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Fall WX Discussion 2013

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-11-04, 9:25 am

Toot wrote:Good mornin wx nerds and those who genrally just like to argue about the weather. There will be one more strong cold front before a strong mid November warmup commences!

However I dont expect the warmup to last very long before Old Man winter blows in to stay! So.. since this is likely the last warm weather you will see for many months you may want to enjoy it.


Above is the American model (GFS) showing the warm temps moving in mid month with temps anywhere from 8-15 degrees above normal!
starting to see signs of a major storm system mid month, with warm temps out ahead of it, should provide juice for a severe weather event... then it backs down quite a bit with trough over east up until end of month... but models super long range want to dvelop a low over alaska, that would put us in a milder pattern over the east by the first week of december... we c how things evolve

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-11-10, 1:09 pm

LAWDY LAWDY... look at the 0z euro and cmc... what a big bomb on end run of the models... plenty of juice out ahead with a major artic blast following it...

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-11-10, 7:15 pm

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-11-10, 7:17 pm

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-11-13, 12:53 am

Nocturnal lows overnight via the high resolution rapid refresh model! Better throw an extra log on the fire before I go to bed...Brrrrrr especially for mid Nov!!

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-11-13, 7:01 am

Winds stay up most of the night with 15 to 20 mph. Low as of 7:00 A.M. 27.9 may go down just a little more. Should be a little colder tonight with lighter winds. Winds last night as of 8:30 P.M. were gusting to 30 plus.
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Jed33 on 2013-11-13, 7:10 am

22 here this morning-coldest so far for sure. However, I think tonight may be colder, as well, windstorm.

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-11-13, 8:03 am

Jed33 wrote:22 here this morning-coldest so far for sure. However, I think tonight may be colder, as well, windstorm.
I had 21 on my wx station this morning for my low temp..expecting to hit the teens for nocturnal lows overnight tonight cold 

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by etnwx on 2013-11-13, 10:09 am

Low of 21.4 this morning.

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by John1122 on 2013-11-13, 1:32 pm

18 degrees this morning, one of the coldest nights this early in November that I can recall. I expect warmer readings tonight. 21-23 probably.

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-11-14, 7:03 am

Low this morning IMBY was 21 coldest so far.cold 
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-11-14, 8:14 am

Went down to 19 overnight...first night this season that I hit the teens and its awful early for that shit!

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Jed33 on 2013-11-14, 9:04 am

Yep, I hit 19 also Toot. Prwtty crazy for november

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by John1122 on 2013-11-14, 4:53 pm

TWC is saying a wide spread severe event is on tap.

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by etnwx on 2013-11-14, 9:30 pm

19.7 here. Insane, but loving it.

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by VFL on 2013-11-15, 9:55 am

John1122 wrote:TWC is saying a wide spread severe event is on tap.
When?
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by John1122 on 2013-11-15, 11:40 am

Sunday, they show the western 2/3rds of the state in their severe section.



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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-11-16, 9:13 pm


A strong shortwave will push another arctic front across the eastern U.S this weekend whilst it becomes very negatively tilted before it ejects itself off the northeastern coastline!

The potential exists for a widespread and long lived damaging wind event with a few Tornados possible if cells can fire out ahead of the mid latitude cyclones squall line. As the line(s) become more linear the tornado chances will become alot less likley (Mainly weak and embedded quick spinups) with damaging winds being the main threat mode


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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by VFL on 2013-11-16, 10:35 pm

MRX is starting to get a bit bullish with their last update. Weird that this has seemed to creep up on us, atleast it did me.
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by jmundie on 2013-11-18, 10:48 am

Toot -

You only missed the highest risk area by about 400 miles.

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-11-18, 3:52 pm

jmundie wrote:Toot -
You only missed the highest risk area by about 400 miles.
Toot wrote:

I think I did just fine Mundie!

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by jmundie on 2013-11-18, 5:03 pm

There was one tornado in your "best" chance area. Eastern Kentucky, which you had in your best chance area, almost had no reported severe weather.

Meanwhile, there were beast mode tornados in your low to moderate area in nw Illinois.

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-11-18, 5:35 pm

jmundie wrote:There was one tornado in your "best" chance area. Eastern Kentucky, which you had in your best chance area, almost had no reported severe weather.
Mundie you evidently didnt read my writeup to go with the pretty little graphic...lol

Mine was more like DR forbes torcon but just best chance at any type of severe weather.. SVR-CON if u will. My outlooks are not intended to be like the SPC's convective outlooks that breakdown the different modes of severe weather and issue probs on those paramters!

HELL..just read teh graphic..its really that simple!! LOW CHANCE... BETTER CHANCE AND BEST CHANCE of severe weather of ANYKIND.

jmundie wrote:Meanwhile, there were beast mode tornados in your low to moderate area in nw Illinois.
LOL..I didnt have a"Moderate" area I had a low..better and best chance at severe weather in general! Neither area represents more of a tornado threat than the other. First..learn to read before you go to trollling me and secondly like I said....I did pretty good with that system!tongue 

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-11-18, 5:48 pm

Cold and possibly even snowy during the Thanksgiving timefreme (Nov26-28). Most local oscillations (NAO/AO/PNA) are progged to become very favorable during this timeframe too.

Below is a graphic produced by weatherbell using european model data. Shows NAO to be sub 1.0 by Thanksgiving which could be conducive for eastern USA snowstorms!

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Reb on 2013-11-18, 7:47 pm

Thanksgiving storm will either be a beast for the mid south(snow on northern edge) or a big rain event here and hop north through west TN IMO

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

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