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Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

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Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by Toot on 2013-10-27, 6:39 pm

Concerning the upcoming powerful mid latitude cyclone that will produce widespread severe weather over a rather large area. I cannot help to think that the best analog for this system is the Midwest bomb that occurred October 25-27, 2010 and I it bottomed out at 955Mb setting midwest low pressure records!

Even tho the center of the cyclone was centered over a 1000 miles away near the Canadian border it still produced an intense squall line ahead of the cold front it dragged through the eastern US with wind damage reports as far south as the Louisiana/Mississippi border area!

It also produced many tornados and wind damage from the OH/TN valleys into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast! It was classified as a serial Derecho but this one is only progged down to about 975Mb which is not a whole lot weaker than the 2010 bomb!

Now.. back to the system at hand..here is the winds progged by the GFS at 2,500 feet above the surface which could easily be transferred down to the ground with such a dynamic and powerful system. Im usually not so bullish about severe weather 4-5 days away but guidance is in outsanding agreement and each run keeps showing the same thing every single time.

At this point I am expecting a long lived wind damage event from the central plains on into the eastern US. I wil probably get some flack for saying this but a serial Derecho is certainly not out of the question! Im not saying its gonna be as bad as the 2010 system but I do think its quite comparable if guidance models are correct.

As you can see along the squall line its progging winds from 40 knots which is around (53mph Near Lousiana) to near 70 Kts (which is around 80Mph near the great lakes region).
Latest 925mb guidance for upcoming system



2010 bomb

Sat animation of Oct 2010 bomb


Storm reports from that system for Oct 26


MSLP gradient 2010 bomb


My forecast for the upcoming system

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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by windstorm on 2013-10-28, 11:27 am

2010 October, if am thinking right there was a small tornado that touch down for a short time about two miles NW of me. It drop down and back up really quick. I seen the clouds rolling by but not the tornado . I didn't put a lot of thinking about that system because the main energy source was like maybe 800 to 1000 miles away. But that's weather, you never know.
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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by Toot on 2013-10-28, 5:56 pm

SPC coming on board with my thinking!


SPC wrote:ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
  ACUS48 KWNS 280859
  SPC AC 280859

  DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0359 AM CDT MON OCT 28 2013

  VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

  ...DISCUSSION...
  A SEVERE RISK REMAINS APPARENT ESPECIALLY ON DAY 4/THURSDAY. THIS
  WILL BE AS A CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
  EASTWARD-ACCELERATING COLD FRONT SPREAD EASTWARD AND INTERCEPT A
  SEASONALLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS FROM THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS RIVER
  VALLEY INTO THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS. WHILE EARLY-DAY CONVECTION IS
  AN UNCERTAINTY FACTOR...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE
  /OR CERTAIN/ COMBINATION OF MODEST INSTABILITY/STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
  WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS/TN VALLEY...ALTHOUGH
  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT. GIVEN A
  VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER
  SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY A FEW STRONG/
  WILL BE POSSIBLE.


  FARTHER NORTH ON DAY 4/THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DEGREE OF
  DESTABILIZATION IS UNCERTAIN...A SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS
  TORNADO/ RISK CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE OH
  VALLEY/NEARBY GREAT LAKES. THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF A
  STRONGLY FORCED/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
  ROBUST VERTICAL SHEAR/FORCING FOR ASCENT.

  INTO DAY 5/FRIDAY...THE STRONGEST UPPER TROUGH-ASSOCIATED ASCENT
  SHOULD SPREAD AWAY FROM THE RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. EVEN SO...A
  MOIST AIRMASS/VERY STRONG SHEAR COULD ACCOUNT FOR SOME STRONGER
  STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL
  PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
This should all transfer eastward and I will fine tune my graphic tomorrow evening

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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by windstorm on 2013-10-28, 7:20 pm

One of our local weatherman thinks that as the front moves east it may lose some of it's punch. But he say he would not rule out possible tornado. But said they will fine tune it as the day get's closer. This does not mean that everyone will get tornadoes . But as of right now the chance is there. They are still not sure how much instability is there . So will keep watching. But am thinking someone in the south may get hit by one. They, as of right now think front will enter my area during the evening. But there could also be some super cells out in front of this.
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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by windstorm on 2013-10-28, 7:23 pm

Also looks like a rainy night for Halloween across Tenn.
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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by Toot on 2013-10-28, 8:54 pm

I dont think the organized wind threat will lose any puch after dark. Im expecting a long duration wind event! Possibly a serial Derecho!!

