Fall WX Discussion 2013

It that time of the year in the Rockies. The was a little snow in Utah the other day also.

though its still in fantasy land... todays 12zgfs is indicating a pretty potent storm system which toot has been posting about some already... but following the system its showing 30s for lows for most folks on the board... some ensemble members has this a pretty potent lakes cutter which could lead us to our first fall severe wx event... time wise looking like later part of the first week in October... something to watch for now

0.43" today. 4.55" for the month.  

Well this being the last day of the month, i will have 2.46 inches of rainfall for the month. Rain for the month will be below normal. Huge turn around from last month and the month before. We got .03 hundredths last night.  

Well i know this is a fall outlook but didn't want to start a winter outlook yet, so if this were to come true it would be very nice set up. Look for your city or close to it.   http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=49997&topicid=47364&Itemid=179  

Cold Front + Karen remnants= FAIL here. Even as late as last night, I was expecting at least a half inch of rain, as per MRX, but woke up to .18in of rain. So much for that one. At least it looks to cool down to normal or slightly below for a few days.

Same here also. They talk about a half to one inch of rain with maybe some severe Thunderstorms. We got .09 hundredths of and inch of rain last night. So far this month IMBY i have gotten .12 hundredths of an inch of rainfall. I know we are only into 7th day of the month. But i think October is our driest month of the year around here. Could we be going into a dry or below normal rainfall this coming winter ? Some have point toward that this winter. But will wait and see.

0.26" last night. 0.28" for the month. October is our driest month. 

long range models showing a classic positive pna negative nao pattern.

tennessee storm09 wrote:long range models showing a classic positive pna   negative nao pattern.

You aint kiddin Bruce!

The euro is usually a little too warm but its definately honking for some Brrrrrrrr weather too!

Don't know much about this guy but take a look and see what you think.http://www.geoea.org/2013/10/14/second-half-of-october-a-transition-to-colder-even-snowy/ 

By the way, if this was in the winter it would be nice, maybe if it didn't shut down the GOM. If it did then you might get a lot of clipper systems to keep bringing cold air in and favor up slope snows in the high mountains of Tenn/NC...

windstorm wrote:Don't know much about this guy but take a look and see what you think.http://www.geoea.org/2013/10/14/second-half-of-october-a-transition-to-colder-even-snowy/ 

Interesting....thanks. 

ur welcome..

The Hurricane that was or is affecting Japan will affect our weather. It will shift the Jet Stream over and make it dive down into the Eastern USA. as for now there has been a ridge set up over the Southeastern U.S. This will displace the trough in the west and shift east. Of course everything is subject to change in weather. But model keep showing colder/cooler air coming late month. P.S. I know they don't call it a Hurricane over there it always what part of the world they live in. Typhoon. I guess that the way u spell it. Please take off a point for any miss spell words. My spell checker works on overtime when i am typing.

Typhoons recurving off Japan seem to impact NA like that with about a 2 or 3 week delay. The first I heard and saw of it was when the remnants of Typhoon Guchol pulled us out of last summer's (2012) record heat wave.

Part of it is the effect of the Pacific upper air patterns and the way they steer those storms. The rest is the actual storms themselves as they dive in from Alaska.

WOW...hard to believe no talk about the major cool down next week... sharp trough over the east, setting the stage for not only first frost for areas, but perhaps even a freeze especially in the upper valley regions of state

I see it Bruce, been following it here too, but tbh, I just don't get excited over frost, but, that being said, it has been awhile since we had this kind of cool air in Oct. OHX even has frost advisories for their cwa tonight. Too many clouds here, otherwise it might do it here tonight also.

Last October was way colder then this years. We had frost on like October 10th last year and this year we are getting it October 19th.

GFS is painting some snow showers or flurries by 10-23ish. Especially across Eastern KY.

Wow Ice actually decreased today vs yesterday that isn't good hopefully was just a 1 day melt not a sign..

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/
look at yesterday and todays and flash back and forth and you will see that the yellow on the US side retreats a little since yesterday. Must be a warm up happening today up there for some reason.

Edit. Just looked up the temp map for today and the black circle was where the ice melted. Temps seem to be just barely below freezing there for the high so that probably isn't quite cold enough to allow the ice not to melt with warmer waters to the south. Hopefully that is only reason why and the cold air settles in fast there for winter.

Temps around 20 degrees below normal by next weekend. Big coat weather!  

Toot wrote:Temps around 20 degrees below normal by next weekend. Big coat weather!  

If that happens......Hell to the YEA!