few more hours of rainfall. NWS thinking is it should be over by 1730Z or 5:30 P.M. in the Chattanooga/Harrison area. I think it will be sooner than this.popcorn 
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-09-21, 11:47 am

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/ This is for October. Even if it has us in a EC chance, am thinking mild to warm October. Hope i am wrong.
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by etnwx on 2013-09-21, 12:12 pm

2.35" by noon today. 3.82" for the month so far. Looks like we'll have around average rainfall for September after a below average August.

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by etnwx on 2013-09-22, 1:16 am

Saturday's totals: 2.65" and 4.11" so far for the month.

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-09-22, 10:16 pm

Anyone notice the snow out in Colorado this evening? A strong storm system is causing severe storms and flooding in some areas of Colorado but some of the higher elevations are just cold enough to be getting mixed precip and/or snow showers. Another reminder that old man winter is not far behind!

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