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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by wxgeek on 2013-10-28, 10:31 pm

If anyone listens to Frank Strait, tonight's blog post about 5 minutes in he highlights Mid-TN and says he's worried about shear profiles looking good for tornadoes and severe weather on Thursday.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/strait/stormy-this-week-some-tornadoes-even/19361324

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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by windstorm on 2013-10-29, 8:10 am

They also may need to issue a high wind warning for the Mts. Some are saying as front approaches instability will be low to start off with. Just keep watching and hoping it don't get bad. In my area it will be kind of close to dark. This is a very bad time, if tornados develop. Keep your eyes to the sky and ear tune in on your local radio or TV.
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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by Toot on 2013-10-29, 10:22 pm

SPC





My forecast

If you have been following me you know that I have been talking about the possibility of organized and widespread severe weather for well over a week now and long before anyone else ever mentioned it! Keying in on significant storm systems in the extended range is my specialty.

Now that its getting close to go time here is the latest update.

A very strong mid latitude cyclone will cause widespread severe weather across most of the eastern united states on Thursday and Friday! Even though the storms center is hundreds of miles away to the north and near the Canadian border the wind fields down into the eastern US are very impressive at all levels to say the least!

I expect MANY wind damage reports with some Tornado reports also.. especially in the red sahded areas! There is even the possibility of a strong Tornado or two in the red shaded area. Folks in all of the shaded areas will need to keep a close eye on their local weather Thursday and Friday!

I have produced a very detailed graphic tonight to breakdown my thoughts on this powerful cold season low pressure system! A quick breakdown of the graphic is as follows...Severe weather is slightly possible in the yellow areas...moderately poossible in the orange areas and likely in the red shaded areas!


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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by Toot on 2013-10-30, 8:28 am

The storm prediction center continues to adjust their convective outlooks/severe weather probs! Looking more and more like mine. The only difference is that mine was first issued a few of days ago.



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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by Toot on 2013-10-30, 8:53 am

Folks you rarely EVER see a low pressure system this deep/strong in the eastern US! The GFS (American model) has it bombing out to 970Mb!!!! That is a VERY VERY deep for a mid latitude cyclone at this latitude!

Bombogenesis will likely occur Thursday into Friday!

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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by Toot on 2013-10-31, 8:49 am

And we begin..Tornado watch issued for most of Louisiana until 2pmCDT. There will probably be many more issued today and tomorrow!

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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by windstorm on 2013-10-31, 12:22 pm

Am watching this and am sure some watches and maybe warning may be issue. But where i am, and i could be way off track here) but am thinking as it get to the mountains here in east/SE TN, Chattanooga, we will have wind, heavy rain anywhere from 1 to two inches and thunderstorms but to me severe is looking less likely. I mean there is that chance always. Reason being is the air as of right now is stable and yes we will have a low level jet zipping along with a cold front. But the air behind it is not that much difference, in other words there not a sharp turn to cold temps. And yes they could issue a watch/warning for my area but not seeing a big break out in my area. If i miss it, it won't be the first time. If the sun was out i would be more likely to worry. Also as the rain moves in it will continue to keep the air cool. Well that my 2 cents worth on this. I may have to eat my words on this one. And there is always a chance for super cells to build up and you just can't predict where these will line up. Two to 3 years ago a super cell move out of Huntsville, Alabama fade out and just as it got to about Tenn bam it blow up again and 4 miles from me they had a tornado. I know i may be jumping off a Cliff here but i think i will stay with this.
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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by chaser2b on 2013-10-31, 1:04 pm

