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Fall WX Discussion 2013

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-10-25, 7:55 am

Folks atop Mt Leconte, TN woke up to a light snow accumulation and a bone chilling 14 degrees this morning!

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-10-25, 8:05 am

I like that.
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-10-25, 8:06 am

If the GFS ensembles continue to suggest severe weather for the state around Halloween. The Euro has been back and forth on this and is a little further north taking the severe threat further north also

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-10-25, 8:18 am

IMBY we had a temp of 32.4 today. Low tonight somewhere in the upper 20's to near 30. Depends on which weatherman you are watching. If we have clear sky i look for it to be a little lower than today. That is if the wind dies down.
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Jed33 on 2013-10-25, 10:42 am

Made it to 31 this morning-dropped 4 degrees between 630 and 730 this AM. Thanks to the clouds clearing out at exactly the last hour possible. I expect tonight will be lower, and i'll post later my number in our prediction thread. I want to see how warm we get today and how the clouds behave as they seem to be reforming. I expect that to be temporary though, as the HP moves in, it should squash them later this afternoon.

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by John1122 on 2013-10-25, 3:29 pm

27 this morning. Now the wait for the first legit winter threat begins.

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by John1122 on 2013-10-26, 6:30 am

Sitting at 22 degrees this morning, very frosty out there. Should really accelerate the leaf fall as color peaks this week in my area. Though my walnut trees are bare already.

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-10-26, 7:59 am

Well with big high pressure sitting over us this morning clam wind and IMBY i had 26.8. Coldest so far. Growing season down this way is over by about a week or 2 early. Now on to the white stuff.rock on 
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-10-26, 8:05 am

Temps should be warmer tonight with a forecast of cloudy sky's in most places. Maybe 10 to 15 degress warmer.
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-10-26, 8:40 am

Not seeing this fall bright colors of leaves. I was thinking it might be a good year for fall colors since we had plenty of rain this year. Maybe i need to get out and go look. Am sure there are some great colors out there. But not in my yard and the woods behind me. Most are turning brown and falling off.
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-10-26, 5:28 pm

Monitoring the possibility of a widespread severe wind event late next weekt! Latest euro goes sub 980Mb with a very strong cold front/squall line due to neg tilted sw trough!


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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by VFL on 2013-10-26, 7:53 pm

Toot wrote:Monitoring the possibility of a widespread severe wind event late next weekt! Latest euro goes sub 980Mb with a very strong cold front/squall line due to neg tilted sw trough!

Pants are starting to get tight.
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-10-27, 9:10 am

Toot wrote:Monitoring the possibility of a widespread severe wind event late next weekt! Latest euro goes sub 980Mb with a very strong cold front/squall line due to neg tilted sw trough!

also noted... due to the imprressive wind fiellds being modeled... if anything can get going out ahead will have the ability to rotate... initeresting fall setup i have had a eye on for about week... were getting into nam range now... lets see hot shorter range guidance handles it

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-10-27, 3:18 pm

Mid to late next week a very strong (Sub 980Mb) mid latitude cyclone will drive a strong cold front through the eastern US. At this time and organized wind threat is a high probability!

Damaging winds will be the main threat but Tornados cannot be ruled out just yet. Details will change somewhat over the next couple of days but I already have enough confidence to issue a graphical outlook on this system.

Just keep checking back for changes and updates on this system.

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-10-28, 8:56 pm

Some fall foilage

This one I snapped this afternoon in my neighborhood



And this one was taken up on Newfound Gap yesterday

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Jed33 on 2013-10-28, 10:52 pm

Incredible shot at Newfound Gap Toot!

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by windstorm on 2013-11-02, 12:12 pm

Great Shot. As we are into November now doe s anyone have and ideal what they think this month will be like.? As i stated before WSI tends to go will below normal temps this month but NWS say above. Way in on this if you like.
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-11-02, 5:12 pm

windstorm wrote:Great Shot. As we are into November now doe s anyone have and ideal what they think this month will be like.? As i stated before WSI tends to go will below normal temps this month but NWS say above. Way in on this if you like.
CFS says November will wind up below normal for the most part wstrm!


From my experience If that happens  it usually continues all the way through the winter!
The reason for this is that its progging the Arctic oscillation to drop from here on out to December. If it verifies a Cold November and December would be likely and its been pretty accurate with its longer range progs of oscillations!

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by skillsweather on 2013-11-02, 5:22 pm

Between yesterday and today the ice and snow really exploded really on all sides of the arctic (north pole). It expanded more then it has in 1 day all year that I have seen. Good sign maybe! Smile'

Btw last year was actually a good year for snow it just stayed all in Canada and didn't go south for whatever reason. And we are around a week ahead of last year in ice and snow coverage in the North pole area so now we just need something to push the snow further south whatever does that lol.

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Jed33 on 2013-11-02, 9:53 pm

Had several nice showers today. Not really measurable, but neat to see nonetheless. I was in Sevierville today and actually saw a bolt of lightning and heard it thunder-first thunder i've heard in I don't know how long. I don't know how much it rained there though, as the cloud was developing and had already slid east before I heard it thunder. I did read where isolated thunder with small hail was possible, I imagine that was one of those cells. Any ways, when I can, i'll upload a pic. Of the rainbow I got jetr at the house after one of those showers

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by IceMan23 on 2013-11-02, 10:03 pm

I had a friend in Jefferson City call me and say that it was raining pretty good for about 5 minutes and that there was very small hail falling to the ground too. I was surprised by this, but when NWS confirmed that hail was falling in some spots in their AFD.

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Jed33 on 2013-11-02, 10:14 pm

Rainbow after a shower here at the house today
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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by IceMan23 on 2013-11-02, 10:16 pm

Very beautiful pic! Thanks for sharing.

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by tennessee storm09 on 2013-11-03, 6:12 am

Toot wrote:
windstorm wrote:Great Shot. As we are into November now doe s anyone have and ideal what they think this month will be like.? As i stated before WSI tends to go will below normal temps this month but NWS say above. Way in on this if you like.
CFS says November will wind up below normal for the most part wstrm!


From my experience If that happens  it usually continues all the way through the winter!
The reason for this is that its progging the Arctic oscillation to drop from here on out to December. If it verifies a Cold November and December would be likely and its been pretty accurate with its longer range progs of oscillations!
if the gfs is to be trusted... it be quite bit warmer than average...also starting to bite on a severe weather event though itsstill on the edge of voodo land... buts its been very consistent with it

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

Post by Toot on 2013-11-04, 8:07 am

Good mornin wx nerds and those who genrally just like to argue about the weather. There will be one more strong cold front before a strong mid November warmup commences!

However I dont expect the warmup to last very long before Old Man winter blows in to stay! So.. since this is likely the last warm weather you will see for many months you may want to enjoy it.


Above is the American model (GFS) showing the warm temps moving in mid month with temps anywhere from 8-15 degrees above normal!

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Re: Fall WX Discussion 2013

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