windstorm wrote:Am watching this and am sure some watches and maybe warning may be issue. But where i am, and i could be way off track here) but am thinking as it get to the mountains here in east/SE TN, Chattanooga, we will have wind, heavy rain anywhere from 1 to two inches and thunderstorms but to me severe is looking less likely. I mean there is that chance always. Reason being is the air as of right now is stable and yes we will have a low level jet zipping along with a cold front. But the air behind it is not that much difference, in other words there not a sharp turn to cold temps. And yes they could issue a watch/warning for my area but not seeing a big break out in my area. If i miss it, it won't be the first time.   If the sun was out i would be more likely to worry.  Also as the rain moves in it will continue to keep the air cool. Well that my 2 cents worth on this. I may have to eat my words on this one. And there is always a chance for super cells to build up and you just can't predict where these will line up. Two to 3 years ago a super cell move out of Huntsville, Alabama fade out and just as it got to about Tenn bam it blow up again and 4 miles from me they had a tornado. I know i may be jumping off a Cliff here but i think i will stay with this.
I tend to feel the same way about this as you do. A cold, blustery rain with an occasional severe thunderstorm warning due to wind, and a tornado warning every once in a while due to a possible weak spin up from the massive amount of shear overhead.

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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by jmundie on 2013-10-31, 4:04 pm

Toot wrote:I dont think the organized wind threat will lose any puch after dark. Im expecting a long duration wind event! Possibly a serial Derecho!!
Where's my serial derecho???????????????????????

Toot - its looking increasingly like there won't even be any isolated severe in the entire state.

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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by jmundie on 2013-10-31, 4:05 pm


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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by Toot on 2013-10-31, 6:27 pm

jmundie wrote:

Toot - its looking increasingly like there won't even be any isolated severe in the entire state.
DERP!! retard 



LOL Mundie... its obvious that you dont understand the severe setup with this one! A Tornado watch is likely (80% chance) in the next few hours in this area the SPC has highlighted in their new MCD


And yes that area was shaded in my "high" chance of severe weather graphic days ago!




Last edited by Toot on 2013-10-31, 6:40 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by Toot on 2013-10-31, 6:32 pm

Low level night jet starting to howl!



Her's the new TOR watch!




Last edited by Toot on 2013-10-31, 9:34 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by Toot on 2013-10-31, 6:47 pm

Tornado Warning down in MS

Code:
TORNADO WARNING
MSC129-312315-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0071.131031T2242Z-131031T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
542 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SMITH COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 542 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS INDICATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
  RALEIGH MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  RALEIGH BY 550 PM CDT...
  PINEVILLE BY 605 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE COVER NOW.

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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by Toot on 2013-10-31, 7:08 pm

The area shaded in red will need to be watched for discrete supercells that could possibly rotate and produce a Tornado or two over the next couple of hours! I expect these cells will become more linear with time and transform more into an organized squall line/wind event



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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by Toot on 2013-10-31, 7:14 pm

As I expected 0-1km Helicity values are very impressive over the OH/TN valleys which is why I shaded this area in red days ago indicating the best chance to see severe storms!


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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by Toot on 2013-10-31, 8:29 pm

Very warm for this time of night due to strong warm advection out ahead of the cold front. The mid latitude cyclone will begin to rapidly deepen as the upper level shortwave starts to take on a negative tilt!. It wouldnt surprise me to see temps rise instead of fall in many areas tonight in the eastern US!



Currently showing 75 degrees in Knoxvegas torch 

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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by Toot on 2013-10-31, 8:47 pm

Several tornado warnings near the KY/TN border along the MS river!







Oh Mundie..where did you run off to? LOL

Here is the current graphic from OHX

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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by jmundie on 2013-10-31, 8:53 pm

Serial derecho?

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Re: Halloween Timeframe Cyclone to produce severe wx

Post by Dyersburg Weather on 2013-10-31, 8:56 pm

jmundie wrote:
Toot wrote:I dont think the organized wind threat will lose any puch after dark. Im expecting a long duration wind event! Possibly a serial Derecho!!
Where's my serial derecho???????????????????????

Toot - its looking increasingly like there won't even be any isolated severe in the entire state.

You got a little ahead of yourself Mundie. Tor Warning right across the river as i type. Things atarting to fire nicely.

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